I have posted similar analyses before as well and as geopolitical environment do not change overnight, my view remain the same.
Geo-political environment is transitioning from American efforts to retain its uni-polarity to a stage where the emerging competitors are moving to a position of asserting their influence. Major US concerns focused on Asia include:
- An emerging China.
- Seeking and sustaining support for a countervailing India against China.
- A resurgent Russia with an eye on Central Asia and a resurgent desire to reach warm waters through Pakistan.
- A concerned Muslim world attempting to redefine its place in the world polity.
- While US led efforts aimed at containment of Russia are stabilizing in Europe, endeavours to curtail Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasian hinterland are also underway.
You forgot to add one more - a nuclear Pakistan.
What does US want from India:
- India to act as a countervailing force against China.
- As a milkman to sustain US economy.
- Compete with Chinese economic progress.
- Stabilize regional disputes with limited force projection capability.
US may want whatever - but we do what we want.
Lets see what are Indias geopolitical and geostrategic strengths:
India cannot laterally expand its influence beyond its western borders due the existence of geo-political impediments in addition to the geographical restrictions placed by the presence of Pakistan, unless Pakistan allows it to do so.
Expand influence laterally to the west? - what's to the west of Pakistan - Afghanistan / FATA / KPK / Waziristan.
Expansion of its influence towards the east is impeded due to the large geographical lay of China.
We are not worried about expanding towards Mongolia or Russia, Far East is quite accessible.
Myanmar can provide India with limited ability to expand towards South East Asia. Chinese influence in Myanmar has increased manifold and may limit future Indian endeavours.
May impede, but will not for sure - the Burmese surprisingly are quite independent - they were dependent on China because of the sanctions, they are quite positive towards India too.
Therefore the only direction it may be able to expand its influence is towards the vast expanse of sea in the south. The US also supports Indias increasing influence in IOR, but only as a second fiddle.
Guess you forgot to read up lately - the US is reorienting itself from the Gulf and towards the Pacific and SCS not the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean is all ours.
India would become a strong economic power and would be able to generate fair bit of economic influence in all those countries which are its trading partners and may also be able to exercise fair bit of negativity against Pakistan and China in this domain.
Right on
However, its overall power projection and generation of influence in the key regions would still remain limited unless it drastically improves relations with both Pakistan and China.
Pakistan is out of the equation - small fry and inconsequential and just a door mat to Afghanistan, China wants better relations with India so lets see where it leads to.
This fact also highlights the importance of strategic nature of Pak-China relationship.
They want you to curb terrorism from Pakistani soil projecting into CHina, secondly would be taking over Pak Kashmir and Gwadhar port to get an alternative route to avoid the IOR.
Pakistans sympathetic leanings towards China is one of the major causes of Pak-US trust deficit.
I don't know what that means, how are you sympathetic towards China? more like you do not have many other options.
However, the US in its endeavours to contain China is also eyeing Pakistans southern sea ports to acquire its own strategic corridor with links to Central Asian resources and to safeguard its interests with regard to Russia's containment.
And, they are going to get it - nothing Pakistan can do about it.
Therefore, it is likely that the US will continue to act as Pakistans neighbour for quite some time through its presence in Afghanistan and the Gulf.
in view of all this, India may not find due importance in places of import and this is so because Indias importance has diminished considerably due to her weakness at geopolitical and geostrategic levels.
Your policies are based on towing the US line, we work for our own interests. We have our own Geo Political goals and WTH's a Geo strategic Level.
Besides, Afghanistan is just a small part of our Geo politics, we have much more concerns and interests all around the globe. Presently it's Africa, Far East and ME...later South America.
