China’s population up less than half a million in 2021, births plunge again as crisis deepens
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lcloo
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China does not need immigrants. China can still prosper with even less than 1 billion people. China is no more a heavy labour relying countries. More lands in China should be re-convert to forests and nature parks, instead of occupy by towns and villages.
Less people sharing an increasing national wealth (sharing common prosperity) means GDP per capital will increase, housing prices will be more affordable, more doctors per 10,000 people etc etc.
Then what will happen to old people that have no children to support them??? #sharing common prosperity is the key, after all China is still a socialist communist country where the government should take care of its people, just like the policy of eliminating absolute poverty of Chinese people.
If you observe China with fine comb, you will notice that the super rich people who do not share their social responsibility of helping the country to elevate income of the people, in particular, their employees, they will likely be in the target sight of the central government in investigations on tax cheating, corruptions, business monoploy etc. On the other hand, companies like Huawei that give its employees the lion's share in the company's wealth, they got support from government.
China is not alone in facing population growth slow downs, practically every major economies in the world are facing same problem, but China has the advantage in number of 1.4 billion and advance AI technology for economy and social well being.
Many people choose to ignore tha fact that less people share more wealth is better than more people chasing after the same cake.
Less people sharing an increasing national wealth (sharing common prosperity) means GDP per capital will increase, housing prices will be more affordable, more doctors per 10,000 people etc etc.
Then what will happen to old people that have no children to support them??? #sharing common prosperity is the key, after all China is still a socialist communist country where the government should take care of its people, just like the policy of eliminating absolute poverty of Chinese people.
If you observe China with fine comb, you will notice that the super rich people who do not share their social responsibility of helping the country to elevate income of the people, in particular, their employees, they will likely be in the target sight of the central government in investigations on tax cheating, corruptions, business monoploy etc. On the other hand, companies like Huawei that give its employees the lion's share in the company's wealth, they got support from government.
China is not alone in facing population growth slow downs, practically every major economies in the world are facing same problem, but China has the advantage in number of 1.4 billion and advance AI technology for economy and social well being.
Many people choose to ignore tha fact that less people share more wealth is better than more people chasing after the same cake.
Song Hong
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The impact of low fertility is more serious than most imagine. For example before local government can sell land and build infrastructure.
This is no longer possible if no one reproduced. There will be massive asset deflation everywhere, destroying m3 monies.
People who can borrow 1 million using house as collateral now can borrow only 100k.
Economy slow massively.
This is no longer possible if no one reproduced. There will be massive asset deflation everywhere, destroying m3 monies.
People who can borrow 1 million using house as collateral now can borrow only 100k.
Economy slow massively.
Honestly, thinking of the root of the issue, there are many reasons for low marriage rate nowadays.
1. Salary is never enough.
2. Housing/Rent is too expensive.
3. Kids too expensive.
4. People think kids aren't worth it.
5. Work time is too long, no time to meet or talk with girls.
6. Pandemic, everyone working at home, limit social interaction.
7. Anti-natalist propaganda everywhere.
There should be free housing and active government match-making agencies.
That or we are talking about artificial wombs.
1. Salary is never enough.
2. Housing/Rent is too expensive.
3. Kids too expensive.
4. People think kids aren't worth it.
5. Work time is too long, no time to meet or talk with girls.
6. Pandemic, everyone working at home, limit social interaction.
7. Anti-natalist propaganda everywhere.
There should be free housing and active government match-making agencies.
That or we are talking about artificial wombs.
obj 705A
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Population decline is the biggest threat to Chinese national security in the long term since the fertility is well bellow what is needed to stabilise the population numbers.
Immigration cannot solve this issue, even if China simplifies the process of giving foreigners Chinese citizenship, the language barrier alone is enough to dissuade 90% of those who want to immigrate from choosing China as their destination and instead they would chose to go to the western world since Chinese is one of the most difficult languages to learn. And of those few who are willing to learn a difficult language a good portion of them would probably chose to go to Japan, Singapore or SK etc.. instead of choosing China. and the few remaining who would chose to go to China, the fertility they would provide would be like a drop in the bucket due to China's massive population.
The only solution is to raise the Chinese people's own fertility.
several decades ago the only thing a woman wanted is to have a husband, a house and kids. But now women spend a longer portion of their lives on education and work all to get more money, they need that money because their goal in life is to buy the newest laptops, smartphones, TVs, they need money to spend for their online subscriptions for movies, music etc.. and this cannot be reversed, you cannot tell people to stop spending on things they like.
IMO I think once automation absolutely dominates all industries maybe the price of goods would be low enough that people would be able to afford to have everything they want and still have a lot of time and money to spare for having kids.
Immigration cannot solve this issue, even if China simplifies the process of giving foreigners Chinese citizenship, the language barrier alone is enough to dissuade 90% of those who want to immigrate from choosing China as their destination and instead they would chose to go to the western world since Chinese is one of the most difficult languages to learn. And of those few who are willing to learn a difficult language a good portion of them would probably chose to go to Japan, Singapore or SK etc.. instead of choosing China. and the few remaining who would chose to go to China, the fertility they would provide would be like a drop in the bucket due to China's massive population.
The only solution is to raise the Chinese people's own fertility.
several decades ago the only thing a woman wanted is to have a husband, a house and kids. But now women spend a longer portion of their lives on education and work all to get more money, they need that money because their goal in life is to buy the newest laptops, smartphones, TVs, they need money to spend for their online subscriptions for movies, music etc.. and this cannot be reversed, you cannot tell people to stop spending on things they like.
IMO I think once automation absolutely dominates all industries maybe the price of goods would be low enough that people would be able to afford to have everything they want and still have a lot of time and money to spare for having kids.
lcloo
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Imagine a super rich China with only 800 million population and 2 billion slaves working for them. Every Chinese have nice big houses, a lot of leisure spaces in city parks, nature parks, wild life parks, un-crowded beaches etc. etc. People only need to work 4 days a week.
They don't have to feed their slaves because these slaves only need batteries/power pack to come alive. And they work 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
That day might come in 2080 or 2100.
On the other hand, a struggling China with 2 billion population in 2080, housing are super expensive, there is no food security, treatment plants and sites treating pollution from industrial and consumer waste competing with 2 billion humans for land spaces, er!!!
We may think this is impossible, but 30 years ago who could believe that Chinese could land a rover on planet Mars in 2021, who in 1988 would believe that China could become World's 2nd largest economy today, and the largest economic power in ppp term.
They don't have to feed their slaves because these slaves only need batteries/power pack to come alive. And they work 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
That day might come in 2080 or 2100.
On the other hand, a struggling China with 2 billion population in 2080, housing are super expensive, there is no food security, treatment plants and sites treating pollution from industrial and consumer waste competing with 2 billion humans for land spaces, er!!!
We may think this is impossible, but 30 years ago who could believe that Chinese could land a rover on planet Mars in 2021, who in 1988 would believe that China could become World's 2nd largest economy today, and the largest economic power in ppp term.
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In early 2008, the median age of Vietnamese was around 28. In 2020, it was 32.5 (according to UN figure, Wikipedia). And now (early 2022), it is 33.3 (as per danso.org). At this speed, the median age of Vietnamese will be around 40 within 20 years.
Looking like most East / South East Asian countries (except Phillipines, Laos and Cambodia) have ageing population problem.
Good luck to Fillipino, Laotian and Cambodian people. Together with India and sub-Saharan African countries, they will be superpowers in near future, will rule East Asia (and possibly the world) and will live happily forever, unlike us ageing countries.
Looking like most East / South East Asian countries (except Phillipines, Laos and Cambodia) have ageing population problem.
Good luck to Fillipino, Laotian and Cambodian people. Together with India and sub-Saharan African countries, they will be superpowers in near future, will rule East Asia (and possibly the world) and will live happily forever, unlike us ageing countries.
