China: transformation into invincibility or weakling

[Martian2]

China can transform Outer Mongolia into Western Europe

The United States has recently imposed steep tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines, which target Chinese exports.

How does China reduce its dependence on the United States as an export market?

The long-term solution is for China to reclaim Outer Mongolia and transform it into a new Western Europe.

After World War II, the United States implemented its Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe. After 40 years (1945-1985), Western Europe became an important market for US exports.

China can accomplish a similar feat in Outer Mongolia.
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Geographically, Outer Mongolia is about the same size as Western Europe. You can see the size comparison of Texas to Western Europe in the map below.

Mongolia is 1,564,116 km² in land area. Texas is 695,662 km². Outer Mongolia is 2.25 times LARGER than Texas.

China has plenty of money to fund a Marshall-style Plan for Outer Mongolia. China has plenty of technology to build Outer Mongolia into a new giant Shenzhen.

There are only two things missing. Firstly, China has to move its army into Outer Mongolia to officially reclaim it (which the Russians did with Crimea). Secondly, Outer Mongolia needs new Han residents. To achieve a population of 300 million to replace the US market, China would have to offer financial incentives to new Han settlers. Bonuses will have to be paid for three children per Han couple in Outer Mongolia.

Outer Mongolia is an investment project. It will drive China's economy for decades as new infrastructure is built throughout Outer Mongolia (which is the size of FOUR Californias).

After 40-60 years, Outer Mongolia will be populated with about 300 million new Han Chinese consumers. Mainland China can "export" its goods to Outer Mongolia. This will lessen China's dependence on exports to the US market.

Currently, China is a status quo power. However, if the US starts a South China Sea war then there is a strong possibility that China will immediately reclaim Outer Mongolia. After all, there is nothing to lose. Once the shooting starts, China has already lost its export market in the United States. Logic suggests China should immediately proceed with the construction of an export market in Outer Mongolia to replace the United States.

 

[Unknown-V]

The long-term solution is for China to reclaim Outer Mongolia and transform it into a new Western Europe.

Not sure if Russia would happy about that. And although Mongolia was a part or Qing Empire, they never refer themselves as Hua (華) so do Manchu.

IMHO, it's better to annex North Korea, Okinawa/Ryukyu and (of course) Taiwan. You know in the past Korean and Ryukyuan refered themselves as little Chinese (小中華). Maybe China should grant them S.A.R status like HK/Macau. And then US Empire would stay away from Chinese Mainland.

 

[Martian2]

Not sure if Russia would happy about that. And although Mongolia was a part or Qing Empire, they never refer themselves as Hua (華) so do Manchu.

IMHO, it's better to annex North Korea, Okinawa/Ryukyu and (of course) Taiwan. You know in the past Korean and Ryukyuan refered themselves as little Chinese (小中華). Maybe China should grant them S.A.R status like HK/Macau. And then US Empire would stay away from Chinese Mainland.

That is Russia's problem, not China's.

The strategic goal is to make China invincible.

The goal is not to make Russians happy.

What are the Russians going to do? Not sell oil to China? The West has years-long sanctions on Russia.

China is building numerous nuclear power plants, wind turbine farms, and solar farms. China is moving away from a hydrocarbon-based economy.

China has plenty of oil suppliers in Kazakhstan, United States, Saudi Arabia, Angola, etc.

China can turn to coal-to-liquid (CTL) plants to supply synthetic oil at $55 per barrel. This will raise greenhouse gas emissions, but it is well worth recovering Mongolia (equivalent to four Californias in land area) that has 173 BILLION TONNES of coal reserves.
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Mongolia may export 30 Mt of coal in 2017 | SX Coal (April 10, 2017)

"As the 15th largest coal producer in the world, Mongolia is estimated to have 173.3 billion tonnes of coal resources. As of January 1, 2017 there are 49 mines in operation in Mongolia, including 29 coking coal mines and 20 thermal coal mines."

 

[Martian2]

By reclaiming Mongolia, China will be on steroids

Mongolia is the most important geopolitical issue of the 21st century.
If China reclaims Mongolia then China will be on steroids permanently.
Mongolia is extremely beneficial to China in the following ways.

Food Security: Mongolia is equivalent to 4 Californias in land area. Only 1% of Mongolia is useless. With the addition of 90% arable land in Mongolia, China will have obtained food independence.

