The sheets show that FDI is minimal. Trade balance has a massive ~$17 billion deficit which would have been even more if oil prices hadn't fallen. And the only thing balancing out the payments is the remittances which are roughly ~$17 billion. Net FDI stands at around $0.7 Billion. Exports show a negative growth rate of almost around 4%, while imports are increasing very quickly (due to gov. lowering exchange rate down to ~rs.100:1$). The low exchange rate is hurting exports.
The other sheets show how the debt is structured. And you can see in the totals, it is piling up.
All of this was in response to your claims that billions and billions of dollars of investment was coming in from abroad, which is clearly not true. And that debt was going down (which it isn't, it's piling up).
In the future, I don't see anything solid. The CPEC nonsense is very similar to USSR-North Korea relations. When USSR ran out of money, North Korea also collapsed. Second, I just don't see the trade volume required for a $45 billion road infrastructure investment to be feasible. The entire CPEC thing may or may not result in what they expect it to result in.
The most important investment is local investment. Foreign investment doesn't really mean anything. Foreigners have lots of money and no where to invest. It's easy to get foreign investment without making much effort. What's difficult is to boost local investor confidence. These are the people who know the real conditions. If they're happy, the economy is doing good. They are not happy right now due to high tax rates including customs duties and the gov.'s plans to impose even more taxes, low exchange rates (hurting exports badly), power crisis and law and order situation (corruption in every gov. institution, can't run a business without bribing dozens of officials every year).
The government's focus is entirely on "cosmetic" projects, that are designed to make their party look good more than anything. Metro for example is heavily subsidized and had it not been subsidized, it would have been un-affordable. It is another enterprise like PIA, steel mills, railways etc that is costing the public billions every year.
It's not just about throwing money into infrastructure blindly. You have to make sure the infrastructure is needed and is financially feasible.
These here are the facts. I'm not blindly biased towards PTI and I disagree with most of their principles regarding fiscal policy. But that is the one party that is the most promising so far. They'll (hopefully?) make taxes worth paying.
You STILL didn't answer my questions and wrote me all these explanations based on YOUR understanding of how this works!!!! Which isn't right.
Let's focus on key questions. Like I said, answer these and we'll hash this out:
1) Per your opinion, SO MUCH debt accumulation and all, Pakistan should be on her way to bankruptcy right? Would you agree?
2) Do you see Pakistani economy on way to a total collapse as the mounting debt in your opinion is insanely high? And they keep borrowing more...
3) Why did the economy that was near collapse, didn't collapse? And actually improved within the 3 years post Zardari? And so many investments from the Chinese, ME, Turkey and the US (and others) came about. Majority of which didn't exist before the current government took over??
4) Why you and some others on here keep talking about borrowed money, NO progress, fake GDP, inflated budgets and all, when the rest of the WORLD is putting in Pakistan in the fastest growing countries list, appreciate the economic progress made in 2012, and are looking forward to investing into Pakistan?
Why you and the remainder of the globe look at things so differently? Remember, this is the first time Pakistan has been added to the fastest growing countries' list since her Birth!!! Why is that?? and Why NOW if you tell us there is no progress?
From Japan to the US to China (full global circle, including previous foes like Russia) are all investing OR preparing to invest into Pakistan in the near future???? Are these guys crazy? blind to see the reality? want to just throw their money in a trash bin by putting into a country that's failing with borrowed money and all and per you, and some others, a "Greece like economy"????
Please answer the above questions and I think that might end this silly debate once and for all. Please be factual and not give us your opinion. Its related to the economy so everything has real numbers to it. Not guess work, ideas or accusations!!
Mr Ishaq Dar is a master of falsifying economic data. what he hasn't told us that of the 20bill $ reserves, 10bill $ belong to the IMF to stabilize our economy. our net reserves are10 bill $ which is pathetic. until and unless we don't collect taxes from every strata of our documented and undocumented economy our reserves will remain non existent.
Can you provide me a basic ledger that shows in line items that the break down of the $ 20 billion is that $ 10 billion was loaned by the IM? So to show "inflated GDP or investment numbers" to the people of Pakistan.
Do you know how hard it is to get a loan from the IMF if you are Pakistan? Do you know IMF no longer loans to the government of Pakistan like the US started to do in Musharraff's time? And they actually now cut each loan into many installments, and FUND a project and check the progress, before issuing another installment? No loan is now given to Pakistan in full. I don't know if you knew that.
Also, did you know that its illegal to use a business loan and put it into your personal checking account? Its called money laundering and its against the IMF and every-other bank's rules too. Pakistan will be black listed for loans if she any other country ever did that!!!
Did you also know that when a bank loans money to a business, or a country for projects, the LOAN AMOUNT goes directly under the Debts and Liabilities section on the income statement (reason why Pakistan has high liabilities)?
And that a business or as a country won't pass the audit, the federal bank can't issue an income statement, and the world will consider you a fraudulent country if you started to show your Debt and liabilities (Loans, etc) into FDI (which is really capital investment)? meaning you'll be black listed for loans. You know how much effort will be put into accomplishing this by India, UAE, Afghanistan and others if this was to happen? Pakistan will literally go under financial sanctions, which will ruin its economy back to the time of separation, in just a few years!!
Please post a document breaking down the $ 20 billion into line items and showing $ 10 billion from loans from the IMF, issued by the government of Pakistan, the Fed bank, the IMF or some other global respectful business, not a yellow journalist.
This is so illegal to do, its not even funny. The world won't give Pakistan a COOKIE let alone dollars if they did that. Just like you won't invest into a business who's you know is committing open fraud!!!
My humble request is, based on your personal affiliations and political agendas, let's not make your country look bad, as if the entire nation is fraudulent. You guys represent your country on here to the entire globe, posts like your suggest that the government of Pakistan is committing fraud. Which is nowhere near the case as everything gets audited by the Federal bank, then the IMF and than many other organizations across many Western countries!!!
:
