大汉奸柳传志
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Views of China and the Global Balance of Power
By Richard Wike, Bruce Stokes and Jacob Poushter
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, many commentators remarked that the era of U.S. dominance of the global economy and position as sole superpower were at an end. However, in the intervening years, a sustained economic recovery in the U.S. has bolstered its leadership credentials, and in the current survey, about twice as many people worldwide say that the U.S., and not China, is the world’s leading economy. Nonetheless, global publics continue to express the view that China either has or eventually will replace the U.S. as the leading superpower.
Majorities or pluralities have positive sentiments towards China in 27 of the countries surveyed in 2015. China’s image has improved in the last year across the countries polled. And these favorable views are particularly evident among the young. But China’s human rights record is still a stain on its reputation. On balance, the publics surveyed believe that the Chinese government does not respect the personal freedoms of its people.
Across the 40 countries surveyed in spring 2015, a median of half say that the U.S. is the world’s leading economic power. Only 27% across these same nations say that China is the top global economy. A median of 6% name Japan as the top economy, while 5% cite the nations of the EU.
Majorities or pluralities in 30 of 40 countries name the U.S. as the top economy, including all of the African and Latin American countries surveyed. Six-in-ten or more say the U.S. is the global economic leader in Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana, Ethiopia and Mexico. In all of these nations, roughly a quarter or less say China is the leading economic power.
In every Asian-Pacific country surveyed but one, people choose the U.S. as the leading economic power, including 66% in India and the Philippines. Even in China, 44% say that the U.S. is the top economy, while only 34% name their own country. In Australia, however, a majority (57%) see China as the world’s economic leader, while 31% name the U.S.
On balance, the Middle Eastern countries polled say the U.S. is the number one economy, with 63% of Israelis expressing this view, as well as 48% of Palestinians and 47% of Turks. But Lebanese are split (44% U.S., 44% China) and a plurality of Jordanians (47%) say China is the economic leader.
During a grim time for U.S.-Russia relations, 37% of Russians say China is the leading economy, while just 24% believe it is the U.S.
In the EU, opinion on the balance of power between the Chinese and American economies is on a knife’s edge. In Italy, Spain and the UK, nearly equal numbers choose either country as the number one economy. But in France and Germany, public opinion tilts more toward China (49% and 39% respectively), while a quarter of Germans also say the countries of the EU are the leading economic power. However, a 48%-plurality in Poland says the U.S. is number one.
Americans tend to believe their country is the leading economic power (46%), although 36% name China. It is the opposite in Canada, where 46% say China is the world’s top economy and 34% name the U.S.
In half of the countries surveyed in 2014 and 2015, there has been a significant increase in the belief that the U.S. is the world’s economic superpower. This includes double-digit gains in India, the Palestinian territories, Kenya, Ghana, Pakistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Malaysia, Senegal, Nigeria, Ukraine and South Africa.
There has also been a rebound in some European nations (Poland, Spain and Germany) when it comes to seeing the U.S. as the top economy, helping it to draw even in a contest that was clearly in China’s favor in the years following the Great Recession. In the U.S. itself, more people now say the U.S. is the global economic leader compared to any previous survey going back to 2009.
In China, many fewer people now say the U.S. is the world’s leading economy compared with 2014 (-11 percentage points). Significant drops also occurred in Asia among South Koreans (-9) and Vietnamese (-6).
When asked about the future, people around the world are generally convinced that China either will eventually replace or already has replaced the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower. Overall, majorities or pluralities in 27 of 40 countries surveyed say this. It is important to note, however, that in no country do more than 26% say China has already replaced the U.S. Instead, the more common view is that China will eventually take its place as the global superpower.
Around equal numbers of Americans say China has replaced or will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower as say that China will never replace the U.S. (46% vs. 48%). By a 52%-40% margin, Canadians think that China will or has replaced the U.S.
European Union countries surveyed all agree that China will become the world’s top power, ranging from 66% in France to 46% in Poland. Among the regions surveyed, Europeans are the most convinced that the U.S.’s days as top power are numbered.
Middle Easterners are also convinced that China will eventually overtake the U.S., including 56% of Israelis.
Countries in Asia and the Pacific have the most diverse opinions when it comes to China’s status as a superpower. Overall, a median of 41% in these countries say China will or already has replaced the U.S., while 38% say it will never happen.
More than half in China (67%), Australia (66%), South Korea (59%) and Pakistan (53%) say China will eventually be the world’s leading power. A plurality of Malaysians also agree, but Indians are split on this issue. Meanwhile, roughly two-thirds or more in Japan (77%), Vietnam (67%) and the Philippines (65%) say that China will never replace the U.S. as the globe’s superpower, which are the highest such readings across the countries surveyed.
Latin American publics generally think that the U.S. will lose its position as the globe’s superpower, but not every country in the region agrees. The most likely to say China will surpass the U.S. are Argentina (56%), Chile (53%) and Peru (50%). However, 56% of Brazilians say the U.S. will never be replaced.
In the nine African nations surveyed, pluralities in six believe the U.S. will be replaced by China, including roughly half in Burkina Faso, Senegal, Tanzania and Kenya.
In 17 of the countries surveyed, younger people are more likely to say China has or will replace the U.S. as the leading superpower. For example, 65% of Canadians ages 18-29 think China will or has replaced the U.S., while only 46% among those ages 50 and older say the same. This age gap also exists in the U.S. itself, as well as a diverse array of countries across the globe.
By Richard Wike, Bruce Stokes and Jacob Poushter
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, many commentators remarked that the era of U.S. dominance of the global economy and position as sole superpower were at an end. However, in the intervening years, a sustained economic recovery in the U.S. has bolstered its leadership credentials, and in the current survey, about twice as many people worldwide say that the U.S., and not China, is the world’s leading economy. Nonetheless, global publics continue to express the view that China either has or eventually will replace the U.S. as the leading superpower.
Majorities or pluralities have positive sentiments towards China in 27 of the countries surveyed in 2015. China’s image has improved in the last year across the countries polled. And these favorable views are particularly evident among the young. But China’s human rights record is still a stain on its reputation. On balance, the publics surveyed believe that the Chinese government does not respect the personal freedoms of its people.
Across the 40 countries surveyed in spring 2015, a median of half say that the U.S. is the world’s leading economic power. Only 27% across these same nations say that China is the top global economy. A median of 6% name Japan as the top economy, while 5% cite the nations of the EU.
Majorities or pluralities in 30 of 40 countries name the U.S. as the top economy, including all of the African and Latin American countries surveyed. Six-in-ten or more say the U.S. is the global economic leader in Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana, Ethiopia and Mexico. In all of these nations, roughly a quarter or less say China is the leading economic power.
In every Asian-Pacific country surveyed but one, people choose the U.S. as the leading economic power, including 66% in India and the Philippines. Even in China, 44% say that the U.S. is the top economy, while only 34% name their own country. In Australia, however, a majority (57%) see China as the world’s economic leader, while 31% name the U.S.
On balance, the Middle Eastern countries polled say the U.S. is the number one economy, with 63% of Israelis expressing this view, as well as 48% of Palestinians and 47% of Turks. But Lebanese are split (44% U.S., 44% China) and a plurality of Jordanians (47%) say China is the economic leader.
During a grim time for U.S.-Russia relations, 37% of Russians say China is the leading economy, while just 24% believe it is the U.S.
In the EU, opinion on the balance of power between the Chinese and American economies is on a knife’s edge. In Italy, Spain and the UK, nearly equal numbers choose either country as the number one economy. But in France and Germany, public opinion tilts more toward China (49% and 39% respectively), while a quarter of Germans also say the countries of the EU are the leading economic power. However, a 48%-plurality in Poland says the U.S. is number one.
Americans tend to believe their country is the leading economic power (46%), although 36% name China. It is the opposite in Canada, where 46% say China is the world’s top economy and 34% name the U.S.
In half of the countries surveyed in 2014 and 2015, there has been a significant increase in the belief that the U.S. is the world’s economic superpower. This includes double-digit gains in India, the Palestinian territories, Kenya, Ghana, Pakistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Malaysia, Senegal, Nigeria, Ukraine and South Africa.
There has also been a rebound in some European nations (Poland, Spain and Germany) when it comes to seeing the U.S. as the top economy, helping it to draw even in a contest that was clearly in China’s favor in the years following the Great Recession. In the U.S. itself, more people now say the U.S. is the global economic leader compared to any previous survey going back to 2009.
In China, many fewer people now say the U.S. is the world’s leading economy compared with 2014 (-11 percentage points). Significant drops also occurred in Asia among South Koreans (-9) and Vietnamese (-6).
When asked about the future, people around the world are generally convinced that China either will eventually replace or already has replaced the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower. Overall, majorities or pluralities in 27 of 40 countries surveyed say this. It is important to note, however, that in no country do more than 26% say China has already replaced the U.S. Instead, the more common view is that China will eventually take its place as the global superpower.
Around equal numbers of Americans say China has replaced or will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower as say that China will never replace the U.S. (46% vs. 48%). By a 52%-40% margin, Canadians think that China will or has replaced the U.S.
European Union countries surveyed all agree that China will become the world’s top power, ranging from 66% in France to 46% in Poland. Among the regions surveyed, Europeans are the most convinced that the U.S.’s days as top power are numbered.
Middle Easterners are also convinced that China will eventually overtake the U.S., including 56% of Israelis.
Countries in Asia and the Pacific have the most diverse opinions when it comes to China’s status as a superpower. Overall, a median of 41% in these countries say China will or already has replaced the U.S., while 38% say it will never happen.
More than half in China (67%), Australia (66%), South Korea (59%) and Pakistan (53%) say China will eventually be the world’s leading power. A plurality of Malaysians also agree, but Indians are split on this issue. Meanwhile, roughly two-thirds or more in Japan (77%), Vietnam (67%) and the Philippines (65%) say that China will never replace the U.S. as the globe’s superpower, which are the highest such readings across the countries surveyed.
Latin American publics generally think that the U.S. will lose its position as the globe’s superpower, but not every country in the region agrees. The most likely to say China will surpass the U.S. are Argentina (56%), Chile (53%) and Peru (50%). However, 56% of Brazilians say the U.S. will never be replaced.
In the nine African nations surveyed, pluralities in six believe the U.S. will be replaced by China, including roughly half in Burkina Faso, Senegal, Tanzania and Kenya.
In 17 of the countries surveyed, younger people are more likely to say China has or will replace the U.S. as the leading superpower. For example, 65% of Canadians ages 18-29 think China will or has replaced the U.S., while only 46% among those ages 50 and older say the same. This age gap also exists in the U.S. itself, as well as a diverse array of countries across the globe.