Song Hong
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Unlike all other East Asian countries, Vietnam woman still want to have at least 2 babies and they are not divorcing.
Vietnam have a big problem now, traitor Nguyen Tan Dung privatized land. Now government cant do anything to lower house price. A lot of good Land are now in the hands of white glove backed by foreign capitals.
kankan326
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PHilipines is a Latin American country from all aspects to say except the location and race.
serenity
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Exactly. The goal is to have like a Switzerland level of balance (but 500 times larger) than to be a 1970s China balance between resources and people.
lcloo
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Surprise, China is not even among top 20 countries with decling population growth. In East Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan face worst population declining than Mainland China.
Due to varying demographic challenges around the world, many countries are facing shrinking populations. The United Nations publishes demographic projections regularly, allowing Business Insider to study the fertility, mortality, and international migration projections to determine the 20 countries projected to have the largest percentage population declines over the next three decades (2020-2050).
1. Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s population is expected to decline by 22.5% from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million in 2050. Mass outbound migration is the largest contributor towards Bulgaria’s population decline.
2. Lithuania
The Lithuanian population is projected to shrink by 22.1% over the next three decades. The population is expected to shrink from 2.7 million to 2.1 million people. Like Bulgaria, Lithuania’s largest population loss is due to mass migration.
3. Latvia
Latvia is expecting a 21.6% population loss between 2020 and 2050. Latvia has lost about one-fifth of its population since joining the European Union in May 2004. Latvia’s population loss is caused by economic migration and low birth rates.
4. Ukraine
Ukraine’s population is projected to drop from 43.7 million in 2020 to 35.2 million in 2050, a 19.5% loss. High emigration rates coupled with high death rates and low birth rates are to blame for Ukraine’s population loss. The country’s birth rate is 9.2 births per 1,000 people and its death rate is 15.2 deaths per 1,000 people.
5. Serbia
The Serbian population is expected to decline from 8.7 million to 7.1 million over the next 30 years. This is a decline of about 18.9%. Many of Serbia’s highly educated and skilled workers have left the country to find better job opportunities since there are very few in Serbia. The high migration rates are coupled with low fertility rates.
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
The population is projected to decline by 18.2%, shrinking from 3.3 million in 2020 to 2.7 million in 2050. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fertility rate is well below the population replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman at 1.26 births per woman.
7. Croatia
Croatia’s population is expected to shrink by 18.0%. The population is projected to drop from 4.1 million to 3.4 million over the next 30 years. The population reached its peak in 1991 at 4.78 million but has been declining since because of low birth rates and an aging population.
8. Moldova
Moldova’s population will decline by 16.7% from 2020 to 2050. The population is expected to fall by 600,000 from 4 million to 3.4 million. Poverty and corruption in Moldova have pushed the highly-skilled, young workers away from the country and the aging population has been plagued by poor living standards and high mortality rates.
9. Japan
Japan’s population is projected to lose 20.7 million people between 2020 and 2050. The population is expected to shrink from 126.5 million to 105.8 million, a 16.3% decline. Japan’s population has been falling since 2011 due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an aging population.
10. Albania
The Albanian population is expected to decrease by 15.8% over the next 30 years, falling from 2.9 million people to 2.4 million people. It is estimated that over 38% of the Albanian population lives abroad.
11. Romania
Romania’s population is projected to decline by 15.5% from 2020 to 2050. The population will reduce from 19.2 million to 16.3 million over the next three decades. Between 2007 and 2015, about 3.5 million Romanians have gone abroad to escape poverty and widespread corruption.
12. Greece
The population of Greece is expected to shrink from 10.4 million to 9.0 million, 1 13.4% over the next 30 years. Greece’s population began declining in 2011 when the first negative birth rate was recorded. Greece’s population could decline up to 50% over the next 50 years if nothing is done to combat it.
13. Estonia
Estonia’s population of 1.3 million is projected to decline by 12.7% to 1.2 million by 2050. Compared to other Baltic states, Estonia’s population decline has been relatively slow and stable. Immigration has delayed a quicker population decline in recent years.
