First Sino-American War will Inflict Catastrophic Losses on China, says Rand Report

[Beidou2020]

How do decide what is a good deal for USA? And American can decide which American or which American city to be destroyed by China?
Which sane person can think this is a good deal if half American population will be killed in a war with China and China destroyed? But truth is.....

USA will be destroyed. China will also make sure Vietnam and India will not survive.

US won't do a damn thing to China. They know it and China knows it too. That's why China is militarising the SCS islands. China knows the US won't do jack.

PLA technology is advancing rapidly and the technology gap is being closed very quickly. PLA's firepower is increasing too which makes its enemies reluctant to get into a war with China.

The US is afraid of a shooting war with China, that's why they can't stop China fully militarising the SCS islands. If the PLA was weak, the US would have already destroyed the SCS islands. They can't do that anymore.

The US also remembers the embarrassment they got the last time they picked a war with China.

Once bitten, twice shy.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

the article is right with only small mistake that US will not even face a small loss because the good boyz of US will fight it for them.

 

[gambit]

Nobody know what will happen in the next ten yrs, China military strength only grow bigger as time go by since China increase military expenditure for spending on military weapons, for better train and better paid soldier to promote higher soldier morality and the improvement of soldier professionalism, China increase spending on weapon R&D to close the gap with the US military capacity 10 yrs into the future. China main focus on the capacity of China military to defend China near sea and space, China build up the military for the offensive strike on the US military base in Asia. Who know when China being attack by many nation, will China not escalate the war into a totally MAD nuclear war. US only have the upperhand against China becuase US surrounded China with major base in the Asia and pacific. That only the advantages US still have against China 10 yrs from now.

I joined this forum in '09. Started debating and debunking Chinese out-of-this-world claims about the J-20. Since then, how many J-20 have been built ?

You think it will take 10 yrs to root out the corruption in the PLA ? The rot that been there since the end of WW II and thru the Cold War decades ? In order to cleanse the PLA within 10 yrs, China must get rid of the PLA's entire upper management, which means civilian personnel as well as all the generals and admirals. You can bet your next yr's salary that Xi Jinping have no idea how much money these generals and admirals stashed away overseas. But Xi cannot afford to fire all of them. Despite their incompetence and corrupt nature, they know the PLA better than he does. If all of them leave, either voluntarily or axed, so will each man's immediate deputy. That mean each branch of service will be led by the third in command.

If there is going to be a US-China war, the PLAN will be sunk, the PLAAF will be grounded, and the PLA will be wondering WTF happened.

 

[Star Wars]

Truth is, even if RUSSIA and China came together, i doubt they would be able to defeat the US Navy. Within the first 1 week US would have total naval supremacy in the region. IF Japan and South Korea is involved. Chinese Airforce would be limited to protecting its mainland.... WHIle Navy would be busy protecting the docks...

 

[phancong]

I joined this forum in '09. Started debating and debunking Chinese out-of-this-world claims about the J-20. Since then, how many J-20 have been built ?

You think it will take 10 yrs to root out the corruption in the PLA ? The rot that been there since the end of WW II and thru the Cold War decades ? In order to cleanse the PLA within 10 yrs, China must get rid of the PLA's entire upper management, which means civilian personnel as well as all the generals and admirals. You can bet your next yr's salary that Xi Jinping have no idea how much money these generals and admirals stashed away overseas. But Xi cannot afford to fire all of them. Despite their incompetence and corrupt nature, they know the PLA better than he does. If all of them leave, either voluntarily or axed, so will each man's immediate deputy. That mean each branch of service will be led by the third in command.

If there is going to be a US-China war, the PLAN will be sunk, the PLAAF will be grounded, and the PLA will be wondering WTF happened.

Now you bring corruption in China military will cause China to lose a war vs the US, last time I checked there were hundred of US naval officers were relieve off their duty becuase of corruption charge, not like US military immune to corruption their rank and file. You can dismiss China advancement in military technology 10 yrs down the road that China military technology will never reach parity with US but China government is committed in their military modernization in the future to match US military capacities, China have a well established military industry, a well fund military research with plentiful scientist and engineering of all field to lead China in researching key military technology, time on China side develop and mature key military technology. Nothing stay static and all thing advance with time. Easier for scientists to develop next generation technologies due to the advancement of material science with speed of supercomputing that can accelerate the R&D in military technology. China had successfully conducted the hypersonic missile that proved Chinese scientists highly capable in develop next generation military technology in China.

 

[gambit]

Now you bring corruption in China military will cause China to lose a war vs the US, last time I checked there were hundred of US naval officers were relieve off their duty becuase of corruption charge, not like US military immune to corruption their rank and file.

I never said the US military is free of bad people and their misdeeds. But the PLA is in a higher league of corruption compares to the US military.

For example...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-military-vehicles-idUSBRE93R08620130428

China's new leadership is seeking to dismantle a system of privilege which has allowed the drivers of military vehicles to do as they please on the roads.

On Sunday the Chinese military began replacing license plates on its cars and trucks to crack down on legions of vehicles, many of them plush luxury brands, which routinely break traffic laws and fill up with free gas.

No. In the US, the military do not have such privileges. If a military vehicle, such as a truck transporting heavy outsized cargo, needs special treatment, the local base/post commander must PETITION the local civilian authority for that special treatment, and only for a specified time.

In China, it is well known, even to today, that a general or admiral can violate traffoc laws and get away with it. And if they can get away with local traffic laws, who knows how much they got away with it unknown.

The corruption in the PLA is so bad that not even the Chinese themselves cannot distract by pointing the finger at US.

You can dismiss China advancement in military technology 10 yrs down the road that China military technology will never reach parity with US but China government is committed in their military modernization in the future to match US military capacities, China have a well established military industry, a well fund military research with plentiful scientist and engineering of all field to lead China in researching key military technology, time on China side develop and mature key military technology. Nothing stay static and all thing advance with time. Easier for scientists to develop next generation technologies due to the advancement of material science with speed of supercomputing that can accelerate the R&D in military technology. China had successfully conducted the hypersonic missile that proved Chinese scientists highly capable in develop next generation military technology in China.

All the commitments in China is not going to give them license to bypass the laws of physics. It took US about 10 yrs to field the F-22 and about 10 yrs for the F-35. It is now approaching 8 yrs for the J-20 and, answer this, how many J-20 built ?

Hypersonic missile ? Any deployed yet ? But a shooting fight between the US and China could happen NEXT GODDAMN EFF-ING YEAR.

Do you even THINK before you post ?

 

[yusheng]

Rand once reported many times about the war among taiwan strait, every time China lose even in 2005, Rand still say that China lose. seems it is not a scientific analysis but a political support.

and this time is still same , as i see, a psychological comfort for USA allies,

the report describes that the war was limited to sea battle and China did not attack USA territory, then China suffered great loss. today any war is unrestricted warfare, for example, currency war can destory a country's stork market, bank system;

is China or Rand so naive , stupit to confine the war on the sea?

the report also mentioned that after war, China will fall apart, but US will united as usual, LOL, the US is falling apart now, anyone remember what Hillary said several days ago on her presidential election speeches?

obviously, the report only pleased American policians , that is the reason Rand can earn money and make living.

 

[jhungary]

Nobody know what will happen in the next ten yrs, China military strength only grow bigger as time go by since China increase military expenditure for spending on military weapons, for better train and better paid soldier to promote higher soldier morality and the improvement of soldier professionalism, China increase spending on weapon R&D to close the gap with the US military capacity 10 yrs into the future. China main focus on the capacity of China military to defend China near sea and space, China build up the military for the offensive strike on the US military base in Asia. Who know when China being attack by many nation, will China not escalate the war into a totally MAD nuclear war. US only have the upperhand against China becuase US surrounded China with major base in the Asia and pacific. That only the advantages US still have against China 10 yrs from now.

