China thinks it can defeat America in battle

[Khalid Newazi]

Sorry but US can't beat China anywhere near China.

 

[BoQ77]

Sounds interesting but that will only work at a range very near the coastline, it will not help further out and anyway, the helicopter will have to detect the sub first, which is not an easy task..

a P1 Kawasaki or P8A Poseidon is better,

 

[B@KH]

Sorry but US can't beat China anywhere near China.

right. but fighting in its own territory means more damage to self even in case of successful defence as war definitely inflicts damage.

 

[Carlosa]

a P1 Kawasaki or P8A Poseidon is better,

Yes, but its still very difficult for them to detect an advanced sub, noisy subs on the other hand, yes.

Subs often easily pass through the ASW shield of an aircraft carrier group undetected.

 

[Khalid Newazi]

right. but fighting in its own territory means more damage to self even in case of successful defence as war definitely inflicts damage.

Not really, US can't get in a land war with China as none of its top allies share a border with China. India isn't a US ally (much closer to Russia) and know that Chinese retaliation will also hurt them sevearly and thus wouldn't want to involve itself into a US vs China conflict.

Therefore the war will be on the seas and Chinese can make ships and subs at a much cheaper rate.

 

[Carlosa]

Detection of sub is always hard as long as the sub did not do things to reveal itself. And also, the concept pic did show subsea sonar array as well.

Subsea sonar arrays used to be quite effective in the past, but now not so much against the newer, much more silent subs. Its really very hard to detect a good sub these days.

 

[BoQ77]

Yes, but its still very difficult for them to detect an advanced sub, noisy subs on the other hand, yes.

Subs often easily pass through the ASW shield of an aircraft carrier group undetected.

Just like how they search for MH-370

 

[Keel]

China thinks it can defeat America in battle

David Axe

July 7, 2014
China thinks it can defeat America in battle

The bad news first. The People's Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.

Now the good news. China is wrong — and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.

Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world's power structure. If China doesn't make a major military move in the next couple decades, it probably never will.

The U.S. Navy's submarines — the unsung main defenders of the current world order — must hold the line against China for another 20 years. After that, America can declare a sort of quiet victory in the increasingly chilly Cold War with China.

How China wins

The bad news came from Lee Fuell, from the U.S. Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center, during Fuell's testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 30.

For years, Chinese military planning assumed that any attack by the People's Liberation Army on Taiwan or a disputed island would have to begin with a Pearl Harbor-style preemptive missile strike by China against U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. The PLA was so afraid of overwhelming American intervention that it genuinely believed it could not win unless the Americans were removed from the battlefield before the main campaign even began.

A preemptive strike was, needless to say, a highly risky proposition. If it worked, the PLA just might secure enough space and time to defeat defending troops, seize territory, and position itself for a favorable post-war settlement.

But if China failed to disable American forces with a surprise attack, Beijing could find itself fighting a full-scale war on at least two fronts: against the country it was invading plus the full might of U.S. Pacific Command, fully mobilized and probably strongly backed by the rest of the world.

That was then. But after two decades of sustained military modernization, the Chinese military has fundamentally changed its strategy in just the last year or so. According to Fuell, recent writings by PLA officers indicate "a growing confidence within the PLA that they can more-readily withstand U.S. involvement."

The preemptive strike is off the table — and with it, the risk of a full-scale American counterattack. Instead, Beijing believes it can attack Taiwan or another neighbor while also bloodlessly deterring U.S. intervention. It would do so by deploying such overwhelmingly strong military forces — ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, jet fighters, and the like — that Washington dare not get involved.

The knock-on effects of deterring America could be world-changing. "Backing away from our commitments to protect Taiwan, Japan, or the Philippines would be tantamount to ceding East Asia to China's domination," Roger Cliff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said at the same U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on Jan. 30.

Worse, the world's liberal economic order — and indeed, the whole notion of democracy — could suffer irreparable harm. "The United States has both a moral and a material interest in a world in which democratic nations can survive and thrive," Cliff asserted.

Fortunately for that liberal order, America possesses by far the world's most powerful submarine force — one poised to quickly sink any Chinese invasion fleet. In announcing its readiness to hold off the U.S. military, the PLA seems to have ignored Washington's huge undersea advantage.

(Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adam K. Thomas/U.S. Navy via Getty Images)


The Silent Service

It's not surprising that Beijing would overlook America's subs. MostAmericans overlook their own undersea fleet — and that's not entirely their own fault. The U.S. sub force takes pains to avoid media coverage in order to maximize its secrecy and stealth. "The submarine cruises the world's oceans unseen," the Navy stated on its Website.

Unseen and unheard. That why the sub force calls itself the "Silent Service."

The Navy has 74 submarines, 60 of which are attack or missile submarines optimized for finding and sinking other ships or blasting land targets. The balance is ballistic-missile boats that carry nuclear missiles and would not routinely participate in military campaigns short of an atomic World War III.

Thirty-three of the attack and missile boats belong to the Pacific Fleet, with major bases in Washington State, California, Hawaii, and Guam. Deploying for six months or so roughly every year and a half, America's Pacific subs frequently stop over in Japan and South Korea and occasionally even venture under the Arctic ice.

According to Adm. Cecil Haney, the former commander of Pacific Fleet subs, on any given day 17 boats are underway and eight are "forward-deployed," meaning they are on station in a potential combat zone. To the Pacific Fleet, that pretty much means waters near China.

America has several submarine types. The numerous Los Angeles-class attack boats are Cold War stalwarts that are steadily being replaced by newer Virginia-class boats with improved stealth and sensors. The secretiveSeawolfs, numbering just three — all of them in the Pacific — are big, fast, and more heavily armed than other subs. The Ohio-class missile submarines are former ballistic missile boats each packing 154 cruise missile.

U.S. subs are, on average, bigger, faster, quieter, and more powerful than the rest of the world's subs. And there are more of them. The U.K. is building just seven new Astute attack boats. Russia aims to maintainaround 12 modern attack subs. China is struggling to deploy a handful of rudimentary nuclear boats.

Able to lurk silently under the waves and strike suddenly with torpedoes and missiles, submarines have tactical and strategic effect greatly disproportionate to their relatively small numbers. During the 1982 Falklands War, the British sub Conqueror torpedoed and sank theArgentine cruiser General Belgrano, killing 323 men. The sinking kept the rest of the Argentine fleet bottled up for the duration of the conflict.

America's eight-at-a-time submarine picket in or near Chinese waters could be equally destructive to Chinese military plans, especially considering the PLA's limited anti-submarine skills. "Although China might control the surface of the sea around Taiwan, its ability to find and sink U.S. submarines will be extremely limited for the foreseeable future," Cliff testified. "Those submarines would likely be able to intercept and sink Chinese amphibious transports as they transited toward Taiwan."

So it almost doesn't matter that a modernized PLA thinks it possesses the means to fight America above the waves, on land, and in the air. If it can't safely sail an invasion fleet as part of its territorial ambitions, it can't achieve its strategic goals — capturing Taiwan and or some island also claimed by a neighboring country — through overtly military means.

That reality should inform Washington's own strategy. As the United States has already largely achieved the world order it struggled for over the last century, it need only preserve and defend this order. In other words, America has the strategic high ground against China, as the latter mustattack and alter the world in order to get what it wants.

In practical military terms, that means the Pentagon can more or less ignore most of China's military capabilities, including those that appear to threaten traditional U.S. advantages in nukes, air warfare, mechanized ground operations, and surface naval maneuvers.

"We won't invade China, so ground forces don't play," pointed out Wayne Hughes, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. "We won't conduct a first nuclear strike. We should not adopt an air-sea strike plan against the mainland, because that is a sure way to start World War IV."

Rather, America must deny the Chinese free access to their near waters. "We need only enough access to threaten a war at sea," Hughes said. In his view, a fleet optimized for countering China would have large numbers of small surface ships for enforcing a trade blockade. But the main combatants would be submarines, "to threaten destruction of all Chinese warships and commercial vessels in the China Seas."

