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FGFA or Rafale "Which One"

Storm Force

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April 7th 2013 I posted this thread


MMRCA may be scrapped by year end
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Indian Defence Forum' started by Storm Force, Apr 7, 2013.
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  1. Apr 7, 2013 #1

    Storm ForceSENIOR MEMBER
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    News from SEVERAL sources in New Delhi in MOD and media are suggesting that indians are having a MASSIVE CHANGE OF HEART on the whole MMRCA project/saga for the IAF.

    NEGOTIATIONS between the winners Dassult/rafale and the MOD in New Delhi have actually ceased for over week

    Intially it was cited that there was DIFFERENCES in who shares the work load and TOT absorbtion between HAL & DASSULTS preferred indian partner AMBANI RELIANCE industries.

    TODAY THE NEWS indicates that the INDIANS have several misgivings

    1. THE TOTAL price could be as high as $26 billion ($6 billion for weapons alone)
    2. FRENCH are not willing to share 100% TOT as was previously suggested
    3. FRENCH want to control production as they see FIT
    4. timescales ARE CLASHING with proposed INDUCTION OF FGFA IN 2019-2020

    coupled with FINANCIAL DEFENSE CUTS coming into EFFECT the indians ARE READY to ditch this hyper expensive deal.

    THIS DEAL WAS SCHEDULED TO BE CONCLUDED in Dec 2012 THEN summer 2013.

    all contracts communication currently IS ON HOLD
______________________________________________________________________________

At the time perhaps I saw things developing that many of our senior posters did not see at the time !!!!!!

I was ridiculed by some experts at the time ....

I want to ASK a question which I KNOW for certain is being discussed by the IAF & MOD and the indian military as we speak

WHICH OF THE TWO HUGE FIGHTER PROJECTS DO WE DROP FGFA OR RAFALE
 
Stupid question to ask in the first place. Neither of the two are mutually inclusive or competitors in terms of capabilities. The FGFA is a low observable air dominance/secondary strike fighter designed to win the airspace for India from day 1. The Rafale is a multi-mission general purpose puncher designed to provide strike capability for its offensive campaign.
Each is a different niche for a combat capability with only a certain overlap in combat capabilities. The only possible debate there is depends on whether the MMRCA would still be relevant by the time it comes in full force or should the IAF persist a little longer and push the MoD for the AMCA.

So, you still end up being ridiculed for this idea. I would not think the IAF would be this stupid as to debate this in terms of capabilities but rather available budget vis-a-vis payoff. So far, the FGFA still has the better payoff than the already late MMRCA program.
 
The simple truth is that two things have happened that have brought IAF to this cross roads since 2007 which was the date that the MMRCA need was openly discussed.

1. The timelines of Rafale induction & FGFA will cross into each other by 2020 onwards. No way can India afford the cost of 2 different fighters costing over $140 million each at the same time.

2. IAF took so long debating over MMRCA that thew world and in particular PLAAF arte getting ready to induct a fifth gen fighter in 2020 making Rafale almost semi redundant by 2020+

IMO IAF wil have to ditch one project and completely nail its mast to the other one.

They simply cant afford a estimated $25 billion each for both projects even spread between 2015-2030

which one I ask

Oscar before ridiculing you should have waited for second post
 
Go for Rafael and ditch FGFA as many Indians said on PDF that it is best jet as per IAF evaluations. :D
 
Basel

My Guess the IAF due to budget issues mentioned above will do the opposite.

They will forfill a MMRCA role by upgrading Mirage2000-5 mig29smt & Jaguars

And go early induction of PAK FA in 2020 with a desire to move to FGFA multi role in 2024.

I think the workshare debate is just india.s way of pulling out of deal
 
The simple truth is that two things have happened that have brought IAF to this cross roads since 2007 which was the date that the MMRCA need was openly discussed.

1. The timelines of Rafale induction & FGFA will cross into each other by 2020 onwards. No way can India afford the cost of 2 different fighters costing over $140 million each at the same time.

2. IAF took so long debating over MMRCA that thew world and in particular PLAAF arte getting ready to induct a fifth gen fighter in 2020 making Rafale almost semi redundant by 2020+

IMO IAF wil have to ditch one project and completely nail its mast to the other one.

