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China manufacturing output drops to lowest level in 2 years

punch2000

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China’s manufacturing activity slumped to its lowest level since February 2020, official data showed on Saturday, the latest sign of economic pain as Beijing doggedly pursues its zero-Covid response.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key gauge of manufacturing activity, clocked 47.4 in April – below the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction – as authorities said that a “decline in production and demand” has deepened.

The figures come as Beijing’s policy of swiftly stamping out infections with lockdowns and mass testing has been severely challenged by an Omicron-spurred pandemic resurgence.

Dozens of cities, including economic powerhouses like Shenzhen and Shanghai, have been either fully or partially sealed off in recent months.

The inflexible approach – even as most of the world learns to live with the virus – has inflicted mounting economic pain, with the curbs snarling supply chains and leaving goods piling up at the world’s busiest container port.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) senior statistician Zhao Qinghe acknowledged that some enterprises have had to reduce or stop production, while many firms have reported an increase in transportation difficulties

Dozens
of cities, including economic powerhouses like Shenzhen and Shanghai, have been either fully or partially sealed off in recent months.

The inflexible approach – even as most of the world learns to live with the virus – has inflicted mounting economic pain, with the curbs snarling supply chains and leaving goods piling up at the world’s busiest container port.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) senior statistician Zhao Qinghe acknowledged that some enterprises have had to reduce or stop production, while many firms have reported an increase in transportation difficulties.

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The production and operation of… enterprises have been greatly affected,” Zhao said, according to an NBS statement that also noted the price indexes for raw materials remain “relatively high”.

The official non-manufacturing PMI plummetted to its lowest level since early 2020 as well, NBS figures showed, as the country braces for a muted Labour Day holiday.

‘Situation very concerning’​

On Saturday, Chinese media group Caixin released its own manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, showing a second straight month of deterioration, with the figure dropping from 48.1 to 46.0.

The Caixin survey, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, is seen by some as a more accurate reflection of China’s economic situation than the official government figures, which more closely track the condition of large state groups.

“COVID control measures have done a number on logistics,” said Caixin Insight Group senior economist Wang Zhe in a statement.

Caixin also noted that firms expressed concerns over how long COVID restrictions would remain in place.

Speaking to Al Jazeera from Shaghai, Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank, said the situation was very concerning.

“I’m very worried where this is going because the current lockdown in Shanghai has been looking like it is going to end after this May holiday which means most people can probably walk around their neighbourhoods but for most factories around the East coast they are not in a very good condition,” Wang said.

“Taking notice of what is happening in Shanghai, many other cities are taking precautionary measures – even with one COVID case a whole city can be locked down. We might be looking at a situation where 30 cities might be locked down simultaneously. That is hugely disruptive to the supply chain,” she added.

On Thursday, tech giant Apple warned that China’s COVID lockdowns were among the factors that would dent its June quarter results by $4-8bn.
 
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I do think it's time to ease off the zero COVID policy. It made sense when there was no vaccine or effective treatment causing high fatality rate, but the situation has drastically changed in the past year. Give everyone in China from 12 to 80 booster shots, mandate face mask in indoor places and implement social distancing on public transports.
 
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I do think it's time to ease off the zero COVID policy. It made sense when there was no vaccine or effective treatment causing high fatality rate, but the situation has drastically changed in the past year. Give everyone in China from 12 to 80 booster shots, mandate face mask in indoor places and implement social distancing on public transports.
It depends on whether you are willing to pay the economic price with your life, although most of them are over 60 years old. In Hong Kong of 8 million people, 10,000 people died. If calculated in the same proportion. In Shanghai, where the death toll is less than 500, 30,000 people will die. There will be 1.75 million deaths in China.
While I admit that I have suffered financially, at the moment I fully support the government's approach due to my 76-year-old grandmother.
 
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2% OF CHINA getting lockdown for a month is now equals armageddon. Then 2 years of shit storm. In the west is what?

Depends where that 2% is located.

And if zero covid policy continues that means any possible factory can be shut down for weeks just because few people in the city had covid.

If that continues then moving manufacturing outside China becomes more plausiable even if there is extra costs initially.
 
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Depends where that 2% is located.

And if zero covid policy continues that means any possible factory can be shut down for weeks just because few people in the city had covid.

If that continues then moving manufacturing outside China becomes more plausiable even if there is extra costs initially.
It's not possible to move out of China. Fat hope. The temporary shut down are still worth it for a world class hardworking work force who do OT, couple with world class infrastructure and an efficient government who ensure best environment for manufacturing.
 
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It depends on whether you are willing to pay the economic price with your life, although most of them are over 60 years old. In Hong Kong of 8 million people, 10,000 people died. If calculated in the same proportion. In Shanghai, where the death toll is less than 500, 30,000 people will die. There will be 1.75 million deaths in China.
While I admit that I have suffered financially, at the moment I fully support the government's approach due to my 76-year-old grandmother.

Millions in China die every year (10.6 million in 2019 before pandemic) from natural causes, including diseases. To ruin the economy and livelihood of people over an insignificant increase in mortality percentage is not logical. Hospitalization rate for Omicron is 0.6% and fatality rate is 0.03%, which is low enough to warrant ease of restrictions. If you insist that COVID must be eliminated, then the same insistence should be extended to all infectious diseases which would be silly.

 
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It depends on whether you are willing to pay the economic price with your life, although most of them are over 60 years old. In Hong Kong of 8 million people, 10,000 people died. If calculated in the same proportion. In Shanghai, where the death toll is less than 500, 30,000 people will die. There will be 1.75 million deaths in China.
While I admit that I have suffered financially, at the moment I fully support the government's approach due to my 76-year-old grandmother.
Human life has a price tag. If you don't believe it, try to prolong an 80-year-old man for another 10 years at the cost of half of your national GDP.
 
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Depends where that 2% is located.

And if zero covid policy continues that means any possible factory can be shut down for weeks just because few people in the city had covid.

If that continues then moving manufacturing outside China becomes more plausiable even if there is extra costs initially.
Foreigners in general are customers of Chinese manufacturing, not owners. So all that happens is that price increases and you'll just have to eat it. Moving to a non Chinese competitor? You'll find that their parts are delayed because they import components from China. You can't escape China.
 
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Foreigners in general are customers of Chinese manufacturing, not owners. So all that happens is that price increases and you'll just have to eat it. Moving to a non Chinese competitor? You'll find that their parts are delayed because they import components from China. You can't escape China.
The war in Ukraine might upset China's ambitions to become a leader in chip production. Russia supplies over 40 per cent of world’s palladium and Ukraine produces 70 per cent of neon. palladium and neon are two resources that are key to the production of semiconductor chips



 
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The war in Ukraine might upset China's ambitions to become a leader in chip production. Russia supplies over 40 per cent of world’s palladium and Ukraine produces 70 per cent of neon. palladium and neon are two resources that are key to the production of semiconductor chips



If China suffers a shortage so does the world because China can outbid anyone for those resources.

Last link is for refrigerator compressor. You don't know what you are talking about.
 
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If China suffers a shortage so does the world because China can outbid anyone for those resources.

Last link is for refrigerator compressor. You don't know what you are talking about.
The global supply chain is going to see a major paradigm shift in the next 1-2 decade
 
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India's economic performance is still very strong in developing countries, but this needs to be observed in ten years. As far as I guess, India will reach a per capita GDP of $5,000
 
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