China Versus India, A Great Asian Race.
Written by: Vipul Dave Date : December 19, 2018
It is China versus India, who will surge ahead by 2050 is a hot discussion topic between academia, intelligentsia and debaters across the world. Currently China is second largest economy of the world after US and India is sixth largest in Nominal Term. In purchase power parity, China is on top and India is next to US who is second largest economy of the world. Almost all research and rating agencies agree that in next 3 decades, either China or India shall be on top followed by other. Both the countries have pulled record numbers of people out of poverty line in last one and half decades and now both the countries are dealing with post poverty issues such as providing medical facilities, Housing etc. Now in light of this facts, it is very important to analyze the future of Chinese and Indian growth and their potential as economic and military giants.
Brief historic Back ground:
India and china had been number one and number two economy for eighteen centuries out of last two millennium. However last two centuries turned out to be worst for both the countries. Both the countries who used to produce minimum thirty to sixty percentage of world’s GDP became very poor for various reasons whose discussion here is out of context. After almost 2 centuries of economic down fall, both the countries shown a turnaround in later half of 20th century.
The china was led by communist party totalitarian regime with power rested in few hands. On other hand India choose democracy on her independence and started preparing for economic development of the country which was left in civil war after full economic exploitation by Britishers .
Early days of Economic Development.
Under Maot-tse Tung’s leadership, in early sixties, foundation of Chinese economic development was laid down. Since, it was a totalitarian, regime, Chinese economic development model and policies were brutal and oppressive. The economic model of china was founded on many wrong principles. Even Mao gave a unique theory of four pest campaign in which he held insects and birds responsible for eating up human beings’ food and ask people to kill them. This led to a huge ecological disaster leading to death of 20 million people. However, irrespective of ways and implementation, this was aimed at economic well-being of China as a nation. Many mistakes were made but that was a learning curve for china.
On the other hand, in leadership of Nehru, India sketched its economic development plan by the way of 5 year plan and defined an economic development model. Initial challenge was to bring country out of hunger poverty as country was not able to produce enough food grain for its massive population. Country was dependent on aid of food grain from the country like US. Who used to give India its substandard wheat on hard terms. It was aimed to make country self-sufficient in food grain and other basic stuffs to achieve 5% economic growth rate. However till many such 5 year plans, targeted growth rate could not be achieved.
Both the countries kept on experimenting different models till eighties in hope of finding targeted growth rate and other economic objectives till they got it right in Eighties.
Finding right target of economic growth:
After too much experimenting, China got is right in early eighties when Chinese growth rate started soaring at 9% plus growth rate. The driver of growth rate was a very brutal iron hand administration of ruling Communist party who made people work very hard with very low wages and no other facility or and concern for human right. This made Chinese manufacturing very cheap. Very pragmatic export policy coupled with very low cost manufacturing made china the factory of world in next 2 decades. China kept growing at an average 9% compound growth rate for almost 3 decades which made china second largest economy in next 3 decades with a lots of prosperity. As china’s economic strength increased, it started converting it into High end goods and into military muscles. Chinese ruling party enjoyed a total power with no challenge from within gave it a free hand to develop world class infrastructure at a minimal cost as government take away any land as and when required. China build a huge infrastructure as well out of its growing economy.
Indian Economic planning for decades remained influenced by Russian communist model resulting in nothing substantial or noteworthy on economic front. On the other hand, India got it right after its economy went into chaos after V P Singh rule. Chandra shekhar followed him as PM and stabilize economy. Narsimha rao, followed Chandra shekhar and bring real change. He made Man Mohan sing finance minister who implemented the economic growth plan drawn by Dr Subramanian Swamy in Chandra shekhar government. India strike high growth in excess of 6% but it was not as consistent as china. It was a flip flop of high growth rate of 6 to 7% for some year getting down to 3 to 4% in next few years till Vajpayee came and stabilize it in 2003. India grew at a rate higher than 7% since than which is remarkable though not as high as china’s. Currently India is growing at a rate faster than china but not a great deal. In these years of economic development, India grew as a giant in many area and remarkable of them are Pharmaceuticals. Like china is a factory of world, India is known as the Pharmacy of the world. India took almost couple of decades more to strike the consistent high growth rate compared to china which allowed china to surpass India by a great deal. However, in wake of current economic development, it is believed that India will narrow the gap in time to come and may catch up china by 2050. However, the main issue with India is its changing government and political instability and role of immature political parties. If India gets stable government for couple of more decades, India can grow rapidly like china did in 3 decades starting from early eighties.