They simply cant afford a estimated $25 billion each for both projects even spread between 2015-2030

which one I ask

Oscar before ridiculing you should have waited for second post
They are not mutually exclusive, NOTHING the IAF has said would indicate they are. Just by 2022 the Indian military is going to spend $620 BILLION USD on defence (capex and opex) and from 2022-27 the figure will be more than $800 billion they can afford the two quite easily, case closed.
 
i think the best option for IAF is to buy Rafale ... IAF already operate some 200+ Su-30mki Air Superiority Fighter , so Rafale will increase the Land Attack and Strike Capability ..Rafale will remain unmatched in South asia until China introduce their first J-31 , and J-20 ..
 
Oscar.

You think its stupid

I think its a good question.

Just like the Thread I started on 7th April 2013 WAS A SENSIBLE observation.

I am referring to budget issues NOT combat roles.

Your getting on a HIGH HORSE not reading or understanding the thread
 
No way can India afford the cost of 2 different fighters costing over $140 million each at the same time.
The Rafale doesn't cost anywhere near that per unit.

PLAAF arte getting ready to induct a fifth gen fighter in 2020 making Rafale almost semi redundant by 2020+
The Rafale will give these PLAAF "5th gen fighters" a serious run for their money.

They simply cant afford a estimated $25 billion each for both projects even spread between 2015-2030
a) I've told you this $25 billion figure for the Rafale deal is 100% BS
b) You aren't even factoring the main reason behind the MMRCA deal in its current form (the industrial benefits it brings)
c) 50% of the cost of the deal will be invested BACK INTO INDIA
d)Based on what have you come to the conclusions the IAF "can't afford" them? Are you an auditor for the MoD now? Don't you think the IAF know better than you?
e) what makes you think that in 2025 when India is spending more than $100 Billion on defence every year that it won't be able to cover the payments for the Rafale (which should be all but paid for by then anyway) and FGFA?

I am referring to budget issues NOT combat roles.
And what do you know about the budget position of the IAF? Seriously? You've created this stupid threads before based on absolutely NOTHING.
 
Yes I created this thread in April 2013.

AND I WILL STICK MY NECK OUT AND SAY THIS that By April this year India will walk away from rafale deal.

And the reason will be cost AS I SUGGESTED nearly 2 years ago.

Regarding cost

The French have quoted both Eygpt & Qatar $142 Million per RAFALE F3R the latest version with AESA radars.

For india the additional cost of TOT and setting up production in india is over $2,5 billion

The weapons package alone is over $4 billion for like of Scalp Meteore & Mica

I guessed the day india GDP growth FELL and Rupee exchange rate went from mid 80s to nearly 100 TO EURO that this deal was in trouble . ie in April 2013.

So here we are 2 years later And my guess ( it was just gut instinct) is coming true
 
Brain or Heart? Choose one, ditch the other...let's see how well you do after that.

That too is an overly emotional statement on the subject. A better analogy is whether you get the Chest press or Bicep curl.. each has its benefits.. each has different priorities depending on what equipment you already have.
 
The French have quoted both Eygpt & Qatar $142 Million per RAFALE F3R the latest version with AESA radars.
They have no baring on the Indian Rafale deal, this deal is vastly different and the Egyptian Rafale deal includes the cost of FREMM frigates and taking FrAF Rafales from the production line. There is just no way of drawing a comparison and only the foolish would do such a thing.

I guessed the day india GDP growth FELL and Rupee exchange rate went from mid 80s to nearly 100 TO EURO that this deal was in trouble . ie in April 2013.

These deals are insulated from short term exchange rate fluctuations, the INR-EUR ER for this deal would have been pegged back in the original bid submitted in 2007/8 and Dassualt would still be guaranteeing the validity of that orginal bid at this point so moot point. Either way, is India's GDP growth rate not now back on track? 7.4% last year, mid 7% again this year, 8% within 24 months and beyond.
 
Abingdonboy.

If the rafale deal is signed I will apologise to you ..

At this stage it's dieing deal
 
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