Exports increase by 8.48pc in 11 months

[The Accountant]

please do share and then we have discussion ,by the way if you see i only share what was written in the article not my own belief or facts

Your statement

"economy was laready in gutter before Cornoa and it just proved"

current account deficit as a % of GDP

Even Zardari managed it better than PMLN. And during the last 2 years PMLN did it so worst that Pakistan was about to get bankrupt. It was all planned to completely destroy Pakistan economically.

Had PTI not got package from KSA, UAE, China and IMF we would have got into default and hyper inflation and rupee might have become worst then Venezuela.

 

[Yaseen1]

pmln badly managed economy but our conditions are not like Venezuela as we are not facing sanction from u.s and western world,such conditions are generally faced by countries facing severe sanctions ,current govt also did biggest mistakes as they failed to introduce a new startup which would be able to produce high value export products,all our exports are based on low value items which generate less dollars as compared to value added and technology based items.

Your statement

"economy was laready in gutter before Cornoa and it just proved"

current account deficit as a % of GDP

View attachment 643713

Even Zardari managed it better than PMLN. And during the last 2 years PMLN did it so worst that Pakistan was about to get bankrupt. It was all planned to completely destroy Pakistan economically.

Had PTI not got package from KSA, UAE, China and IMF we would have got into default and hyper inflation and rupee might have become worst then Venezuela.

 

[volatile]

Your statement

"economy was laready in gutter before Cornoa and it just proved"

current account deficit as a % of GDP

lol so all those crying just you brought a graph made up in excel here are solid numbers for you ,Current Account is based on net dollars (In-out) we will start with IN and end up with OUT $.

IN (Exports) + FDI + Remittances .
For Exports net increase from 2018 (22.5 Billion$

http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_19/8-Trade and payments.pdf
2020 FY is yet to be over but rough numbers for export @ 17.5 Billion - minus Corona will be closed to
20.5/21 Billion $ same as previous years US FDI will be 2 Billion US $ and remittances will be 20 Billion US$ so over all incoming dollars will remain between 40/44 Billion US$ which is similar to 2013 to 2018 only difference being Imports which PTI Govt has cut down bcas of rolling back of CPEC .Pakistan Import data clearly shows what we were importing and why . Where is the performance of IK`s PTI in this ? now imports will be closing at the same mark and may be we will have + balance but in reality there is no work done to revive exports its the oldest method of curtailing imports ,Do remmember when you share data its not half data it should be full e.g Avg Inflation number is 4% in 2013 to 2018 where as IK PTI Avg inflation is double digit (even the fuel prices are cut down to 0) .THe establishment party has achieved above by devaluing the rupee to 50 Rs .Shall i clap for this achievement . Enough numbers i guess ?
https://www.pri.gov.pk/workers-remittances-up/

Also to add Alhumdulilah our Debt to GDP is 100% ,GDP from 325 Billion to 265 Billion US$ ,Income per capita from 1660 US$ to 1245 US$ , Internal debt and loans from 28.5 Trillion Rupees to 42 Trillion Rupees ,what an achievement .!!!

 

[The Accountant]

pmln badly managed economy but our conditions are not like Venezuela as we are not facing sanction from u.s and western world,such conditions are generally faced by countries facing severe sanctions ,current govt also did biggest mistakes as they failed to introduce a new startup which would be able to produce high value export products,all our exports are based on low value items which generate less dollars as compared to value added and technology based items.

So what do you think what will default means? Default means your international guarantees will worn off and you will not be able to perform international transactions.

It is similar to a person who gets defaulted can result in sezuire of its bank accounts and assets. And hence it would have become extremely difficult to do external trades.

Banks would not have been able to open L/Cs a mandatory document for import and export.

So sanction would be even more dangerous then sanctions by USA.

 

[Yaseen1]

in our history every new govt claims that when they took govt we are at verge of default,musharaf also said same when he took over and when pti govt is replaced by new govt they will likely to make same claim,problem is that this is not solution to defer default for few years by taking more loans without improving real economic factors needed for sustainable growth which currently we are doing

So what do you think what will default means? Default means your international guarantees will worn off and you will not be able to perform international transactions.

