Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[Blue Marlin]

Sri Lanka knows better. We have no problems with surface or even diesel subs of China docking in Lanka. The only problem is nuclear subs, for some reason we have problems. I am pretty sure its signature was noted down the last time it came to Sri Lanka. ISI doesnt have the clout in the above mentioned countries. Even today if anyone ask the 100% muslim nation of Maldives to chose btw Pakistan and India, India is their choice.

Secondly IOR is our sphere of influence. Especially northern IOR. Indian trade depends upon the seas, and we cannot let the enemy any foothold in IOR in terms of war. We want our trade unaffected.

Again, PN being weak, I doubt they can save Karachi and Gwadar at the same time, if IN decides to attack them at the same time, and also block Malacca straits at the same time. However that's outta question since there is never going to be war btw India and China.

most subs have spoofing devices that mask the subs true signature. can you tell me how you know the isi does not operate in the listed countries. also no one care if its a muslim country or not. look at jordan and israel.

i dont even think pakistan has a navy. the only good thing i like is the pns khalid which is the first aip sub in the region

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

most subs have spoofing devices that mask the subs true signature. can you tell me how you know the isi does not operate in the listed countries. also no one care if its a muslim country or not. look at jordan and israel.

i dont even think pakistan has a navy. the only good thing i like is the pns khalid which is the first aip sub in the region

There is a difference between operating secretly and openly operating. Moreover spoofing devices. Lol. What? Can it stop the complete sound of a submarine? Just a pass over Sri Lankan air using P8I when the sub was entering or coming out of harbour is enough to note the acoustic signature.

Spoofing devices

 

[Blue Marlin]

There is a difference between operating secretly and openly operating. Moreover spoofing devices. Lol. What? Can it stop the complete sound of a submarine? Just a pass over Sri Lankan air using P8I when the sub was entering or coming out of harbour is enough to note the acoustic signature.

Spoofing devices

spoofing devices mask the true sound of the submarine.so the true noise signature is hidden. it wont increase the noise of the sub but simply change it.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

With Iran being weak under sanctions pakistan was having a good time . Once their economy becomes strong it will try to influence neighboring countries.

Lets see!

Do you know whose proxy Jundallah is and where they operate from ?

They have some activity around Pakistani Balochistan and Irani Balochistan. Pakistan is cracking down on them as this group killed so many Pakistanis

You have given lot of reasons why Iran should hate pakistan. Being slaves of arab is not a great thing to boast about and persians dont like them either. Pakistan-Saudi nexus is good enuf for Iran to be wary about pakistan. Good luck pakistan , interesting times ahead.

Neither Iran hate Pakistan nor Pakistan hates Iran. Every country looks for its own interest. Pakistan didn't send its troops to Yemen, acknowledging Iran concerns, despite having such close ties with Saudia. So here goes your Pak-Saudi nexus against Iran theory in vain. This is not a zero sum game. Iran is interested in CPEC. Ferry service from
Karachi to Chahbahar (Iran) is soon going to start. IP gas pipeline is resuming soon. So Pakistan is doing well regarding Iran, also not letting disturb its alliance with Arabs. Got it?

 

[vayuputhra]

in the end who do you think iran will count onpakistan or india? the 2 sharifs are trying to calm down the situation, could modi/india could have done that. the usa has not burnt its fingers but massaged them with oil. dont you think india going to the scs would mean china would come o the indian ocean? infact they came to srilanka pakistan bangladesh and burma

OK think that a shia Iran which has always has border skirmishes with a sunni Pakistan which is a henchmen of saudi Arabia, mean while you say that Iran and Saudi Arabia have very cordial relationship, I think you are day dreaming, you don't know the deapth of indo Iranian relationship, we till recently traded oil in rupees with Iran can you do it or can Pakistan so it, and why do you think India is developing chabhar port, which is very near to gwadar, and building long roads in iran , what is the involvement of Pakistan in Iran.
And as for sheriffs we don't want to be one, it their conflict they have to face and the two sheriffs are somewhat miffed, and becoming restless, and the Americans want India and China to get involved in middle east, but its not going to happen, and why should we?
So why the oil massager is acting like he has drunk some oil and wants to relieve himself
Indian navy is going there after the Chinese got a free pass in to indian ocean , now when they acted smart we have to do some thing and now we visit SCS regularly now they are feelin uneasy, and I think you are neive about the capability of indian navy, we can choke the entire malakka straights stopping movement from west to east.
And we are a nuclear power. The srilankans have promised that they will inform India in advance about the arraival or docking of Chinese ships in their harbour, as our spies can also can take a look at these Chinese ships, except for Pakistan India has the power to change the regeim of our neighbours but we are not bad boys from the west,
As for naval vessels visiting ports its a normal thing, we visit vietnam , Japan , Indonesia, phillipines, Australia, Singapore, and we are always present in srilanka, Bangladesh, & Burma.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

We need a very very good relation with Myanmar and Laos to counter China.

