China’s Economy Overtaking the U.S. Will Be Harder Than It Looks

[nahtanbob]

China is not Japan. Still has plenty of room to grow. China has 1.4 billion people.

in an era of climate change it is a liability

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Americans esp. the Khmer Krom migrants are so confident that USA can regain its former even if US GDP is passed by China says by 2026.
This is despite the fact that USA economy is not based on production but Wall Street.

And today Wall Street is a big bubble fakely propped by the Fed.

When it finally burst, how much do the Americans reckoned US GDP will be contracted by?
In 2020 it is estimate approx. USD1. 6 trillion.
Boeing has to postpone most of its deliveries in 2021 due to cancellation, etc

 

[zhxy]

Sustainable growth is much more important
No need to compare with others.

 

[Dungeness]

Just add "imputed rent" in China's GDP calculation, and China's GDP will be on par with that of US instantly, without even breaking a sweat.

 

[AUz]

China has the same patents per capita as Switzerland and Canada. US is below.

Productivity is on China's side.

World Intellectual Property Indicators - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Lol, US dwarfs China in productivity. China might never catch up to US in productivity even in 2070. Google "GDP per worker per hour worked by country" and come back to talk about "productivity" then

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Lol, US dwarfs China in productivity. China might never catch up to US in productivity even in 2070. Google "GDP per worker per hour worked by country" and come back to talk about "productivity" then

mostly due to imputed rent and overpriced medical services, lawyers, etc. A country that imports everything, has no patents, etc. but is filled with 100k USD lawyers suing each other has very high GDP per worker per hour. GDP per worker per hour worked is a terrible measure that's ez pz to manipulate.

in what matters and is not subject to interpretation - patents and industrial production - the numbers are clear.

 

[AUz]

mostly due to imputed rent and overpriced medical services, lawyers, etc. A country that imports everything, has no patents, etc. but is filled with 100k USD lawyers suing each other has very high GDP per worker per hour. GDP per worker per hour worked is a terrible measure that's ez pz to manipulate.

in what matters and is not subject to interpretation - patents and industrial production - the numbers are clear.

Industrial production in China isn't because Chinese are special or something. Its bc American companies wanted cheap labor and built up their industrial base outside of US (mainly China).

And productivity measures do take price differentials into account...so its not just just lawyers making $100k in NY driving up US lead in productivity per hour worked.

I do agree with you on another level though. US definitely needs more industrial production at home with more jobs for Americans instead of outsourcing everything abroad just to maximize profits of large corporations. 6 American tech companies are worth like $9 trillion lol

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Industrial production in China isn't because Chinese are special or something. Its bc American companies wanted cheap labor and built up their industrial base outside of US (mainly China).

And productivity measures do take price differentials into account...so its not just just lawyers making $100k in NY driving up US lead in productivity per hour worked.

I do agree with you on another level though. US definitely needs more industrial production at home with more jobs for Americans instead of outsourcing everything abroad just to maximize profits of large corporations. 6 American tech companies are worth like $9 trillion lol

US companies didn't build much in China for export. They mostly use Chinese companies as suppliers i.e. Foxconn, Luxshare and BOE for Apple; Apple didn't build the factories nor does it own the production facilities. The fully foreign invested companies in China tend to be selling to the Chinese market like GM, Tesla, Intel Dalian, etc. Intel Dalian isn't selling Intel chips from China to the US after all. Through building up Chinese suppliers, they enable low cost Chinese businesses using those same suppliers to rise.

It's an important distinction, since being a supplier means that the management and strategic business development experience goes to Chinese, not to foreigners. It also means that even if business from a US company is lost, there's the potential for a Chinese company to become a new customer; if it was a wholy owned subsidiary, then the plant just gets shut down. It also means that the US doesn't take on any of the risk associated with investing in industrial assets. Win for Chinese business, win for US business.

 

[KurtisBrian]

US culture changes as it assimilates new peoples. Yes, it will not be the same America it is today, but if it can reconcile to accept the newcomers it will endure, at least for the foreseeable future.

As long as the US can grow (economically) out of this crisis and raise the standard of living of the majority, especially the whites, it will placate most of the disenchanted people.

The US is a nation, but a Federal republic, with each state having somewhat different state laws to reflect the different local cultures. Even cities have different local laws to accommodate local mores. This is one reason the nation will survive.

People in the United States are already divided into several camps that hate each other. There is NO US in the United States so it makes no sense that it should continue as an US. Owner of Merica will decide what happens in Merica.

 

[Cheehg]

China doesn't need match USA level GDP per capita to enjoy good life. It needs only 20k USD per capita. Industrial countries have lower GDP per capita but have better quality life for majority people. Japan, Korea and Germany have only 2/3 of USA level but those countries have better quality life. USA has too much GDP from financial and service industries.
China has 4-5 times of population of USA. It is very normal to pass USA. USA should never be worried too much about it.

