Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[Malik Alashter]

China's best bet is Pakistan!!!!.

But, the question is how deep is the chinese influence in Pakistan? that's the one million dollar question?.

Also how deep is the U.S influence on Pakistan.

When it comes to interest the American know how to play it they use every thing possible to have the first word on a country they think it is abig help either to them or to their opponent.

So the Chinese have two possibilities to gain access to the Indian ocean.

1- their navy that should be multiplied in AC's.

2- Pakistan if they have bigger influence on it's politicians.

 

[Spectre]

You will be living in the stone age without Chinese products or the Chinese market. Your IT exports are not competitive in China because you don't speak Chinese for domestic Chinese companies and if you are servicing western multinationals in China, they either want Chinese speakers or they'll hire you directly at their home country.

No thank you. You very selectively omitted Pharma exports and if our IT exports are non-competitive then let them fail why block them?

As for surviving without China goods we will make do. Entire world is dying to get into India - and I am sure we can do without cheap xiaomis or other electronics which can very well be manufactured in India. No need to spend valuable forex.

As for heavy machinaries like power plant equipments and like we already have L&T & BHEL making most of them albeit at a higher cost. We can pay extra or govt can subsidize them to make the competitive.

The conclusion- blocking China exports will hurt in short term but will be far beneficial in long term and will gell with make in India,

Remember this is not Vietnam, Pakistan or Phillipines you are trying to pull one over and bully. India is very well capable to cater to it's own needs. India runs a deficit vis a vis China so I am sure China has to reform it's import policy or suffer the loss of Indian exports.

Ciao

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

No thank you. You very selectively omitted Pharma exports and if our IT exports are non-competitive then let them fail why block them?

As for surviving without China goods we will make do. Entire world is dying to get into India - and I am sure we can do without cheap xiaomis or other electronics which can very well be manufactured in India. No need to spend valuable forex.

As for heavy machinaries like power plant equipments and like we already have L&T & BHEL making most of them albeit at a higher cost. We can pay extra or govt can subsidize them to make the competitive.

The conclusion- blocking China exports will hurt in short term but will be far beneficial in long term and will gell with make in India,

Remember this is not Vietnam, Pakistan or Phillipines you are trying to pull one over and bully. India is very well capable to cater to it's own needs. India runs a deficit vis a vis China so I am sure China has to reform it's import policy or suffer the loss of Indian exports.

Ciao

If you could you would but you can't so you don't. India tried an import substitution policy before and it failed miserably.

 

[shah1398]

Quite the opposite - India needs to cut off this addiction to Chinese goods which are harming Indian interests irrevocably. Many Indian Steel Manufacturing capacities are on the block due to dumping of cheap Chinese steel.

Further the relation is not reciprocated - China is still blocking access to Indian pharma and IT exports - two of the most competitive Indian sectors leading to huge negative deficit.

If China levels the playing field then status quo can be considered else GoI has to take stern action by imposing duties and preparing an exclusive negative list for China. We don't want Chinese Companies to rake in the benefits of huge Indian market if they are not prepared to give us access to their markets.

Ciao

Sir U are right in your way but my point was that if U become need of each other then its very rare that confrontation between the two parties might evolve into something like a full fledged war. Just take example of Switzerland. We would rarely find any enemy of it because its has offered something which is sort of refuge for every kind of money of the big guns. Ever wonder why there aint any security issue ever in Switzerland while the region near by has been facing different incidents in quite quick succession? Because if Switzerland is harmed the interests of big guns would be harmed along.Hope U got my point.

If you could you would but you can't so you don't. India tried an import substitution policy before and it failed miserably.

@Spectre I would agree here as China has the edge of manufacturing the cheapest of all stuff and that is why they are getting the orders. When even US could not get rid of China so is the case with almost ever country in the region. The only way to stop Chinese Goods from flooding your market is to cut off your ties with them. And Thats not going to happen ever.

 

[Tshering22]

IMO the talk of containing China would be futile. Let's face it; their interest is to secure their supply lines and our interest is our supply lines.

No matter what we do, we cannot dominate them in East Sea.

Same way they cannot dominate us in the BoB and Indian Ocean.

While the international law of freedom of navigation should be respected, it is really wrong to "contain someone" unless they are threatening your territorial waters or harassing international shipping.

