The thing to watch out for right now, is will the Americans be willing to (rather, capable of) regime change in Bangladesh?
Will they take this step to upset the apple cart, which will surely push Bangladesh more firmly and decisively into the Chinese camp, which they sort of are in, already?
I do not think it will be a top-down action from America because it means direct interference in the domestic matters of BD.
Now, please think about the repercussions in the immediate future in the politics of BD when
1) America did not invite BD to attend the democracy conference
2) Murad Hassan is expelled but could not enter Canada or UAE,
3) RAB high officers are barred from entering the USA,
4) General Aziz Ahmed is also barred from entering the USA.
5) Engineering student Abrar was killed.
6) Note also that the Chinese ambassador in Dhaka went out of his way yesterday to support BAL as the mother of democracy.
All these things will force BAL to weaken its hold on press freedom. I suspect there will be international human rights movements that will force BAL govt to open files on the disappeared persons. RAB will be discredited. Think also under what circumstances Col. (?) Sinha was killed.
I believe this govt will take a very balanced approach towards RAB operations in the immediate future, not Asaduzzaman Khan-style operations.
Once it does it, its days will be automatically numbered. BD exports almost all the garments to EU and the US. It is very easy for America to twist BAL hands by imposing semi-sanctions, not immediately, and some other methods.
The first point is Indian support BAL wants people to believe in. It has been a big sales point and BAL kept on using this Indian Dhamki to do anything it wants or steal the vote boxes as usual.
I expect the US actions will weaken Indian influence in the minds of people here. I believe BAL will no more be able to steal votes. I expect a fair voting in the next election if the US administration keeps on pressing BAL.
I wonder, how the BAL Chetona group will respond to what I wrote. They are burning with rage. To them, America is the greatest Razakar country.
But finally, I want the reinstating of the Caretaker Govt as it was before. General Moin destroyed this institution by giving BAL a 2/3rd majority in the hope that he would be elected the President of Bangladesh. He was not and was expelled from BD.
