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China's economy grows by 6.9% in 2017

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China's economy grows by 6.9% in 2017
  • 2 hours ago

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China's economy grew by 6.9% in 2017 according to official data - the first time in seven years the pace of growth has picked up.

The figure beats Beijing's official annual expansion target of about 6.5%.

China is a key driver of the global economy and so the better-than-expected data is likely to cheer investors around the world.

But many China watchers believe the GDP numbers are much weaker than the official figures suggest.

This month alone, the governments of Inner Mongolia and of the large industrial city of Tianjin have admitted their economic numbers for 2016 were overstated.

Taking the figures at face value, the 2017 growth rate is China's highest in two years. And it represents the first time the economy has expanded faster than the previous year since 2010.

However as Beijing ramps up efforts to reduce risky debt and to increase air quality, analysts said this may impact 2018 growth.

The numbers released on Thursday also showed that in the last three months of 2017, the economy grew at an annual rate of 6.8% - slightly higher than analysts had been expecting.

Analysis
Robin Brant, BBC China Correspondent, Shanghai

Two things stand out.

First, it looks like stronger exports - as the world economy picked up - and the final sputter of (another) government infrastructure investment spurt helped make 2017 better than expected.

But that's the model China is trying - gently - to get away from.

Second, is it true?

China's figures can be so stable, so in line with government targets, that it's hard to really believe them.

In the run up to these figures being published there's also been an unusual spate of honesty from several provincial governments, who've admitted faking their GDP or fiscal figures. All of which fed into the national picture.

China's debt has risen significantly in recent years, with worrying numbers around local government loans, corporate and household debt and non-performing bank loans.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said recently that the country's debt had ballooned and was now equivalent to 234% of the total output. It said Beijing needed to concentrate less on growth and instead help improve banks' finances, among other efforts.

Beijing meanwhile says it has been taking steps to contain risky debt despite the impact that might have on economic growth - efforts the IMF said it recognised.

The government has promised to continue tackling local government debt, among other efforts, and on Thursday vowed to help state-owned enterprises "leverage and cut debt ... and to repay their bonds on time this year".

_99644673_chinagrowth-nc.png

Blue skies v economic growth
China's strict anti-pollution measures, which were introduced across 28 cities last year, are also expected to hurt economic growth in the short term.

The measures have included shutting down or cutting back production at factories in heavy industry like cement and steel.

Households have also been asked to switch to natural gas and electricity from coal, in an effort to curb pollution.

However this policy left millions without proper heating, and so was temporarily abandoned in December.

Chinese officials have said Beijing's air quality improved sharply in the winter of 2017 and heralded their efforts as a "new reality" for the country.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42727781
 
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The estimated nominal GDP by Bloomberg was US$12.9T in 2017 while it was US$11.2T in 2016. So, the likelihood of crossing US$14T is rather strong this year(2018). The Chinese government is perhaps shunning away from the sensational headlines by not publishing the nominal GDP.
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China Posts First Full-Year Growth Pickup Since 2010
Bloomberg News
January 18, 2018, 2:02 AM EST Updated on January 18, 2018, 3:47 AM EST
  • Economy ‘breezing past potential speed bumps’: HSBC’s Neumann
  • Global trade supporting demand as Beijing tackles debt risks
China’s economy sealed its first full-year acceleration since 2010, underpinning global growth and giving authorities more room to purge excessive borrowing.

  • Gross domestic product increased 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, versus 6.7 percent seen in Bloomberg survey
  • Full-year growth picked up to 6.9 percent from 6.7 percent in 2016
global upswing that’s boosting exports are providing room for President Xi Jinping to tackle debt risks, one of Beijing’s top goals for the coming three years. With consumer inflation still contained and the currency firm, the central bank has been able to tighten the screws in some areas without benchmark interest rate increases, though a minority of economists are beginning to anticipate such a move.




China's Economy Expanded 6.9% in 2017
"The economy is cruising along at impressive speed, breezing past potential speed bumps with apparent ease," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "If China keeps up its current speed, the next stop will be inflation. Some cooling of growth momentum at the start of 2018 would thus be welcome to curtail price pressures."