Basic Difference in Growth patterns:
As china enjoys one party rule, India is a democracy with parliamentarian democracy. Chinese government at present is at a great advantage enjoys a huge money power and total administrative control to carry out whatever development they want. China, in pursuance of high growth has made many infrastructure which is not demand driven. China has built many ghost cities where nobody lives. All this shows that china has eliminated all hurdles and constrains which may hinder development.
On the other hand, India faces many problems. Prime minister of India must have a majority support all the times makes him vulnerable to numbers. When Chinese government do not face any hurdle in development of land acquisition, Indian government has to face many hurdles in land acquisition even for Infrastructure projects. Provocation of opposition parties makes the things worse.
Different states have different laws and there is a lots of liberty to farmers to go to court and gat a stay to stop the work. Inspite of so many limitations, Indian government has done a commendable job by boosting infrastructure at a rapid pace. Highways are buit at the rate of over 30 KM per day. Freight railway corridor is also built very fast. Present government is successful in making many stalled projects operational. Indian government is not as rich as Chinese government so it is building many project in public private partnership. Current government has mobilize many huge projects such as Bharat Mala, Sagar mala etc which shall transform India’s infrastructure totally.
Challenges, opportunities and Future:
China on one hand enjoys a massive money power and total control and stability of government, she has some vulnerabilities as well. Because of rise in economic development and people having money in their accounts, china is no more a cheapest producer of consumer goods any more. Their production is shifting to many other countries and India is on the top. China is moving to high end and high goods but china has to face many technologically advanced countries like US, Russia, Germany and Europe. When on one hand ability of produce stuff on large scale is china’s advantage, their inability to innovate and research is a major negative point of china. China is going to face a serious manpower problem because of One child policy followed for so many years. Chinese demography has changed. Chinese population has grown old. China shall face a serious issue of manpower shortage in years to come which will seriously impact the productivity of China.
Other issue which china going to face is the scarcity of skilled manpower like many other countries. One study has reveal that by 2030, all the countries in the world face the scarcity of skilled manpower they required. India shall be the only exception with 200 million surplus skilled manpower.
India is progressing very well but India has so many vulnerabilities. The main issue with India is its political vulnerability and corrupt politicians. Many political parties are run by families. It has become a business. They are unable to deliver on the progress front so they provoke people and creates cast divide. What will be the future of India shall be decided by how India is able to control these elements in time to come.
On the other end, India is on the verge of becoming a great miracle of mankind has ever seen. Huge population has come out of poverty. India’s education Institutions have turned out to be the best anywhere, IITans and other Indian students are sitting on the top of many multinational corporations. India’s medical tourism is also flourishing. Top medical treatment is available at fraction of cost in western countries and China. Bollywood is becoming more and more popular and spreads soft power of India across the world. Yoga has gained a huge popularity and interest across the world and it is enlightening the people. Old traditional knowledge has come to the rescue of modern man facing modern problems. India is fast becoming the knowledge hub of the world. India shall be the only country having surplus skilled manpower in the world by the next decade of the world. There are so many schools teaches students with different philosophies with the unique blend of modern and traditional education. India is developing in a unique way. India has an unique demography
Rise of china uniform. It is like a tall building build on standard RCC frame meeting established standards. While the rise of India is like a beautiful temples carved with beautiful sculptures with a lots of artistic imaginations. , which you cannot put in established criterion of evaluation. India with so much of diversity is a world in itself with multi ethnic, multi-linguistic, multi-cultural society defeating all definition of the nation build on the sameness. India is bound in a unique thread of Indianness.
China
India
Conclusion: India vs China is basically the test of two ideologies. China followed a centralized Totalitarian model believing that such a vast country cannot be kept to gather and made progressive with democracy and different people pulling in different direction. On other hand India put her faith in democracy and choose a highly liberal model and an all-inclusive constitution. China took a path of brutality and India kept its faith of democracy and liberalism. China adopted reverse engineering and India invested in Research. China focused on production and India focused on education and making human being able on the principles of equality and empowering of lower most class to uplift it at par with others.
China has progressed a lot but experts believe that this is the peak of China’s development. China cannot grow more with current development model. On the other hand, India is left a decade and half behind but is the has laid a very strong foundation of democracy. India’s strength is its highly aspiring young people. World cannot think of growing or doing research without high educated, smart Indians. This is evident from Silicon-valley to NASA, many multinational corporations, education institutes and media.
In my conclusion, world will not see a much different china in next few decades to come but world will see a totally different India fully flourished spreading enlightenment and peace, contributing to world order and happiness, providing leadership in many areas across the world to make it a better place. India shall be a role model for many countries to follow and Indian culture shall once again influence whole humanity.
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