China-Iran strategic nexus: Implications for Pakistan

[GlobalVillageSpace]

Global Village Space |

China and Iran are reportedly mulling over striking a strategic-cum-economic deal worth $400 billion. The yet-to-conclude deal is reportedly dropping India out of the key rail and energy projects signed four years ago.

Earlier, India signed a deal with Iran in the presence of the Afghan president four years ago in 2016, “according to which India was expected of investing $1.6 billion in a railroad project from Chabahar to Zahedan for linking to Afghanistan and Turkmenistan and then to Europe”.

Indian influence in Iran waning

India, moreover, was expected to invest approximately $6 billion in various energy projects. Answering the question about the reported ousting of India from these key projects, an Iranian official came up with the words that Iran did not like a partner, which looked for third party permissions before taking any step.

Another factor adding to this delay in payment for the proposed projects was dragging India out of these projects.

Read more: Iranian-Indian-Russian Push: Alternative to Suez & BRI?

The Indian presence in Iran was a key challenge for Pakistan vis-a-vis its relations with Iran, its security, economic and regional interests. In light of these issues, among others, reported China- Iran’s strategic deal prove a blessing in disguise for Pakistan.
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China-Iran strategic nexus: Implications for Pakistan

 

[Sineva]

The indians also lost the farzad-B gas field too,whats the bet that iran will remove them from the chabahar port development as well?
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/india-faces-double-blow-in-iranian-rail-gas-projects/1913207
This is a rather pointed lesson not just for india but for every other nation,that this is what happens when you allow another nation to dictate who you can or cannot do business with.

 

[Ocelot]

One implication is that Chinese are tired of the Baloch in-fighting, paranoid Indians and their threats, and the bureaucratic incompetence in Pakistan and want to secure itself another port which can serve as an alternative to Gwadar. $400 billion isn't some trifling sum, you can't ignore it.

Sure it'll pass through many countries, but logically it's better to have a port than no port at all.

 

[TNT]

One implication is that Chinese are tired of the Baloch in-fighting, paranoid Indians and their threats, and the bureaucratic incompetence in Pakistan and want to secure itself another port which can serve as an alternative to Gwadar. $400 billion isn't some trifling sum, you can't ignore it.

Sure it'll pass through many countries, but logically it's better to have a port than no port at all.

Ur wrong, china is not interested in chabahar or as alternate to gawadar. There is no direct connection between iran and china, it has to go through Afghanistan which is more hostile and insecure, the roite through central asia has many countries and is not feasible. China did the deal to get extremely cheap oil for 25 years. China has a huge import of oil and if its oil imports are halted at sea, they will face huge shortage. This iran deal infact is only possible because of CPEC. What route u think the iranian oil will go to china? Through Afghanistan or through Pakistan?? Its like china is now cashing CPEC, using the new accessibility to get new deal and new allies.

 

[Feng Leng]

China needs a trade route across the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf through to Basra and then on to Syria, Lebanon and Eastern Mediterranean. Eventually, Chinese forces will be a presence in the Mediterranean.

 

[Ocelot]

Ur wrong, china is not interested in chabahar or as alternate to gawadar. There is no direct connection between iran and china, it has to go through Afghanistan which is more hostile and insecure, the roite through central asia has many countries and is not feasible. China did the deal to get extremely cheap oil for 25 years. China has a huge import of oil and if its oil imports are halted at sea, they will face huge shortage. This iran deal infact is only possible because of CPEC. What route u think the iranian oil will go to china? Through Afghanistan or through Pakistan?? Its like china is now cashing CPEC, using the new accessibility to get new deal and new allies.

Not Afghanistan but CARs. The entire BRI project passes through many countries which include CARs, so the logic that Iranian route will have the disadvantage of many countries in its path doesn't work. You're underestimating Chinese financial muscle.

 

[Song Hong]

The gas of South Pars and oil of Iran can be piped to China while bypassing Straits of Malacca.

 

[TNT]

Not Afghanistan but CARs. The entire BRI project passes through many countries which include CARs, so the logic that Iranian route will have the disadvantage of many countries in its path doesn't work. You're underestimating Chinese financial muscle.