Cliff estimated that in wartime, each American submarine would be able to get off "a few torpedo shots" before needing to "withdraw for self-preservation." But assuming eight subs each fire three torpedoes, and just half those torpedoes hit, the American attack boats could destroy all of China's major amphibious ships — and with them, Beijing's capacity for invading Taiwan or seizing a disputed island.

Waiting out the Chinese decline

If American subs can hold the line for another 20 years, China might age right out of its current, aggressive posture without ever having attacked anyone. That's because economic and demographic trends in China point towards a rapidly aging population, flattening economic growth, and fewer resources available for military modernization.

To be fair, almost all developed countries are also experiencing this aging, slowing and increasing peacefulness. But China's trends are pronounced owing to a particularly steep drop in the birth rate traceable back to the Chinese Communist Party's one-child policy.

Another factor is the unusual speed with which the Chinese economy has expanded to its true potential, thanks to the focused investment made possible by an authoritarian government… and also thanks to that government's utter disregard for the natural environment and for the rights of everyday Chinese people.

"The economic model that propelled China through three decades of meteoric growth appears unsustainable," Andrew Erickson, a Naval War College analyst, told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

What Erickson described as China's "pent-up national potential" could begin expiring as early as 2030, by which point "China will have world's highest proportion of people over 65," he predicted. "An aging society with rising expectations, burdened with rates of chronic diseases exacerbated by sedentary lifestyles, will probably divert spending from both military development and the economic growth that sustains it."

Wisely, American political and military leaders have made the investments necessary to sustain U.S. undersea power for at least that long. After a worrying dip in submarine production, starting in 2012 the Pentagon asked for — and Congress funded — the acquisition of two Virginia-class submarines per year for around $2.5 billion apiece, a purchase rate adequate to maintain the world's biggest nuclear submarine fleet indefinitely.

The Pentagon is also improving the Virginia design, adding undersea-launched drones, extra missile capacity, and potentially a new anti-ship missile.

Given China's place in the world, its underlying national trends and America's pointed advantage in just that aspect of military power that's especially damaging to Chinese plans, it seems optimistic for PLA officers to assume they can launch an attack on China's neighbors without first knocking out U.S. forces.

Not that a preemptive strike would make any difference, as the only American forces that truly matter for containing China are the very ones that China cannot reach.

For they are deep underwater.

I dont see there is any quote from the Chinese side which makes the claim
All the spokesmen are American conjectures

The whole article is just a piece of imagination of all the Americans spreading fear across to the bigots and the feeble minded on Capitol Hill and to the media so as to justify their military expansion, political intervention and setting up economic roadblocks

And lastly but not least:

” Worse, the world's liberal economic order — and indeed, the whole notion of democracy — could suffer irreparable harm. "The United States has both a moral and a material interest in a world in which democratic nations can survive and thrive," Cliff asserted.“

What a statement by the world's largest hypocrite and hegemonial dictator
In the name of "democracy" are they going on course to screw the world up yet again

Painting from art print

 

[Huaren]

some viets or viets-wannabe are certainly more obssessed about US-China conflicts than most americans or chinese.

 

[JSCh]

China Tests New Unmanned Mini Sub | The Diplomat
The Haiyan autonomous UUV could greatly enhance China’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

By Zachary Keck, July 01, 2014

University researchers in China have completed testing on a new, autonomous unmanned mini-submarine, Chinese state media reported.

The reports said that researchers at Tianjin University completed a sea test of the Haiyan, an autonomous underwater unmanned vehicle (UUV).

“During the test, the vehicle worked consecutively for 21 days and reached a depth of 1094 meters. With an endurance of 30 days, the torpedo-shaped vehicle propelled at a maximum underwater speed of close to 6 kilometers per hour,” the reports said.


The Haiyan is currently being developed as a civilian vessel for the purposes of scientific exploration of marine biology, seabeds and to aid search and rescue missions. Indeed, the U.S. famously deployed the Bluefin-21 UUV to aid in the search for Malaysian Flight MH370. The Bluefin-21 was able to scan most of the immense search area in the southern Indian Ocean in nine missions.

