China could catch the US in the next ten years.
When you look at the trend, there is a good possibility that China could contest the United States for world leadership in the most cited top scientific research publications.
In the ten year period from 2005 to 2016, the US DECREASED from 40% to 25% of the world's most cited scientific publications. This is a loss of 15 percentage points.
In contrast, China moved from 4% to 14%. This is a gain of 10 percentage points.
Since China is investing more money into science research and the United States is cutting its science budget, China could conceivably catch the United States within 10 years.
Trump budget seeks huge cuts to science and medical research, disease prevention | The Washington Post (May 23, 2017)
"The National Cancer Institute would be hit with a $1 billion cut compared to its 2017 budget. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute would see a $575 million cut, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases would see a reduction of $838 million. The administration would cut the overall National Institutes of Health budget from $31.8 billion to $26 billion.
The National Science Foundation, which dispenses grants to a variety of scientific research endeavors, would be trimmed $776 million, an 11 percent cut.
...
Rush Holt, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, said
a preliminary analysis indicates that the Trump budget would cut about 17 percent from the overall federal research effort. Holt, a physicist and former Democratic congressman from New Jersey, said cuts to research would have long-term economic implications."