It is similar to a person who gets defaulted can result in sezuire of its bank accounts and assets. And hence it would have become extremely difficult to do external trades.

Banks would not have been able to open L/Cs a mandatory document for import and export.

So sanction would be even more dangerous then sanctions by USA.

 

[The Accountant]

lol so all those crying just you brought a graph made up in excel here are solid numbers for you ,Current Account is based on net dollars (In-out) we will start with IN and end up with OUT $.

IN (Exports) + FDI + Remittances .
For Exports net increase from 2018 (22.5 Billion$

View attachment 643718
http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_19/8-Trade and payments.pdf

WHy showing 2019 economic survey why not 2020 ? WHy just comparision with 2017 when exports were itself got decline during PMLN period. Here is 10 years export figures:

SO 2017 exports were not actualy increased but was a slight recovery of exports lost during PMLN. Like I said even worst then ZARDARI.

don't show selective numbers the numbers that suits your baseless claims. So 2018 were even lesser than 2013 when Zardari left.

Exports were 3.6% higher than last year and if you remember it is during the China and USA trade war when overall world economy is already under pressure of slow down.

2020 FY is yet to be over but rough numbers for export @ 17.5 Billion - minus Corona will be closed to
20.5/21 Billion $ same as previous years US FDI will be 2 Billion US $ and remittances will be 20 Billion US$ so over all incoming dollars will remain between 40/44 Billion US$ which is similar to 2013 to 2018 only difference being Imports which PTI Govt has cut down bcas of rolling back of CPEC .Pakistan Import data clearly shows what we were importing and why . Where is the performance of IK`s PTI in this ?

Lolz, so if import numbers are being reduced than its God gift and nothing to do with PTI. First of all Imports are being reduced as per plan by keeping USD to PKR real exchange rate rather than artificial.

Furthermore, this decline in import means now alot of products are started making in-house rather than being imported and local manufacturing has started to functioning again.

now imports will be closing at the same mark and may be we will have + balance but in reality there is no work done to revive exports its the oldest method of curtailing imports ,

From where are you claiming imports will be at same mark? You are lying

Here are the figures of import MoM with comparison:

Do remmember when you share data its not half data it should be full e.g Avg Inflation number is 4% in 2013 to 2018 where as IK PTI Avg inflation is double digit (even the fuel prices are cut down to 0) .THe establishment party has achieved above by devaluing the rupee to 50 Rs .Shall i clap for this achievement . Enough numbers i guess ?
https://www.pri.gov.pk/workers-remittances-up/

Yes China keeps it currency devalued for decades same did the Japan. This is the way to keep your imports low and keep exports high. PMLN did not correctly valued the exchange rate and her we are.

Go and check even Miftaf Ismail said that Ishaq Dar did it wrong. He should allow the real excahnge rate rather than artificial.

Also to add Alhumdulilah our Debt to GDP is 100% ,GDP from 325 Billion to 265 Billion US$ ,Income per capita from 1660 US$ to 1245 US$ , Internal debt and loans from 28.5 Trillion Rupees to 42 Trillion Rupees ,what an achievement .!!!

WHy Debt to GDP ratio increased ? As our Imports minus export and worker remittances were 19 billion and equivallent amount of loan had to be taken to avoid the default.

Most of your figures were either cherry picked to show the half figures (like export of just 2017 18 and 19) or a big flat lie like increasing imports.

So its useless to talk to a person who is not honest.

 

[volatile]

WHy showing 2019 economic survey why not 2020 ? WHy just comparision with 2017 when exports were itself got decline during PMLN period. Here is 10 years export figures:

View attachment 643723

SO 2017 exports were not actualy increased but was a slight recovery of exports lost during PMLN. Like I said even worst then ZARDARI.

don't show selective numbers the numbers that suits your baseless claims. So 2018 were even lesser than 2013 when Zardari left.