14. Hungary
Hungary’s population is projected to drop from 9.7 million in 2020 to 8.5 million in 2050. This is a population decline of about 12.3%. Hungary’s population has fallen by about over 40,000 per year and shows no signs of slowing down. Policies Hungary to help slow the population decline are focused on boosting birthrates.
15. Poland
Poland’s population is predicted to drop by 12.0%. Over the next 30 years, the population will drop from 37.8 million to 33.3 million people. Low birth rates and continued emigration are the two main reasons for Poland’s population decline.
16. Georgia
The population is expected to decline by 11.8%, shrinking from 4.0 million to 3.5 million from 2020 to 2050. The decline in Georgia’s population is caused by the emigration in search of better jobs in other countries.
17. Portugal
The Portuguese population is projected to decline from 10.2 million to 9.1 million over the next three decades, a 10.9% decline. Portugal has made attempts to lure back those who emigrated, whether or not they are highly paid or highly skilled.
18. North Macedonia
North Macedonia’s population is expected to drop by 10.9%, shrinking from 2.1 million to 1.9 million from 2020 to 2050. North Macedonia’s population has fallen by 24.6% since its independence in 1991.
19. Cuba
Cuba’s population of 11.3 million is expected to shrink to 10.2 million by 2050, a 10.3% decline. The young people leaving the country and low birth rates are resulting in an increasingly aging population. Cuba’s population is expected to be the ninth-oldest in the world by 2050.
20. Italy
Italy’s population is projected to shrinking by 10.1% from 2020 to 2050. The current population of 60.5 million people will reduce to 54.4 million over the next 30 years. Births are at an all-time low since the unification of Italy and young people are leaving Italy to other European countries for job opportunities.
Countries With Declining Population 2021 (worldpopulationreview.com)
Due to varying demographic challenges around the world, many countries are facing shrinking populations. The United Nations publishes demographic projections regularly, allowing Business Insider to study the fertility, mortality, and international migration projections to determine the 20 countries projected to have the largest percentage population declines over the next three decades (2020-2050).
1. Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s population is expected to decline by 22.5% from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million in 2050. Mass outbound migration is the largest contributor towards Bulgaria’s population decline.
2. Lithuania
The Lithuanian population is projected to shrink by 22.1% over the next three decades. The population is expected to shrink from 2.7 million to 2.1 million people. Like Bulgaria, Lithuania’s largest population loss is due to mass migration.
3. Latvia
Latvia is expecting a 21.6% population loss between 2020 and 2050. Latvia has lost about one-fifth of its population since joining the European Union in May 2004. Latvia’s population loss is caused by economic migration and low birth rates.
4. Ukraine
Ukraine’s population is projected to drop from 43.7 million in 2020 to 35.2 million in 2050, a 19.5% loss. High emigration rates coupled with high death rates and low birth rates are to blame for Ukraine’s population loss. The country’s birth rate is 9.2 births per 1,000 people and its death rate is 15.2 deaths per 1,000 people.
5. Serbia
The Serbian population is expected to decline from 8.7 million to 7.1 million over the next 30 years. This is a decline of about 18.9%. Many of Serbia’s highly educated and skilled workers have left the country to find better job opportunities since there are very few in Serbia. The high migration rates are coupled with low fertility rates.
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
The population is projected to decline by 18.2%, shrinking from 3.3 million in 2020 to 2.7 million in 2050. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fertility rate is well below the population replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman at 1.26 births per woman.
7. Croatia
Croatia’s population is expected to shrink by 18.0%. The population is projected to drop from 4.1 million to 3.4 million over the next 30 years. The population reached its peak in 1991 at 4.78 million but has been declining since because of low birth rates and an aging population.
8. Moldova
Moldova’s population will decline by 16.7% from 2020 to 2050. The population is expected to fall by 600,000 from 4 million to 3.4 million. Poverty and corruption in Moldova have pushed the highly-skilled, young workers away from the country and the aging population has been plagued by poor living standards and high mortality rates.
