Election 2018

[VCheng]

Not to troll or anything and nor do I cared whether Imran Khan wins or Nawaz Sharif but I feel that Election commission in Pakistan can take some lessons from Election Commission of India. It has vast experience in carrying out elections right from Panchayat level to Loksabha Elections. Infact the State Assembly Elections in Feb - March can be a great template for them to study. the electrorate in these elections will be equal to or even more than the entire electorate of Pakistan.

So you can send your people here to see how we conduct the elections and use those practices in your country

The problem with the ECP is not that it does not know what to do. It does. It is just that Pakistan, as a whole, just does not want to to do, what it knows how to do, to have free and fair elections. To do so regularly would create the sort of strong democratic institutions that would challenge those who hold power presently, and they simply will not permit that to happen.

 

[notorious_eagle]

I know misconduct in the election did take place but not to the scale that it could have changed results. I do agree with you that PML-N is likely to lose share of her seats from the Punjab assembly and National Assembly and that vacuum is likely to be filled by PTI but it is hard to believe under present circumstances that the vacuum will be large enough to topple the ruling government. So the bottom line is, we are likely to see the same government coming back to the power unless Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from the Supreme Court

True, PML-N was going to win the election in 2013 but not with this margin. The Opposition Leader's slot would have likely gone to a PTI member, and he would have likely been a pain in the a** for the Government unlike our Meter Reader right now.

I do agree that PML-N is going to form the next Government looking at the current trends, but not with a majority but likely a coalition with PPP. PML-N is counting on managing the elections from constituency politics because they don't have much performance to show for, but do remember now PTI has the candidates who know how to manage the elections. A sad step that was taken by PTI, but in my opinion electables are needed if you want to win the elections. Also, don't forget incumbency factor as there is a lot of frustration among people in terms of PML-N's governance. In my opinion, PTI would likely have more seats than PML-N but will be well short of a simple majority. This is where PML-N's alliance with PPP will kick in.

 

[Hyde]

True, PML-N was going to win the election in 2013 but not with this margin. The Opposition Leader's slot would have likely gone to a PTI member, and he would have likely been a pain in the a** for the Government unlike our Meter Reader right now.

I do agree that PML-N is going to form the next Government looking at the current trends, but not with a majority but likely a coalition with PPP. PML-N is counting on managing the elections from constituency politics because they don't have much performance to show for, but do remember now PTI has the candidates who know how to manage the elections. A sad step that was taken by PTI, but in my opinion electables are needed if you want to win the elections. Also, don't forget incumbency factor as there is a lot of frustration among people in terms of PML-N's governance. In my opinion, PTI would likely have more seats than PML-N but will be well short of a simple majority. This is where PML-N's alliance with PPP will kick in.

I do agree with your thoughts but in my humble opinion coalition of PTI + PPP is more likely compared to PML-N + PPP which has traditionally not embedded since the inception of both parties.

I do reserve the right to express my views so you are free to disagree. I do agree with you however that PML-N is likely to lose ground on some of they key seats in Punjab and PTI is likely to gain seats particularly in swing constituencies where the margin of victory for PML-N was less than 25,000 votes.

There is so much to happen before the general elections and if Nawaz Sharif is disqualified by the Supreme Court, it means PML-N will lose ground in most constituencies and the revival of PPP, PML-Q and PTI in Central and North Punjab will ensure PML-N falling back to become the third or 4th largest party in Pakistan after PTI and PPP.

 

[VCheng]

I do agree with your thoughts but in my humble opinion coalition of PTI + PPP is more likely compared to PML-N + PPP which has traditionally not embedded since the inception of both parties.

Can any one of these parties work with any others as you mention, realistically speaking, as part of a coalition?

 

[Hyde]

Can any one of these parties work with any others as you mention, realistically speaking, as part of a coalition?

I think PPP and PTI can work together as PTI always had softer approach on PPP. They even stopped blaming them and were accusing PML-N for all the mess before the general elections in 2013. The reason was quite evident that they thought PML-N will emerge victorious and PTI might have to form coalition government with PPP. I think coalition government of PTI+PPP under the leadership of PTI can work but not the other way around.