Exports were 3.6% higher than last year and if you remember it is during the China and USA trade war when overall world economy is already under pressure of slow down.


Lolz, so if import numbers are being reduced than its God gift and nothing to do with PTI. First of all Imports are being reduced as per plan by keeping USD to PKR real exchange rate rather than artificial.

Furthermore, this decline in import means now alot of products are started making in-house rather than being imported and local manufacturing has started to functioning again.



From where are you claiming imports will be at same mark? You are lying

Here are the figures of import MoM with comparison:

View attachment 643724




Yes China keeps it currency devalued for decades same did the Japan. This is the way to keep your imports low and keep exports high. PMLN did not correctly valued the exchange rate and her we are.

Go and check even Miftaf Ismail said that Ishaq Dar did it wrong. He should allow the real excahnge rate rather than artificial.


WHy Debt to GDP ratio increased ? As our Imports minus export and worker remittances were 19 billion and equivallent amount of loan had to be taken to avoid the default.

Most of your figures were either cherry picked to show the half figures (like export of just 2017 18 and 19) or a big flat lie like increasing imports.

So its useless to talk to a person who is not honest.

Your post seems more of anger rather than any thing else ,as you failed to apprehend the idea what is currently wrong so 2 statments for you 2020 data is not being published yet and PTI lead govt even has stopped sharing 2019 data from SBP when you quote SBP its relevant rest is all Sabir Shakkar type data . For second statment we will have 2.2 Trillion rupees budget shortfall this year (with assumption of 800 billion tax increase) this year is going to be worst then ever .In PML N last year the Exports starts to jump up with June 2018 closing at 23 Billion US$ where as in PTI Alhumdulilah after evaluating 50% the net increase is 1/2 percent in dollar term ,Rest of your comments are just words no data

 

[The Accountant]

in our history every new govt claims that when they took govt we are at verge of default,musharaf also said same when he took over and when pti govt is replaced by new govt they will likely to make same claim,problem is that this is not solution to defer default for few years by taking more loans without improving real economic factors needed for sustainable growth which currently we are doing

Yes because for the past few decades every government make a mess in last 2 years of its governance. Well this is not jsut out of thin year. Country was on verge of default and here are the figures of 2018:

1. Current account deficit 19 billion (previously it hovers around 2 billion dollars) hence had to take loan of 19 billion.
2. SBP foreign currency reserves at end of 2017-18 were around 10 billion dollars.
3. Repayment of loan due in next year 11 billion dollars.

So with your income short by 19 billion dollars and with 10 billion in reserves and repayment of 11 billion due. What does it means ?

You can do the months yourself. May be you can findout someway of paying 11 billion with 10 billion in hand having income shortfall of 19 billion.


Regarding real economic growth, it takes time to build economy. There are number of steps taken:

1. exchange rate corrections.
2. State enterprises correction (like steel mill, PIA).
3. Focus on export sectors giving special favour to export based economies.
4. Start of construction of major Dams.
5. Stop on any further hydrocarbon based energy plant.
6. EV vehicle policy introduced.
7. Mobile local manufacturing policy approved.
8. E-commerce export policy drafted now under approval (I myself working with SBP and ministry of commerce on this one).
9. Duty reduction on raw amterial import whereas duty increase on finished goods.

THere are lot more steps being taken but these are policy steps and will take several months to take impact.

Your post seems more of anger rather than any thing else ,as you failed to apprehend the idea what is currently wrong so 2 statments for you 2020 data is not being published yet and PTI lead govt even has stopped sharing 2019 data from SBP when you quote SBP its relevant rest is all Sabir Shakkar type data . For second statment we will have 2.2 Trillion rupees budget shortfall this year (with assumption of 800 billion tax increase) this year is going to be worst then ever .In PML N last year the Exports starts to jump up with June 2018 closing at 23 Billion US$ where as in PTI Alhumdulilah after evaluating 50% the net increase is 1/2 percent in dollar term ,Rest of your comments are just words no data

Lies lies and lies:

1. economic survey 2019-20 already released. So a big fat lie that 2020 data not released. the data you quoted yourself was from similar economic survey but 1 year old i.e. 2019 economic survey.
2. Government of Pakistan dont share economic data or export data with SBP. Its the other way around as all the dollars in and out moves through SBP and all exporters / importers has to fill E-form in SBP data base after which customs allows shipment. SO again a big flat lie.