9. Japan
Japan’s population is projected to lose 20.7 million people between 2020 and 2050. The population is expected to shrink from 126.5 million to 105.8 million, a 16.3% decline. Japan’s population has been falling since 2011 due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an aging population.
10. Albania
The Albanian population is expected to decrease by 15.8% over the next 30 years, falling from 2.9 million people to 2.4 million people. It is estimated that over 38% of the Albanian population lives abroad.
11. Romania
Romania’s population is projected to decline by 15.5% from 2020 to 2050. The population will reduce from 19.2 million to 16.3 million over the next three decades. Between 2007 and 2015, about 3.5 million Romanians have gone abroad to escape poverty and widespread corruption.
12. Greece
The population of Greece is expected to shrink from 10.4 million to 9.0 million, 1 13.4% over the next 30 years. Greece’s population began declining in 2011 when the first negative birth rate was recorded. Greece’s population could decline up to 50% over the next 50 years if nothing is done to combat it.
13. Estonia
Estonia’s population of 1.3 million is projected to decline by 12.7% to 1.2 million by 2050. Compared to other Baltic states, Estonia’s population decline has been relatively slow and stable. Immigration has delayed a quicker population decline in recent years.
14. Hungary
Hungary’s population is projected to drop from 9.7 million in 2020 to 8.5 million in 2050. This is a population decline of about 12.3%. Hungary’s population has fallen by about over 40,000 per year and shows no signs of slowing down. Policies Hungary to help slow the population decline are focused on boosting birthrates.
15. Poland
Poland’s population is predicted to drop by 12.0%. Over the next 30 years, the population will drop from 37.8 million to 33.3 million people. Low birth rates and continued emigration are the two main reasons for Poland’s population decline.
16. Georgia
The population is expected to decline by 11.8%, shrinking from 4.0 million to 3.5 million from 2020 to 2050. The decline in Georgia’s population is caused by the emigration in search of better jobs in other countries.
17. Portugal
The Portuguese population is projected to decline from 10.2 million to 9.1 million over the next three decades, a 10.9% decline. Portugal has made attempts to lure back those who emigrated, whether or not they are highly paid or highly skilled.
18. North Macedonia
North Macedonia’s population is expected to drop by 10.9%, shrinking from 2.1 million to 1.9 million from 2020 to 2050. North Macedonia’s population has fallen by 24.6% since its independence in 1991.
19. Cuba
Cuba’s population of 11.3 million is expected to shrink to 10.2 million by 2050, a 10.3% decline. The young people leaving the country and low birth rates are resulting in an increasingly aging population. Cuba’s population is expected to be the ninth-oldest in the world by 2050.
20. Italy
Italy’s population is projected to shrinking by 10.1% from 2020 to 2050. The current population of 60.5 million people will reduce to 54.4 million over the next 30 years. Births are at an all-time low since the unification of Italy and young people are leaving Italy to other European countries for job opportunities.
Countries With Declining Population 2021 (worldpopulationreview.com)
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FairAndUnbiased
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an empty China with only 800 million people is a nightmare. You know, we already have the labor equivalent of 30 billion people in China? That's how much electricity helps. One person today consumes enough electricity to do the labor of 30 medieval people through computers, dishwashers, electric oven, washing machines, power tools, etc. At this point human attention, not dumb labor, is the constraint. One person can't manage too much more technology at this point. You can't have 50 dishwashers in 1 house. More humans = more attention.
The strength of the Chinese people has always been 1. large population 2. family values 3. strong culture 4. sense of equality 5. technological ingenuity. A small population of less than 1 billion directly threatens the top 3 core strengths. Less children doesn't just mean less burden, it also means less teachers, less demand for schools and education, less students to do research, etc.
Chinese share of global population today is lower than ever. China used to be 1/3 of the entire human population in the Ming Dynasty. Today? Not even 20%.
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