What are the chances that 2 poor Southeast Asian nations that depend heavily on Chinese investment and trade... will turn to India? India can barely help itself.

 

[Brahmaputra Mail]

What are the chances that 2 poor Southeast Asian nations that depend heavily on Chinese investment and trade... will turn to India? India can barely help itself.

Probability= 1/2

getting a little ahead of ourselves arent we

India is always ahead.

 

[Khan_patriot]

Probability= 1/2


India is always ahead.

yeah says the prepubescent wannabe troll who just joined pdf, I would try and debate your opinion but sadly I am way too busy to do so so I am just going to pass.....

 

[Brahmaputra Mail]

yeah says the prepubescent wannabe troll who just joined pdf, I would try and debate your opinion but sadly I am way too busy to do so so I am just going to pass.....

Busy enough to quote me? Go ahead please.

 

[Blue Marlin]

OK think that a shia Iran which has always has border skirmishes with a sunni Pakistan which is a henchmen of saudi Arabia, mean while you say that Iran and Saudi Arabia have very cordial relationship, I think you are day dreaming, you don't know the deapth of indo Iranian relationship, we till recently traded oil in rupees with Iran can you do it or can Pakistan so it, and why do you think India is developing chabhar port, which is very near to gwadar, and building long roads in iran , what is the involvement of Pakistan in Iran.

do you think iran is stupid enough to ignore pakistan? they are well aware of their capabilities. yes the only reason why there are not in yemen is because that they want to be out of it. but in terms of influence? indian wants to be a superpower but it cant now will t ever. heck your doing what pakistan did. the usa will be india's sugar daddy. the iranians see pakistan as a more important regional partner than india. and the region is mostly muslim countries and india a country that put cows on a higher class level than its minorities you have no chance. chabhar is just a way for india to get to afghanistan and central asia. and ghani has to under stand that india wont solve all of their problems. something the previous afghan president failed to see behind indian indian influence.

And as for sheriffs we don't want to be one, it their conflict they have to face and the two sheriffs are somewhat miffed, and becoming restless, and the Americans want India and China to get involved in middle east, but its not going to happen, and why should we?

dont know what your even saying here

So why the oil massager is acting like he has drunk some oil and wants to relieve himself
Indian navy is going there after the Chinese got a free pass in to indian ocean , now when they acted smart we have to do some thing and now we visit SCS regularly now they are feelin uneasy, and I think you are neive about the capability of indian navy, we can choke the entire malakka straights stopping movement from west to east.

yes i admit india's navy is big as i have said before but china's navy is bigger and growinf much faster than india's.
go ahead close the malakka straight let see what happens. remember its not only china's trade your stopping its even your own. and east asia's
hence why pakistan is a bypass for the malakka straight.

And we are a nuclear power. The srilankans have promised that they will inform India in advance about the arraival or docking of Chinese ships in their harbour, as our spies can also can take a look at these Chinese ships, except for Pakistan India has the power to change the regeim of our neighbours but we are not bad boys from the west,
As for naval vessels visiting ports its a normal thing, we visit vietnam , Japan , Indonesia, phillipines, Australia, Singapore, and we are always present in srilanka, Bangladesh, & Burma.

oh no the notorious raw will spy on chinese ship's they will find out what cooking oil they use to fry the chips.
your not the only one with nukes.
it is normal for visiting ports but when china goes to sri-lanka india goes all hay wire.

 

[vayuputhra]

do you think iran is stupid enough to ignore pakistan? they are well aware of their capabilities. yes the only reason why there are not in yemen is because that they want to be out of it. but in terms of influence? indian wants to be a superpower but it cant now will t ever. heck your doing what pakistan did. the usa will be india's sugar daddy. the iranians see pakistan as a more important regional partner than india. and the region is mostly muslim countries and india a country that put cows on a higher class level than its minorities you have no chance. chabhar is just a way for india to get to afghanistan and central asia. and ghani has to under stand that india wont solve all of their problems. something the previous afghan president failed to see behind indian indian influence.
I think you believe a lot in ummah, that's your thought there are many other things apart from being a Muslim, there is national pride and pride of their sect & tribe, and more Muslims in India than the Arabian Peninsula, Muslims of one region are different from other region, Muslims in India are living a better life than the so called ummah countries, even many educated Pakistanis agree to it, here the point of religion is out, only national interest prevails, where was the ummah when Iran was sanctioned, it was India and Russia which helped Iran from ruin.on Iran seeing Pakistan as a regional partner, it is their thought what have we got to do with that, Iran asks India to invest in their country and they believe that they need India in their development, and the Saudi Pakistan tango always keeps them on tenterhooks.
One does not need permission from others to dream of becoming a superpower, one day the world will see.

dont know what your even saying here
I said it because you said that the two sheriffs were trying to pasify the warring factions of the world, India doesn't want to be a Sharif, we don't want to go into unwanted unconcerned conflicts.