Chinese are sensible people. There may have been some political calculations behind the ratcheting up of the clamor for East Sea, but largely, the waters will remain navigable for all vessels from the Southeast Asian countries.

I trust Xi Jinping will exercise restraint and apply rationale. He is a sensible man and things in the last few months show that Chinese are not some non-negotiable lunatics, albeit they prefer to negotiate from positions of power. Any sign of weakness and they capitalize on it; just like USA, UK or any other major country does.

Barring the issue of territorial waters which are overlapping some Chinese claim, I don't really see them as intent to threaten regional peace and going on a pan-Asia war.

The string of pearls is a strategic maneuver which is being looked at by Indian authorities and steps are being taken to ensure that both Indian and Chinese interests are not compromised in any sense.

Building ports and doing business is not wrong. However, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Myanmar will not be pleased to see their country involved in any conflict and therefore any port calling from PLAN will simply be restricted to port calling rather than making it a full blown military base.

There are actions and counter actions being taken simultaneously and hopefully things should go smooth.

There is already enough trouble on this planet at this moment than for either China or us to start a new one.

 

[Spectre]

If you could you would but you can't so you don't. India tried an import substitution policy before and it failed miserably.

We aren't going to substitute all imports just the Chinese ones, the gap can be filled with the combination of Indian production and imports from more friendly and reciprocal countries.

I am sure China does not have a monopoly on any single tech or resource that the west cant provide. We already get Uranium and other critical resources from Australia and others. We are manufacturing best of automobiles ourselves. We are self sufficient in pharma and it. Only thing China has an edge on is consumer electronics, steel and some other durables which can be subsituted reliably from other sources

Infact China does not invest all that much in India when compared to Japan and others.

 

[Indika]

Iran can never counterbalance Pakistan. With their superiority complex, sectarian mindset and fu**ing with Arabs, it can just hold its ground on some sectarian Shia organization and countries.

With Iran being weak under sanctions pakistan was having a good time . Once their economy becomes strong it will try to influence neighboring countries.

We all know Muslim world comprises of Sunni majority. Arabs, comprises of 30-40% of Muslim world don't like Iran, Turkey another very very important Muslim power don't like Iran at all and both have problems with each other. Pakistan is the only Sunni majority country in world who has soft corner for Iran but a lot of people over here don't like Iran at all but despise it due to its sectarian policies. You need to have soft power to build your image not by supporting proxies in Arab world.

Do you know whose proxy Jundallah is and where they operate from ?

Pakistan, on the contrary, always enjoy support among Arabs, and always have played role in ME conflicts. Arabs will choose Pakistan over Iran any time. Pakistan enjoys support in African Muslim countries and as far as Turkey is concerned, a very important power in Muslim world, you all know very well how Pakistanis love Turks and Turks love us. A very special bond that can never be broken.

Pakistan is undisputed leader of Muslim world along with Turkey and in my opinion, we will continue to enjoy such status for a very long time.

You have given lot of reasons why Iran should hate pakistan. Being slaves of arab is not a great thing to boast about and persians dont like them either. Pakistan-Saudi nexus is good enuf for Iran to be wary about pakistan.
Good luck pakistan , interesting times ahead.

IMO the talk of containing China would be futile. Let's face it; their interest is to secure their supply lines and our interest is our supply lines.

Trade brings prosperity , one who controls it becomes powerful. US is not walking away , they will do what the british empire did. One reason why US is powerful is bcos of dollar. Now you weaken it , you are reducing their strength. Chinese now compete with US for power & influence.

No matter what we do, we cannot dominate them in East Sea.

Same way they cannot dominate us in the BoB and Indian Ocean.

But if china weakens or get stuck in east sea it will give breathing support to India in north east. A uncontained china after some time will come after India. Remember Tibet, India kept quiet then we finally became the victim. Indias intention is not to beat china in their own backyard but to ensure that they get stuck there.

While the international law of freedom of navigation should be respected, it is really wrong to "contain someone" unless they are threatening your territorial waters or harassing international shipping.

No such thing, might is right. China happily indulges pakistan,korea,cambodia..etc now they simply cannot walk away from it. Every country will use their own strength and for countries in SCS blocking sea lanes is their strength.

Barring the issue of territorial waters which are overlapping some Chinese claim, I don't really see them as intent to threaten regional peace and going on a pan-Asia war.