 

[FuturePAF]

People in the United States are already divided into several camps that hate each other. There is NO US in the United States so it makes no sense that it should continue as an US. Owner of Merica will decide what happens in Merica.

A blessing in America, in a way, is the short memories of people as long as they feel their lives are improving and they feel listened to/accommodated, memories of the virus will fade to a considerable amount in 3-5 years. People will want to move on with their lives. Heck, in New York people will forget in 6 months.

The current plan: Biden will raise taxes on the rich by reversing the tax cuts. He will carry out deficit spending to build infrastructure ($2-4 Trillion dollars worth over 5-10 years) during this economic decline (a lesson learned from China’s experience after the 2008 recession) to employ tens of millions directly and indirectly. Finally he will raise social services/entitlements to raise the standard of living of everyone but especially poor people.

He will also go easy on the right wing radicals in hopes of placating them, in hopes of moving back front he far right to center right; economic issues.

The catch is the national debt will go up and this problem will be pushed back for 10,20,30 years. If America can grow out of the problem, it will manage the debt, if not....then we have to face all the problems at once. But for now, the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world and will fight toe and nail to maintain control over the global financial system.

 

[tower9]

in an era of climate change it is a liability

China is a continental sized country with a far lower population density than Japan

A blessing in America, in a way, is the short memories of people as long as they feel their lives are improving and they feel listened to/accommodated. Biden will raise taxes on the rich, do deficit spending to build infrastructure during this economic decline (a lesson learned from China’s experience after the 2008 recession) and raise social services. He will also go easy on the right wing radicals in hopes of placating them, in hopes of moving back front he far right to center right; economic issues.

The catch is the national debt will go up and this problem will be pushed back for 10,20,30 years. If America can grow out of the problem, it will manage the debt, if not....then we have to face all the problems at once. But for now, the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world and will fight toe and nail to maintain control over the global financial system.

But he isn’t going easy on the right wing. Conservatives are being de-platformed, marginalized and ostracized. Many now consider democracy a joke and recognize that we live in a pseudo authoritarian state dominated by the deep state and big tech.

also guess which country helped to bail out the US in 2008? Yeah, China. Not this time around. The problem with the US ruling class is that they are full of hubris and greed yet they have zero self awareness and believe their own ideological propaganda like religious zealots.

People in the United States are already divided into several camps that hate each other. There is NO US in the United States so it makes no sense that it should continue as an US. Owner of Merica will decide what happens in Merica.

I’ve never seen this country so divided. Traveling through different areas is like going through different cultures and value systems. A lot of tension and distrust in the air.

 

[KurtisBrian]

A blessing in America, in a way, is the short memories of people as long as they feel their lives are improving and they feel listened to/accommodated. Biden will raise taxes on the rich, do deficit spending to build infrastructure during this economic decline (a lesson learned from China’s experience after the 2008 recession) and raise social services. He will also go easy on the right wing radicals in hopes of placating them, in hopes of moving back front he far right to center right; economic issues.

The catch is the national debt will go up and this problem will be pushed back for 10,20,30 years. If America can grow out of the problem, it will manage the debt, if not....then we have to face all the problems at once. But for now, the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world and will fight toe and nail to maintain control over the global financial system.

We'll see what happens. Since 2006 much of the developing world has been advancing by leaps and bounds while the US and UK have flopped around like chickens with their heads cut off. You seem to think that the world will change back for no reason and the US and UK will start to improve. Maybe you are correct but obviously I don't think you are.

 

[FuturePAF]

We'll see what happens. Since 2006 much of the developing world has been advancing by leaps and bounds while the US and UK have flopped around like chickens with their heads cut off. You seem to think that the world will change back for no reason and the US and UK will start to improve. Maybe you are correct but obviously I don't think you are.

It’s not for no reason; I think there is still a lot of potential in America due to the lopsided tax system that rewards the rich rather then funds the needs of the middle class and working class, as well as the potential for infrastructure renewal projects and jobs training programs to increase productivity and efficiency.

Let’s wait and see. I hope I’m right.

btw, where are you from. It says your Canadian but ...your views seem to be either very pessimistic (québécois ?) or seem to indicate an immigrant perspective (better to go back to the old country where there are more opportunities) or ... are you just a wu-mao/troll, just here to spread pessimism? The two first names in your username suggest possibly Indian or Chinese.

 

[tower9]

We'll see what happens. Since 2006 much of the developing world has been advancing by leaps and bounds while the US and UK have flopped around like chickens with their heads cut off. You seem to think that the world will change back for no reason and the US and UK will start to improve. Maybe you are correct but obviously I don't think you are.

A lot of people here have little perspective about how the world is changing. They will point to specific barometers and say “look y’all, we’re doing great!”

Truth is that there is a lot of discontent simmering below the surface. Trump, like him or hate him, was a manifestation of that and I think the most consequential product of his presidency was exposing the farce of the matrix we live in.