CPEC is also funded by china so why would china undermine its own investment? Even the iran china deal does not specify chabahar like its CPEC showcases gawadar. Iran does not have access to international financial market, this deal gives them a $400 billion package from china where they can have weapons, infrastructure development, energy related etc, in return for cheap oil. Its not like the CPEC which is a planned specific project of connectivity including a port.
China would use cpec route to take oil from iran. It may also use CAR routes depending on feasibility and intended market. CPEC is the most secure prospect for china as its trust in Pakistan. CARs are under russian influence and chinese would be resisted at some time.

 

[Uguduwa]

Pakistan would be dumped like an annoying ex-girlfriend

 

[925boy]

Ur wrong, china is not interested in chabahar or as alternate to gawadar.

Thats not true..As a matter of fact, Iran already leased out part of Chabahar, or the docks, or some important section of it to Chinese entities....there is almost no chance that China wont develop or and use Chabahar more actively once this long term deal kicks in. Chabahar WILL be needed...because economic activity will ramp up considerably...

There is no direct connection between iran and china, it has to go through Afghanistan which is more hostile and insecure, the roite through central asia has many countries and is not feasible.

But your country could have made it simpler if you had done your part of the IP pipeline! If the IP pipeline was working now, it could be connected to pipelines in Pakistan that supply China oil...but you didnt do it..smh.

China did the deal to get extremely cheap oil for 25 years.

No other option, and tbh, thats a small cost for Iran...you have to be aware that due to sanctions and use of lesser effective oil technologies, Iran has actually saved alot of its oil,and not used up its well as severely as Saudi, or Kuwaiti or UAE oil well, which constant use of hyper active Western technology has emptied out their wells considerably more than Iranian wells, so this "oil for 25 years" is cheap.. and Iran found more oil in recent years that have only buffered the giant reserves of hydrocarbons Iran has.When it comes to Hydrocarbons, Iran can provide for cheap for years, so whats your question again??

This iran deal infact is only possible because of CPEC.

Thats false and a fallacy. You claim something(CPEC created Iran deal) but dont back it up, so this is only an assertion, not a solid conclusion. ALso, BRI created this IRan deal , not CPEC, stop being so selfish by thinking everything rotates around Pakistan's CPEC...CPEC is a creative economic CHinese GIft to Pakistan that still compliments BRI. Enjoy it, no need to be insecure about other ports...keep handling Gwadar well as you are and keep making your country proud by doing so.

What route u think the iranian oil will go to china?

Mostly sea, but soon through Pakistan...Pakistan will have gto open the oil pipeline to Iran, and i bet it happens within 5 years from now. screenshot this! Why? Pakistan is in China's orbit now..firm and square...Pakistan is the piece needed to easily ship Iranian oil overland to CHina...so its only a matter of time, not if.

Through Afghanistan or through Pakistan??

Through your country, Pakistan,within 5 years from now...very soon...

Its like china is now cashing CPEC, using the new accessibility to get new deal and new allies.

WHy not? you thought they invested over 50bn$ into that project to just watch you Pakistanis JOLLOF/enjoy on their dolla??? c'mon bra, be real. Its CHina's time NOW, period...so things are falling in line because of that.

 

[Globenim]

Dont blame China. India struggles to manage its own survival and grovels in fear of the Trump regime and only hampered the progress of Irans projects and wasting Irans time. Its just more obvious that India is an unreliable partner and paperweight when China takes actions regardless of the barks of a rotting U.S.A. But thats not Chinas fault.

 

[vi-va]

CPEC is also funded by china so why would china undermine its own investment? Even the iran china deal does not specify chabahar like its CPEC showcases gawadar. Iran does not have access to international financial market, this deal gives them a $400 billion package from china where they can have weapons, infrastructure development, energy related etc, in return for cheap oil. Its not like the CPEC which is a planned specific project of connectivity including a port.
China would use cpec route to take oil from iran. It may also use CAR routes depending on feasibility and intended market. CPEC is the most secure prospect for china as its trust in Pakistan. CARs are under russian influence and chinese would be resisted at some time.

Cars are oil and gas exporters as well. Cars are competitors of Iran, they are less motivated to help Iran open China oil/gas market. While Pakistan is oil/gas importer, Pakistan get the pipeline and download oil/gas as well. Win-win.