Now you bring corruption in China military will cause China to lose a war vs the US, last time I checked there were hundred of US naval officers were relieve off their duty becuase of corruption charge, not like US military immune to corruption their rank and file. You can dismiss China advancement in military technology 10 yrs down the road that China military technology will never reach parity with US but China government is committed in their military modernization in the future to match US military capacities, China have a well established military industry, a well fund military research with plentiful scientist and engineering of all field to lead China in researching key military technology, time on China side develop and mature key military technology. Nothing stay static and all thing advance with time. Easier for scientists to develop next generation technologies due to the advancement of material science with speed of supercomputing that can accelerate the R&D in military technology. China had successfully conducted the hypersonic missile that proved Chinese scientists highly capable in develop next generation military technology in China.

If a war happened between US and China anytime in the future, unless China can bring the war into mainland US, the loser is always going to be China even tho if all the attacking force US send got wipe out. Still, US loses only Material, but China will lose its infrastructure.

The problem is, how do China bring the war to Mainland US?

This cannot be done under the current political environment. For US to invade China, there are numerous spring board they can choose, either launch an attack from South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines. They can launch limited capability war designed to target and damage Chinese infrastructure instead of winning the war.

On the other hand, if China want to attack the US, they only have 2 spring boards, either launch an attack from Canada or Mexico, to reach either one of them, the Chinese would be require to attack or make deal with several country, the Chinese need to negotiate a deal with Russia, then attack Japan and South Korea, then Attack all the way to Alaska and then Canada, there are no way China cannot attack the US with Mexico unless they invade and capture Hawaii or go West and conquer the whole of Europe. That would have taken the edge off the attacking Chinese force.

Even with China being on par with technology with the US, there would not be guarantee way the Chinese can achieve that, that means the only way left is a Thermo-Nuclear solution........

 

[yusheng]

what is the war aim for? not to suiside by both sides.
why sould China send any soldier to usa land?
if not nuclear, then Sino-American war is consuming war, who is more potential in industrial power?
then you need a very specific calculation about the consuming.
did Rand give out such calsulation?

i don't think USA is well prepared to war with its insufficient "ammunition".

for one example, as i know, China can destory half, 100+, of usa main military satellites in a week or less, and China CZ11 can launch a Substitutes satellite in 24 hours when the original one is destroied, yet, the usa needs 72 hours.
can usa win at the very first stage, satellite war? not likely.

last week, Goldman sachs was fined $36.3 million for revealing the FED, the federal reserve, secret information, in fact, GS only pointed out the uas stock market may collapse in the near future. why FED so nervous and angry? so what China will do when she own 1.2 trilliion United States government bond, will China lend money to usa and finance usa to attack herself?

just two examples to help our simple minded friends from usa.

what 1.2 trillion usd can do:
83 'ford" ac, or 24880 MIA2, or 16586 F22,
BUT IN FACT, USA ONLY HAS 11AC, <>9000"M1", AND <200 F22

 

[xunzi]

u.s never declared war on north korea or china that's a fact.

It is an informal Sino-US war. I suppose you can call this one the officia 1stl US_Sino war.

Anyhow, I don't mind the losses as war loss is expected. We do have a lot of legacy war weapons that need to be used or throw away in the war. The exciting part is the aftermath if they predict is accurate to be a stalemate . Then that good as it will finally give us the final motivation to ramp up our defence speeding and go after the US territories in the 2nd war. When it comes to rebuild a nation from scratch, if we take 2nd place, nobody dare to claim 1st.

 

[Beast]

If a war happened between US and China anytime in the future, unless China can bring the war into mainland US, the loser is always going to be China even tho if all the attacking force US send got wipe out. Still, US loses only Material, but China will lose its infrastructure.

The problem is, how do China bring the war to Mainland US?

This cannot be done under the current political environment. For US to invade China, there are numerous spring board they can choose, either launch an attack from South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines. They can launch limited capability war designed to target and damage Chinese infrastructure instead of winning the war.

On the other hand, if China want to attack the US, they only have 2 spring boards, either launch an attack from Canada or Mexico, to reach either one of them, the Chinese would be require to attack or make deal with several country, the Chinese need to negotiate a deal with Russia, then attack Japan and South Korea, then Attack all the way to Alaska and then Canada, there are no way China cannot attack the US with Mexico unless they invade and capture Hawaii or go West and conquer the whole of Europe. That would have taken the edge off the attacking Chinese force.