The Haiyan is not China’s first UUV. In fact, Beijing already maintains larger and faster UUVs. Where the Haiyan does have an edge is that it is an underwater glider which conserves energy and thus heightens endurance. It also has more advanced computing and can transport information in real time and even make decisions about which course to follow in the sea.

Although being developed for civilian uses, research universities in China and elsewhere maintain close links to the national military and the Haiyan is likely to be used by the People’s Liberation Army Navy — perhaps even in a modified armed version.

In fact, the reports in China’s state media noted that “the UUV can also be upgraded by the Chinese navy to serve as a[n] underwater combat and patrol robot, taking on lengthy and dangerous missions like minesweeping and submarine detection, and offer[ing] protection for Chinese ships and oil platforms.”

The Haiyan’s potential anti-submarine warfare (ASW) applications are likely to be especially useful for the PLAN as this is an area where Beijing has traditionally struggled. China’s perceived ASW weakness is being exploited by rival navies in Japan, Vietnam and the United States. Attack submarines would be key, for instance, in any American attempt to eliminate China’s anti-access/area denial capabilities.

As an underwater glider, the Haiyan will be a boon to the PLAN’s efforts to detect enemy submarines which can be eliminated using ASW aircraft and naval capabilities. As Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer explain on their terrific Eastern Arsenals blog:

“Traditionally, area detection for ASW aircraft was done with sonobouys, small, sonar equipped buoys airdropped over an area of water. Underwater gliders have better endurance than sonobuoys, whose lifespan are often measured in just hours. The larger size of underwater gliders (the Haiyan is four times as large as the USN’s 16kg AN/SSQ-62E sonobuoy) also means that they can carry multiple sensor types to monitor changes in water temperature, conductivity, optical backscatter and acoustics. In the battle for detection of a stealthy submarine, using multiple sensor types increases the probability of finding the prey. Being self-propelled, UUVs can, in turn, cover a wider area. And unlike fixed underwater sonar stations, underwater gliders can be rapidly deployed via ships or airdrops to new uncovered areas (such as the Taiwan Straits or South China Sea), where their mobility complicates enemy efforts to disrupt and destroy them.”​

The Haiyan could provide more immediate utility for China. Chinese media outlets have alleged that Vietnam is using combat divers (frogmen) to try and disrupt operations surrounding the Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig in the South China Sea. According to Want China Times, some Chinese media outlets have speculated that the Haiyan will be deployed to try and detect these combat drivers and other special forces being used by adversaries to disrupt Chinese activities in disputed waters.

It seems highly unlikely that the Haiyan will see action during the current dispute with Vietnam over the oil rig, but it certainly could see action in the future in the South China Sea.

 

[slng]

You will get amused by all recent article plotting against Chinese.
Probably their technologies are worrisome to some quarters.

Nevertheless, at greater view, Asia is moving upright.
Probably China is having hard time keeping all aligned.

 

[Carlosa]

some viets or viets-wannabe are certainly more obssessed about US-China conflicts than most americans or chinese.

This is a military forum, if you don't like to discuss military issues, then what are you doing here?

Stick to topic.

I dont see there is any quote from the Chinese side which makes the claim
All the spokesmen are American conjectures

You are most welcome to present a military analysis representing the chinese side.

 

[B@KH]

Therefore the war will be on the seas and Chinese can make ships and subs at a much cheaper rate.

that is exactly what is needed. China needs to control strategic waterways which are used by her enemies.

 

[Carlosa]

Just like how they search for MH-370

The best way to detect and hunt a sub is with another sub, but the hunting sub has to be at least as silent as the hunted sub. Chinese subs are not up to that up to this point, in fact, many of them have a reputation of being very noisy.

American subs have the upper hand, by far. Period !!!!

that is exactly what is needed. China needs to control strategic waterways which are used by her enemies.

Easy to say, but extremely difficult to do.

 

[B@KH]

Easy to say, but extremely difficult to do.

Does not mean to take control.

Strong presence is required. Already present in Indian ocean, Arabian sea, and Bab al Mandib. A strong presence is needed in all strategic waterways. Not much difficult.