Energy Security: Mongolia has one million tonnes of uranium reserves. The uranium can fuel China's nuclear power reactors.

Mongolia has 173 billion tonnes of coal reserves. The coal can power China's supercritical coal plants. Also, the coal can be converted into oil in China's coal-to-liquid (CTL) plants.

Military Security: Mongolia's one million tonnes of uranium reserves can build countless Chinese thermonuclear warheads. Northern Mongolia has a mountain range. China can build a new Underground Great Wall for its DF-41 10-MIRV ICBMs in Mongolia.

Strategic Depth: Mongolia is located far from the coast. The secure inland Mongolian real estate provides a safe refuge for a duplicate or triplicate Chinese J-20 manufacturing plant and missile factories.

Economic Security: Mongolia has plenty of living space to raise 300 million new Han residents. Mongolia has the potential to become the world's third largest economy. Mongolia could become a very important "export" market for China in about 50 years.

For the next 50 years, Chinese companies will be busy building new infrastructure throughout Mongolia. This will provide plenty of jobs and profits for Chinese companies.

Soldiers: By establishing a new 300 million population in Mongolia, China can enlist plenty of new soldiers to fight in wars.

Geniuses: The genes for intelligence are not currently fully understood. However, we know that geniuses arise as a percentage of a large population. By establishing a new population of 300 million Hans in Mongolia, China is guaranteed to harvest a new group of geniuses from Mongolia. Geniuses push back the technological frontier. Mongolia can help China advance its military and civilian technologies.

So, how does China go about reaping these fantastic benefits from reclaiming Mongolia? The most obvious route is to claim self-defense. With a US attack in the South China Sea, China says I don't have enough food or energy to survive. Thus, I have to reclaim Mongolia. The Americans made me do it.

The PROBLEM is that the United States looks like it is backing away from a South China Sea confrontation.

Back during the Obama Administration, the probability of a South China Sea war was about 50%.

Currently, I think the probability of a South China Sea war is about 5%.

The United States waited years until China reclaimed and MILITARIZED 3,200 acres of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

The United States also waited until China mass produced and commissioned the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter.

The United States further waited until China will officially deploy its DF-41 10-MIRV ICBMs this year. Four brigades of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs have already been "unofficially" deployed throughout China. There are videos or pictures of Chinese DF-41 ICBMs in northeast China, Tibet, and in other provinces.

By waiting too long until China was fully prepared to fight a South China Sea war, the United States is signalling that a South China Sea war is not on the agenda.
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Good news and Bad news

The good news is China has effective military control of the South China Sea. This is a somewhat anti-climactic victory, because China was always bound to have military control of the South China Sea. It was either today or 10 years from now. Nothing can stop China from exerting control over the South China Sea, which is adjacent to China's continental-size landmass.

So...let's get to the bad news.

Without invoking self-defense, it is difficult to see how China can reclaim Mongolia without disrupting China's currently favorable economic relationships.

Mongolia has uranium. The South China Sea does not.

China can build new cities, industries, arms manufacturing plants, and raise new geniuses in Mongolia. None of that is possible in the South China Sea.

China can build a new high-speed rail network in Mongolia. By adding four Californias of travel space, China's high-speed railway network would be more spectacular. The South China Sea is not conducive to railway construction.

The United States says China doesn't need to worry about Energy Security. We'll sell American oil and gas to you.
The United States says China doesn't need to worry about Food Security. We'll sell American food to you.
The United States says China doesn't need strategic depth, because there will be no Sino-American war.

Without reclaiming Mongolia, China is still a superpower. However, China could have been INVINCIBLE.

 

[Martian2]

China's Zhurihe is the perfect base to reclaim Outer Mongolia

Zhurihe is located in Inner Mongolia. It is very close to the border with Outer Mongolia. By amassing tanks, howitzers, J-20 stealth fighters, and missiles, China can easily reclaim Outer Mongolia.

In August 2017, China held a military parade at Zhurihe. Type 99 main battle tanks, PLZ-05 howitzers, PHL-03 MLRS, J-20 stealth fighters, and DF-31AG five-MIRVed ICBMs were displayed.

Instead of holding a military parade, China can push the entire army into Outer Mongolia instead.
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China's army is showing off its new tanks, stealth fighters, and missiles | Popular Science (August 3, 2017)

"Zhurihe certainly has enough room to hold all the people and equipment for a parade with thousands of soldiers, hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, and dozens of ICBMs."