What Our Economists Say...
"Turnaround is too strong a word," said Tom Orlik, Bloomberg chief Asia economist in Beijing. "There’s still a mountain of debt and major structural challenges to address. But compared to hard-landing fears in early 2016, and expectations of a pronounced slowdown at the start of the year, China’s economy outperformed in 2017."
In a year that began with fears of a trade war with a newly elected Donald Trump, exports turned back into a growth engine for the world’s factory floor. The contribution of net external trade to growth improved by around 0.4 percentage point in real terms last year, “more than fully explaining the pick-up” in GDP growth, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.

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Reflation was also key to boosting company profits and raising their ability to service debt. The GDP deflator for the full year, a gauge of economy-wide inflation, came in at 4.33 percentage points, while nominal growth accelerated to 11.2 percent. GDP in those terms grew to 82.7 trillion yuan ($12.9 trillion) -- up 8.4 trillion yuan in the year.

"Another Indonesia created in one year!" said Jim O’Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. "The nominal GDP size confirms China has diminished the previous deflation risk and silly comparisons with 1980s Japan were just that, silly."

The remarkable stability of headline GDP is, however, also "a source of disquiet," said Bloomberg’s Orlik, raising questions about politicization of the figures. Recent revelations of fudged provincial data have provided reminders of the problem, while officials’ willingness to air the concerns shows an intent to stamp out the practice.

If there was one black spot in Thursday’s data, it was a deceleration in retail spending at the end of the year.

  • Retail sales rose 9.4% in December on year, vs 10.2% forecast
  • Industrial production rose 6.2% last month, versus a projected 6.1%
  • Fixed-asset investment climbed 7.2% for the year, the least since 1999
In housing, data released Thursday showed prices rose in the most cities in six months even as the government prolonged its campaign to curb speculation. New-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, in December rose in 57 of 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 50 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

China added over 13 million new jobs in 2017, NBS head Ning Jizhe said at a briefing in Beijing. The surveyed unemployment rate was 4.98 percent at the end of December.

Based on Bloomberg Economics’ initial estimate, the debt-to-GDP ratio edged up to 264 percent from 259 percent in 2016 – a markedly slower pace of increase.

"With growth being strong, the government may feel comfortable to focus more on reducing major risks including financial sector risks," said Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Group AG in Hong Kong. "We expect 2018 GDP growth to moderate."

— With assistance by Miao Han, Kevin Hamlin, Tian Chen, Yinan Zhao, and Jeff Kearns

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ull-year-pickup-since-2010-on-global-tailwind
 
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The estimated nominal GDP by Bloomberg was US$12.9T in 2017 while it was US$11.2T in 2016. So, the likelihood of crossing US$14T is rather strong this year(2018). The Chinese government is perhaps shunning away from the sensational headlines by not publishing the nominal GDP.

So China just added more than a half of India's economy into its GDP in 2017, it should spend more on road building along China/India borders. :lol:
 
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Half a Supa Powa economy!
more like two thirds(2/3) add-up of SP12 every year.

So China just added more than a half of India's economy into its GDP in 2017, it should spend more on road building along China/India borders. :lol:
Building the roads along the borders is like peanuts contributing to our GDP given its enormous base. The real pain to SP12 is the rail network in our Tibet.
川藏铁路今年动工
滇藏铁路--未来
新藏铁路--未来
 
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China's economy could hit its sweet spot in 2018

2018-01-19 08:47 Xinhua Editor: Wang Fan

As China looks to high quality growth over high speed expansion, its performance in 2017 was surprisingly a combination of both.

The pace of growth in China's economy increased in 2017, which is the first time for this to happen since 2011, to 6.9 percent annually, a slight rebound from a 26-year low of 6.7 percent in 2016.

As China's chief statistician Ning Jizhe has put it, the economy has maintained stable and sound development and exceeded expectations.

Growth is partly credited to cyclical factors and an improved global economy, but observers should not overlook deeper factors shaping the good shape of the economy, which is in the midst of an extraordinary structural transformation.

The old economy -- heavy industries and property sectors are slowing. The new economy -- services and part of the manufacturing sector such as high tech are gaining strength.

Analysts believe the Chinese economy is going through a phase of "creative destruction" as lively new sectors coexist with still-dominant old sectors.

Although the new economy is not yet strong enough to overwhelm the old economy, the transition is structurally positive.

The world's second largest economy still has to tame debt risks and factory pollution, but strong growth gives the government the room it needs to tackle such issues.