Prove any of my data incorrect. A single piece of data. Each and every data is either from economic survey, SBP, or trading economics data abse. All these are verified and gloablly acknowledged data.

So your posts are nothing but big flat lie. 2018 export increases after significant decline in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Kindly share the export figures from 2013 onwards from some reliable database and if i stand wrong then I will oppologize, but will you accept you were wrong?

 

[Yaseen1]

this govt is good only at announcing policies but no progress made on ground,india has started manufacturing electric vehicles but are not making any progress except announcing of policies,similar is case with mobile phones,
most deficit decrease is due to decline in imports and not due to massive rise in exports,with current progress and setup there is no much hope of any better results and after 5yrs we will only remain limited to announcement of policies without any progress

Yes because for the past few decades every government make a mess in last 2 years of its governance. Well this is not jsut out of thin year. Country was on verge of default and here are the figures of 2018:

1. Current account deficit 19 billion (previously it hovers around 2 billion dollars) hence had to take loan of 19 billion.
2. SBP foreign currency reserves at end of 2017-18 were around 10 billion dollars.
3. Repayment of loan due in next year 11 billion dollars.

So with your income short by 19 billion dollars and with 10 billion in reserves and repayment of 11 billion due. What does it means ?

You can do the months yourself. May be you can findout someway of paying 11 billion with 10 billion in hand having income shortfall of 19 billion.


Regarding real economic growth, it takes time to build economy. There are number of steps taken:

1. exchange rate corrections.
2. State enterprises correction (like steel mill, PIA).
3. Focus on export sectors giving special favour to export based economies.
4. Start of construction of major Dams.
5. Stop on any further hydrocarbon based energy plant.
6. EV vehicle policy introduced.
7. Mobile local manufacturing policy approved.
8. E-commerce export policy drafted now under approval (I myself working with SBP and ministry of commerce on this one).
9. Duty reduction on raw amterial import whereas duty increase on finished goods.

THere are lot more steps being taken but these are policy steps and will take several months to take impact.



Lies lies and lies:

1. economic survey 2019-20 already released. So a big fat lie that 2020 data not released. the data you quoted yourself was from similar economic survey but 1 year old i.e. 2019 economic survey.
2. Government of Pakistan dont share economic data or export data with SBP. Its the other way around as all the dollars in and out moves through SBP and all exporters / importers has to fill E-form in SBP data base after which customs allows shipment. SO again a big flat lie.

Prove any of my data incorrect. A single piece of data. Each and every data is either from economic survey, SBP, or trading economics data abse. All these are verified and gloablly acknowledged data.

So your posts are nothing but big flat lie. 2018 export increases after significant decline in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Kindly share the export figures from 2013 onwards from some reliable database and if i stand wrong then I will oppologize, but will you accept you were wrong?

 

[volatile]

1. economic survey 2019-20 already released. So a big fat lie that 2020 data not released. the data you quoted yourself was from similar economic survey but 1 year old i.e. 2019 economic survey.
2. Government of Pakistan dont share economic data or export data with SBP. Its the other way around as all the dollars in and out moves through SBP and all exporters / importers has to fill E-form in SBP data base after which customs allows shipment. SO again a big flat lie.

Prove any of my data incorrect. A single piece of data. Each and every data is either from economic survey, SBP, or trading economics data abse. All these are verified and gloablly acknowledged data.