The ideal coalition for PTI is likely to be PTI+PML-Q+JI but they wouldn't bother making contact with PPP if such a scenario of forming coalition government appears

 

[Soumitra]

It is not about learning experience I think. It is just that the ruling parties in Pakistan doesn't want to improve besides mere statements.

That is not only Pakistan's problem. Politicians all over the world are famous of just making statements

If we really want to conduct free and fair elections, Pakistan already have the world's largest database of voters with fingerprints and according to EC about 200,000 machines were required to install across the country as a one-off payment of few billion rupees and each and every candidate will not be able to vote twice as your fingerprint will only allow you to vote for once.

Sorry the world's largest fingerprint database is India's Aadhar database with over 1 Billion people enrolled in it

Anyways even we dont use Aadhar for voting. Like you said it is costly affair to have finger print reading machine to authenticate voters. These machines if used will be required once in 5 years. That will make the cost very prohibitive

Instead of that why dont you do as India does. Use indelible ink to mark the finger of the voter. This ink does not come off for around 3-4 weeks. It can easily be used to differentiate the voters

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_ink

The indelible ink used in Indian elections is made by govt company Mysore paints and varnish. Apart from India it is also exported to other countries including Thailand, Singapore, Nigeria, Malaysia, South Africa, Afghanistan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mysore_Paints_and_Varnish_Limited

Use of indelible ink is just one example of how you can learn from ECI. Other good practices include use of Electronic Voting Machine, Model Code of Conduct etc.

it is the norm in our country that the ruling party is always blamed for rigging and the losing party will keep chanting for unfair results until the new elections are due. If they really wanted to improve, they had 5 years from 2013 to 2018 to introduce such technology. Nadra already have that record and technology to introduce such a system but it will not be good for losing parties as they will not be able to play blame game of being rigged.

This is something which does not happen in India. We are famous for overthrowing govt's after 5 or 10 years. No one seriously makes the charge of election rigging.

 

[notorious_eagle]

I do agree with your thoughts but in my humble opinion coalition of PTI + PPP is more likely compared to PML-N + PPP which has traditionally not embedded since the inception of both parties.

If that happens, and PTI joins an alliance with PPP, that is the day where PTI's politics ends. The only reason why PTI has gained traction is only because of dissatisfaction with PML-N and PPP. You're talking about the PPP of Benazir Bhutto who was at logger heads with PML-N, this is the PPP of Zardari. PML-N and PPP have largely been in an alliance since 2008, and even now PPP has provided PML-N with immense support.

As far as Nawaz Sharif's disqualification is concerned, the chances of that happening are close to zero. The new CJ is a personal Chaprasi of Nawaz Sharif. He largely owes his career, and his immense fortune to Nawaz Sharif.

 

[Hyde]

That is not only Pakistan's problem. Politicians all over the world are famous of just making statements



Sorry the world's largest fingerprint database is India's Aadhar database with over 1 Billion people enrolled in it

Anyways even we dont use Aadhar for voting. Like you said it is costly affair to have finger print reading machine to authenticate voters. These machines if used will be required once in 5 years. That will make the cost very prohibitive

Instead of that why dont you do as India does. Use indelible ink to mark the finger of the voter. This ink does not come off for around 3-4 weeks. It can easily be used to differentiate the voters

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_ink

The indelible ink used in Indian elections is made by govt company Mysore paints and varnish. Apart from India it is also exported to other countries including Thailand, Singapore, Nigeria, Malaysia, South Africa, Afghanistan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mysore_Paints_and_Varnish_Limited

Use of indelible ink is just one example of how you can learn from ECI. Other good practices include use of Electronic Voting Machine, Model Code of Conduct etc.



This is something which does not happen in India. We are famous for overthrowing govt's after 5 or 10 years. No one seriously makes the charge of election rigging.

didn't know about Adhaar database. I do notice that is a new project launched in 2009 but my information was bit outdated as NADRA existed many years before that project and used to claim having the largest database in the world of over 80 million adults in the country (literally every adult in Pakistan).

Such ink is also available in Pakistan and it doesn't come off easily. It happens everywhere in the world but I guess we were talking about digitising election process with the help of technology in order to reduce rigging.

