The capture of Sirte seems more complicated than expected. The LNA is currently slowing GNA's advance. The LNA might keep fighting to force GNA to accept a ceasefire.
Tripoli airport took a week at least, even it was smaller compared to
Sirte, following
tripoli airport,
Bani walid-
Tarhuna was taken within a few days.
LNA will hold on
Sirte-Jufra line as long as it is possible to keep upper hand in politics in favour of division. Next stop would be
ajdabiya to hold, and i dont think GNA would proceed beyond
ajdabiya as well but LNA will loose majority of oilfields and access to majority of Libya (Southwestern parts) if they have lost Sirte and Jufra. And once they have lost those places, they will not be able to bargain for division.
Sirte is a junction, once LNA has lost these places they would have to retreat all the way back to benghazi and will attend to meetings as defeated side, not on equal terms.
Haftar is a person who can not tolerate loosing, he even has renamed entire of the loss as "strategic withdrawal".
I am rather curious when France and Egypt will realize they should get rid of this man to get better results, he soon will be found responsible for massacres in Tarhuna/Benghazi, there are mass graves-unidentified dead bodies around, his image is being ruined day by day, he has let weapons to be captured, retreated unorganized and created a mess to be cleaned by his supporters.
The worst of all, he doesn't trust Libyan people, tribes ,his own generals any more. He trusts paid militias and other countries' armies more than he trusts on his own, especially after the mess in Tripoli; He is afraid of being overthrown.
As of now GNA has the upper hand, LNA is at no place to force for ceasefire. His super strategical withdrawal was a mess, the way he and his allies rushed for a de facto ceasefire was proof of how big is the mess and how badly Haftar is loosing.
By Editorial Team on June 11, 2020