yes i admit india's navy is big as i have said before but china's navy is bigger and growinf much faster than india's.
go ahead close the malakka straight let see what happens. remember its not only china's trade your stopping its even your own. and east asia's
hence why pakistan is a bypass for the malakka straight.
Yes I know that China is building gwadar port as an alternative way, I think you understand hometurf is advantageous than the invading forces when one has strong forces.tell me what is the distance on roadway from gwadar to shanghai, and the distance by sea? By the way Indian army watches the road from top enroute to gwadar, but the Chinese are saying other wise they want Pakistan as a dumpyard for Chinese goods, one will see the result soon, one more thing the road which the Chinese are building runs in disputed territory which is claimed by india.and the blockade will be for only Chinese ships not for other friendly countries, blocking doesn't mean building a wall in the ocean, only trade we have in the east comes from Japan and south Korea and will China attack their ships? And for buildup of navy we have enough ships to defend and in such scenario we will not be alone as we know Pakistan will help China.

oh no the notorious raw will spy on chinese ship's they will find out what cooking oil they use to fry the chips.
your not the only one with nukes.
it is normal for visiting ports but when china goes to sri-lanka india goes all hay wire.

We are not the only one who have nukes but we are one among the few, no more blackmailing us with nukes, and we have the means to deliver them, and our delivery boys can reach Beijing.
How do you know that we don't spy on the Chinese navy, the same way the chinese go all haywire when we visit, when our talwar frigate visited China they were thinking that it should be some third world stuff,when he saw our stuff on the frigate one should have seen his face nothing to say but hevwas not shown critical stuff.

 

[Red Wolf]

This is a complex region, in transition, with overlapping interests and shifting alliances. A containment strategy in this region is a pipe dream, in my opinion. For a case in point, refer to Iranian sanctions. The sanctions failed to achieve the desired result over two decades. In fact, India and China were buying oil from Iran during this time.

Binary thinking, fairly prevalent in this thread, is a thing of the past. A read of Henry Kissinger's World Order will give you a glimpse of the complex future we are all heading towards.

As for which route China would prefer, Chinese planners seems to be hedging their bets. Accordingly, China is making investments in Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, and Pakistan. This doesn't mean India is out of the picture. India has carefully hedged its own bets by joining SCO, AIIB, BCIM, etc.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

@dadeechi

Thanks for tagging me on this thread.

Containment of China in IO region should not been seen in isolation, rather larger part of China's containment in SCS and East Asia.

One must first assess how China will address American, Japanese, Australian and ASEAN presence in SCS.

Whatever naval resources is left with China will utilize for greater footprint in IO region.

Major Chinese presence in IO at this point or in future is/will limited to Pakistan and Djibouti.

Presence in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar are not of significance as none of these nations have an overt need like Pakistan for Chinese presence, due to perception of India as their main security concern.

For Djibouti, India is building its own base in Seychelles and eventually one in Mauritius might follow.

This will leave Chinese naval presence in Pakistan in isolation due to logistics. If India wishes make matters worse. India can militarize Lakshadweep Islands same as Andaman Nicobar Islands i.e establish a tri-service command.

To add to this, there is the growing Malabar exercises with Japan and US, plus current base sharing agreement with USA which will provide India access to Deigo Garcia and possibly Camp Lemonnier.

Overall India seems to on the offensive and relatively calm in regard to China's current/future IO presence

This can seen in Indian Navy's development.

We are paying the least emphasis on submarines and greater emphasis on anti-submarine warfare.

Also sometime in 2020s, we plan to naval vessels with anti-aircraft role, possibly to address future Chinese Aircraft carrier threat.

 

[Pangu]

I seriously don't understand where in the logical minds that Indian thinks Chinese naval vessels are going to threaten their security? It would be the other way round that India would threaten us if they so chooses. Anyway, have fun.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

as for china it will only get stronger and the countries it will arouse will get stronger too.

This is a very astute observation

Chinese can adopt American strategy of regional influence.

One of the major reasons for American global presence is strong and powerful allies who can very successfully defend their own spheres of influence. All thanks to American efforts to rebuild economies of her allies post WW2.

Similar way, an economically stronger Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will certainly resort to greater "strategic recklessness" in relations with India.

However the above strategy has its own shortcomings.

Can Pakistan ever achieve greater economic power?
With internal stability being questionable for atleast next decade, considering whether Pakistan has/will ever make any effort to quell radicalization of its populace from Saudi funded religious institutions.
Also short-sighted Pakistan leadership is banking entirely on CPEC for economic prosperity rather on other more lucrative options like IT, semi conductor industries and manufacturing.

For Sri Lanka and Bangladesh though being better positioned than Pakistan for economic prosperity, they have limitation in regard to population i.e Bangladesh population cannot expand due to high population density and even Sri Lanka's population doubles it will be a mere 40 million.
Any prospects of these nations to become future manufacturing and technological hub will require atleast minimum of 15-20 years.

In the mean India will not be sitting idle while these nations grow, India already has huge lead in terms of R&D, IT and manufacturing (with exception of semiconductor industries) in South Asia.

So prospects of South Asian nations to limit Indian influence even with greater economic prosperity is limited.