Global financial agencies can see the sweet spot in China's economy. The International Monetary Fund revised up its forecast of China's economy four times in 2017. The Asian Development Bank also revised up China's growth prospects as household spending held steady.

Heading into 2018, monetary policy in the United States and geopolitical risks pose uncertainties to the global economy, from which China's economy will not be excluded.

China has held firm that it will target high quality growth over high speed growth for structural reasons. Given the size and importance of the Chinese economy, this is welcome news for China and the world. China is confident that the sweet spot in its economy could last beyond 2018.

Read more:

China's economy accelerates for 1st time in 7 years

China's economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2017, picking up pace for the first time in seven years.

GDP totaled 82.7 trillion yuan (about 13 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2017, up from around 41.3 trillion yuan in 2010, when China first overtook Japan.

But it's not only the speed or quantity of growth that may make China a sustained engine for global economic growth. With policymakers reiterating the importance of "high quality growth," China's economy is entering a new era.

China's national economic data veracity unaffected by regional statistics: official

The credibility of China's national economic data will not be threatened by statistics calculated at regional level, an official said Thursday.

"The data quality has been improved, both at national and regional levels," said Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in response to data fabrication reported in Tianjin and some other regions.

http://www.ecns.cn/business/2018/01-18/289022.shtml
 
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I am eagerly waiting for an article (or better yet, a book) by Mr. Gordon Chang to put China in its regular place in Western mind so that it would go back to its regular state of an easy and peaceful mind.

China still needs that strategic soft (and happy) spot in the Western mind to grow silently, without making any waves and headlines, and without dramatically increasing its soft power or image.

Hopefully this kind of articles will quickly be submerged into oblivion by a new wave of China collapse theorizing.

If they are too scared, the West will go even more neo-fascist.
 
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We add an India every 2 years. Hmmm....something to ponder about here. :cool:
A comparison from the industry value added is even more stunning.

China's industry value added 2016 was CNY 24.786 trillion; the 2017 result is 27.9997 trillion. I.e. the net increase is CNY 3.2 trillion, or USD 492 billion.

SP2012's industry value added 2016 was $ 588 billion. I.e. China's net increase a year equals to 84% of SP2012's total industry scale; or it takes China 1year+2month, to add the scale of the India's industry value added.
Y2016.jpg
Y2017.jpg


India VA.jpg
 
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I am sure the GDP growth is much higher than 6.9%. They just wanna down play it because of certain countries.
 
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New sectors accelerate China's industrial growth in 2017

2018-01-19 08:30 Xinhua Editor: Wang Fan

China's industrial output expanded 6.6 percent in 2017, accelerating from 6 percent growth in 2016, official data showed Thursday.

The strong performance was largely attributed to the sharp growth of new manufacturing sectors such as industrial robots, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

New-energy vehicles, industrial robots, solar power and integrated circuit outshone most other industries in terms of output in 2017, growing 51.1 percent, 68.1 percent, 38 percent and 18.2 percent, respectively, year on year.

On the other hand, mining and cement sectors saw their output decline 1.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, while the textile and coal industries grew only 4 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Industrial output, officially called industrial value added, is used to measure the activity of designated large enterprises with annual turnover of at least 20 million yuan (about 3.1 million U.S. dollars).

Ownership analysis showed that industrial output of state-holding enterprises was up 6.5 percent, while industrial output of enterprises funded by overseas investors increased 6.9 percent.

Amid the drive to restructure and optimize industry, the country aims to reduce overcapacity in traditional sectors such as coal, iron and steel while facilitating growth in emerging areas.

The industrial output figures were released by the NBS along with a slew of other major economic indicators for 2017.

China's GDP grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in 2017, well above the official target of around 6.5 percent and higher than the 6.7 percent growth registered in 2016.

This also marked the first acceleration in annual GDP growth pace since 2010.

http://www.ecns.cn/business/2018/01-18/289019.shtml
 
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I am eagerly waiting for an article (or better yet, a book) by Mr. Gordon Chang to put China in its regular place in Western mind so that it would go back to its regular state of an easy and peaceful mind.

China still needs that strategic soft (and happy) spot in the Western mind to grow silently, without making any waves and headlines, and without dramatically increasing its soft power or image.

Hopefully this kind of articles will quickly be submerged into oblivion by a new wave of China collapse theorizing.

If they are too scared, the West will go even more neo-fascist.
Gordon Chang need to write more China collapsing articles in 2018
 
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