If that happens, and PTI joins an alliance with PPP, that is the day where PTI's politics ends. The only reason why PTI has gained traction is only because of dissatisfaction with PML-N and PPP. You're talking about the PPP of Benazir Bhutto who was at logger heads with PML-N, this is the PPP of Zardari. PML-N and PPP have largely been in an alliance since 2008, and even now PPP has provided PML-N with immense support.

As far as Nawaz Sharif's disqualification is concerned, the chances of that happening are close to zero. The new CJ is a personal Chaprasi of Nawaz Sharif. He largely owes his career, and his immense fortune to Nawaz Sharif.

All I can say is,

There are no friend and foes in politics. The day such a scenario exists when PTI wins 85 seats and PML-N wins 80 seats... PTI will contact PPP to form coalition government if PPP had 50 required seats to form the government. The same will happen with PML-N and PPP but as the history is evident their coalition don't last for more than 1 year

 

[Jungibaaz]

If that happens, and PTI joins an alliance with PPP, that is the day where PTI's politics ends. The only reason why PTI has gained traction is only because of dissatisfaction with PML-N and PPP. You're talking about the PPP of Benazir Bhutto who was at logger heads with PML-N, this is the PPP of Zardari. PML-N and PPP have largely been in an alliance since 2008, and even now PPP has provided PML-N with immense support.

As far as Nawaz Sharif's disqualification is concerned, the chances of that happening are close to zero. The new CJ is a personal Chaprasi of Nawaz Sharif. He largely owes his career, and his immense fortune to Nawaz Sharif.

You're right, an alliance with PPP would kill PTI. Since that is not as likely, and other factors, I think PMLN again will form the next government. Fact of the matter is, all PTI needs to do in order to deny PMLN enough seats to form a comfortable majority or coalition is attack them hard in seats in Punjab. If PMLN again sits comfortably in Punjab, you'll again have their government forming with some ~33% of the national vote. PTI should also rage twice as hard form electoral reform as it does against the now clichéd message of anti-corruption.

 

[Hyde]

You're right, an alliance with PPP would kill PTI. Since that is not as likely, and other factors, I think PMLN again will form the next government. Fact of the matter is, all PTI needs to do in order to deny PMLN enough seats to form a comfortable majority or coalition is attack them hard in seats in Punjab. If PMLN again sits comfortably in Punjab, you'll again have their government forming with some ~33% of the national vote. PTI should also rage twice as hard form electoral reform as it does against the now clichéd message of anti-corruption.

How many of you wants to bet with me that PTI + PML-N will form the next coalition government?

One of the least corrupt party in Pakistan "Jamat-e-Islami" spends 20 hours a day criticising other parties in Pakistan, demonising them, infusing the seeds of hatred amongst the masses but when the same anchor will ask them if they wish to form coalition with these monsters, they would never deny the possibility and will say that it only depends on the election results and we will not deny such possibility. This is the state of religious parties and we are talking about hardcore seasoned politicians from the big 3 parties of Pakistan who have switched loyalties between each other for countless number of times. What will happen is, if such a scenario emerges, Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif will go to hibernation mode in the best interest of the people and Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Ishaq Dar will be coming on the TV talking about the coalition government and insist on let bygones be bygones. The party with most number of seats will be able to choose the Prime Minister

There are no permanent friends and foes in politics

 

[Spring Onion]

Zardari-Nawaz will try to oust PTI if not completely then at least to the shameful level. Whoever forms the government at center ( whether PPP or PML-N), this time there would be bigger Political gundddd (dirt) than the current one.

 

[truthseeker2010]

Zardari-Nawaz will try to oust PTI if not completely then at least to the shameful level. Whoever forms the government at center ( whether PPP or PML-N), this time there would be bigger Political gundddd (dirt) than the current one.

IMO the verdict of panama case will decide the fate of future elections, the question mark is sindh and karachi.........

 

[Spring Onion]

IMO the verdict of panama case will decide the fate of future elections, the question mark is sindh and karachi.........

panama case is going nowhere so we must not bank on its outcome

 

[truthseeker2010]

panama case is going nowhere so we must not bank on its outcome

if that happens, it will seriously undermine the judicial independence......... it will be back to square one for lawyer movement......

 

[Spring Onion]

if that happens, it will seriously undermine the judicial independence......... it will be back to square one for lawyer movement......

prople don't look towards judiciary already.