Take a look at the map of SCS , china is coveting territories which are way far from mainland. They are simply behaving like a colonial power. If oil is found in SCS then whole region will be on fire.

 

[ebrahym]

1) China=>Tajikistan=>Afghanistan=>Iran=>Indian Ocean

US still controls Afghanistan and with the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran would move towards US. Hence this option would be dead.

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

US has comprehensive package to move away from China's CPEC which included Nuclear deal, Military aid and building up of conventional military capability.

So far Pakistan has been shunning US' offer and proceeding with China's offer on CPEC.

This is very alive and kicking.

3) China=>India=> Indian Ocean

China's aggressive foray into South Asia has made India doubt China's intentions and India for now has decided to stay away from the Chinese proposal

4) China=>Myanmar=> Indian Ocean

US-Myanmar (military leadership) détente, Improving India-Myanmar relations and the subsequent election of US leaning Aung San Suu Kyi to power has for now dampened Chinese interest but this is still a very viable option.

5) China=>SCS=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean
and
6) China=>Laos=>Thailand=> Indian Ocean

Kra Canal is still on the table and China has good relationship with Laos. It needs to be seen how much US & India could influence Thailand.

This very much on the table.

7) China=>SCS=> Strait of Malacca=> Indian Ocean

This has been traditional controlled by US and hence China is looking at alternative routes.

looks like Pakistan importance is expanding in region

 

[PDF]

In the current scenario, CPEC is the most suitable option. China understood this and thus, are picking Pakistan.
Iran will take time to recover from the effects and consequences of sanctions. Other routes are not much preferable than of Pakistan.
But in the end, only time will tell us.

 

[xunzi]

India is just a pawn and everyone know Indian Ocean doesn't belong to India so if you attempt to block us, you know there is a consequence.

 

[Beast]

India is just a pawn and everyone know Indian Ocean doesn't belong to India so if you attempt to block us, you know there is a consequence.

China just park the DF-26 at tibet border near India and whole IN will be immobilised without even needing sending a warship.

 

[vayuputhra]

As I said earlier, the game is between US & China. India is just a pawn like many other countries in the region.



Yes. I think US-Iran relations are going to transform. The key country here is Pakistan. That is one of the reasons why China says that Pakistan is China's Israel meaning it would go to any lengths to protect the CPEC route through Pakistan as that is the most viable one.

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Every country does take decision in its own interest, China doesn't like any other country to rise in its vicinity, for that it has been gradually engaging with Pakistan and pampering it with goodies, so as to keep India busy with Pakistan and as a result of conflict India's growth is stunted, this is their strategic thinking, at the same time they are encouraging commi elements in India, as in India it has always been socialist parties like congress ruling for long time which always had a soft corner for China, they are also encouraging India's neighbours to revolt against India, this has been going on for dacades but our strategic thinkers were never allowed to implement counter strategy because of the same soft corner syndrome,
China also has lot of trouble in its neighbourhood, as it acts as a hegimonistic thug dictating every thing, India has only now woke up from the deep slumber, because those with soft corner are in the back burner, the Chinese principal of string of Perl's is a strategy, then its time for India to join like minded people like Japan, US, Australia, Vietnam, south Korea, Indonesia, phillipines, even Mongolia to form a band of friends, and India should never abandon our friends, trust is built over years.
As for the game between US and China, definitely it will have impact on all the neighbours of China, India should use the opportunity well, this is the time India can and should play a role, we should strive for the balance of power in Asia, which is now imbalanced, India should ask America as a fellow democracy to help India for parity, world respects only power, India should leave all its previous thoughts and think a new.

 

[Darth Vader]

That was history. Pakistan is getting into a full embrace of China after the CPEC agreement. Most of the recent acquisitions have all been from China unless funded by US military assistance/aid which itself on the wane.

Uncle Sam is Stalling While European products are to expensive or come with uncle sams string attached e.g tai 129
As for Russia India comes into play leaves only reliable option of china

 

[Devil Soul]

China have been working slowly on expanding her influence by helping diff countries economically, its the right approach, slow , time consuming but effective

 

[PeaceGen]

The US-Iran relationship is like the US-Russian relationship now; domestic nationalism fostering, secretly sort-of-on-the-same-page