Even with China being on par with technology with the US, there would not be guarantee way the Chinese can achieve that, that means the only way left is a Thermo-Nuclear solution........

Bring war to mainland USA? Easy... Plus, it cannot be intercepted.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-successfully-tests-hypersonic-weapon-system/

 

[yantong1980]

Another flame-baiter BS, laughable that still any 'sheep' believe that c**ppy Western propaganda expert. Think-tank LOL!

 

[jkroo]

Mad dogs sell wars all the time.

 

[phancong]

I never said the US military is free of bad people and their misdeeds. But the PLA is in a higher league of corruption compares to the US military.

For example...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-military-vehicles-idUSBRE93R08620130428

No. In the US, the military do not have such privileges. If a military vehicle, such as a truck transporting heavy outsized cargo, needs special treatment, the local base/post commander must PETITION the local civilian authority for that special treatment, and only for a specified time.

In China, it is well known, even to today, that a general or admiral can violate traffoc laws and get away with it. And if they can get away with local traffic laws, who knows how much they got away with it unknown.

The corruption in the PLA is so bad that not even the Chinese themselves cannot distract by pointing the finger at US.


All the commitments in China is not going to give them license to bypass the laws of physics. It took US about 10 yrs to field the F-22 and about 10 yrs for the F-35. It is now approaching 8 yrs for the J-20 and, answer this, how many J-20 built ?

Hypersonic missile ? Any deployed yet ? But a shooting fight between the US and China could happen NEXT GODDAMN EFF-ING YEAR.

Do you even THINK before you post ?

You freaking thinking there is a chance of a total war break out between the US and and China anytime soon? You freaking out of you mind, China won't escalate any serious tension to fight a war with the US for now, you never know 10 yrs from now when China complete fielding 3 or 4 aircraft carriers group and build enough 5 generation fight jet then who know China might fight a war with the US in SCS. The only way there will be a war between US and China only if US stage a incident for the US to start a naval war against China.

If a war happened between US and China anytime in the future, unless China can bring the war into mainland US, the loser is always going to be China even tho if all the attacking force US send got wipe out. Still, US loses only Material, but China will lose its infrastructure.

The problem is, how do China bring the war to Mainland US?

This cannot be done under the current political environment. For US to invade China, there are numerous spring board they can choose, either launch an attack from South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines. They can launch limited capability war designed to target and damage Chinese infrastructure instead of winning the war.

On the other hand, if China want to attack the US, they only have 2 spring boards, either launch an attack from Canada or Mexico, to reach either one of them, the Chinese would be require to attack or make deal with several country, the Chinese need to negotiate a deal with Russia, then attack Japan and South Korea, then Attack all the way to Alaska and then Canada, there are no way China cannot attack the US with Mexico unless they invade and capture Hawaii or go West and conquer the whole of Europe. That would have taken the edge off the attacking Chinese force.

Even with China being on par with technology with the US, there would not be guarantee way the Chinese can achieve that, that means the only way left is a Thermo-Nuclear solution........

Any idiot can see China limitation in the invasion of the US mainland in the present or the future because of US advantage in geopolitical and protected by the US mainland location on the planet. As I said US smart to surround China with US troop in Asia de factor of China declared a world war 3 if China fight a war with the US, all the Asian country will be destroy but US mainland won't be touch. In the scenerio of a war with the US, China best chance to escalate a all out nuclear war to ensure MAD on the whole world, no sane Chinese leader will allow US destroy China in a conventional war without China escalate a war into a nuclear.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

We can do that. We got hurt and China got destroyed. Good deal.

We do not need to go as far as what RAND said. All we have to do is sink the PLAN and China will be as good as defeated. But if we cannot sink the PLAN, then we could still scared the shit out of it that the PLAN would be confined to ports.

Lol that was always US's dream for such scenario that they will get away without a scratch but US strategists known that US will be consume in the process of war with China,, All your bullsh1t is just a self comfort statement, if there is war with China, US will have chance to fight with a worthy adversay instead of cowardly bully small nations.