So your posts are nothing but big flat lie. 2018 export increases after significant decline in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Kindly share the export figures from 2013 onwards from some reliable database and if i stand wrong then I will oppologize, but will you accept you were wrong?

lol must be 8 years old SBP publish data on debt,liabilities ,all other where is the data now ? coming to the main point you still havent answered single fact its just lie lie ,

 

[The Accountant]

lol must be 8 years old SBP publish data on debt,liabilities ,all other where is the data now ? coming to the main point you still havent answered single fact its just lie lie ,

Your post shows you know nothing on economy other than google search.

Also failed to quote a single incorrect number in my data and just lying around. SO dont expect any more replies from me.

this govt is good only at announcing policies but no progress made on ground,india has started manufacturing electric vehicles but are not making any progress except announcing of policies,similar is case with mobile phones,
most deficit decrease is due to decline in imports and not due to massive rise in exports,with current progress and setup there is no much hope of any better results and after 5yrs we will only remain limited to announcement of policies without any progress

First of all manufacturing is not job of government. Government job is policy making. Its job of business man and us Pakistani to do the business.

India was manufacturing ambassador vehicle and tata vehicle for decades. We dont manufacture even a motor cycle of our own. Our motorcycles are even imported from china to assemble in Pakistan.

So a mess of decades you need to get clear in 2 years?

Where were you when PMLN and PPP governing from 1983 were literally f*** our economy.

 

[volatile]

Your post shows you know nothing on economy other than google search.

Also failed to quote a single incorrect number in my data and just lying around. SO dont expect any more replies from me.

Good it was not a pleasure talking to some one who is beyond logic

 

[Dr-who]

Anyone who is criticizing the present govt post covid need to remember this that it's not only Pakistan facing this issue, it's a worldwide economic phenomenon.
Pakistan has one of the least negative growth.
Big question is:
Why didn't Pti government impose agricultural tax on all provinces, at least agricultural tax could be used to offset the loss of GST tax by lowering it to provide breathing space to business and could also marginally increase PSDP?

 

[Yaseen1]

govt economic policies like high rate of interests ,expensive utilities etc are hindering new startups,if this govt is also following path of pmln and ppp then what is benefit of wasting resources on such democratic govt,better run country using professional technocrats instead of elected people,common people have very less saving here to invest in new startups,in every country for new technology company govt initially provide support to them like space x in u.s is supported by nasa which is govt organisation to make progress in advanced space projects but here no such proceeding by govt is made in form of assistance in building infrastructure and technical support for new and high technology startups

Your post shows you know nothing on economy other than google search.

Also failed to quote a single incorrect number in my data and just lying around. SO dont expect any more replies from me.


First of all manufacturing is not job of government. Government job is policy making. Its job of business man and us Pakistani to do the business.

India was manufacturing ambassador vehicle and tata vehicle for decades. We dont manufacture even a motor cycle of our own. Our motorcycles are even imported from china to assemble in Pakistan.

So a mess of decades you need to get clear in 2 years?

Where were you when PMLN and PPP governing from 1983 were literally f*** our economy.

main reason of least negative growth is our growth was already very low closer to zero before covid19 so it cannot go much negative unlike other nations who are progressing with high growth so decline is more when they locked down economy

Anyone who is criticizing the present govt post covid need to remember this that it's not only Pakistan facing this issue, it's a worldwide economic phenomenon.
Pakistan has one of the least negative growth.
Big question is:
Why didn't Pti government impose agricultural tax on all provinces, at least agricultural tax could be used to offset the loss of GST tax by lowering it to provide breathing space to business and could also marginally increase PSDP?

 

[AZ1]

joblessness is higher these days,manpower not seems to be increased otherwise new jobs would be created,these exports also include wheat and sugar scandal related exports which resulted in shortage inside Pakistan otherwise no new type of product is produced here,when you devalue currency and export more raw material as it becomes cheap for foreign nations by reducing supply domestically resulting in inflation it is not due to increase in capacity, most exports are based on agricultural produce and raw material and textile sector is facing decline after covid19 as indicated by firing of employees by mill owners and paying them less amount

Add $100 million mask and PPE order recently fir future reference.