China faces 'unstoppable' population decline by mid-century

[Nilgiri]

Let senior citizens work. Europeans have shown us the way.

There are more options coming up fast regarding consultancy on software/design/handling side that younger plebs simply have little aptitude for....part of the reason my dad working still (official retirement age in singapore is very close)...though he could have stopped some while ago if he wanted..... and probably be involved in all kind of jobs after that (as he chooses) given his skills niche + experience that make him very attractive even to a fast changing sector like his.

I agree mandatory retirement age should be a fading concept....let merit and free will of the older folk ebb and flow as they would like it to.

@waz @Dubious thread derail attempt at post #25

 

[Yankee-stani]

There are more options coming up fast regarding consultancy on software/design/handling side that younger plebs simply have little aptitude for....part of the reason my dad working still (official retirement age in singapore is very close) and probably be involved in all kind of jobs given his skills niche + experience that make him very attractive even to a fast changing sector like his.

I agree mandatory retirement age should be a fading concept....let merit and free will of the older folk ebb and flow as they would like it to.

@waz @Dubious thread derail attempt at post #25

I am doubtful China would open up to multiculturalism or full immigration, first Chinese are still emigrating en masse to Canada, and US I see it still and I know some would disagree but I still see the flow and for some reason they have more kids here also speaking to a lot of expats who lived in China and Far East for decade at most they cant stay forever first language is hard asf, culture is too conforming, its polluted as hell sorry true as for China they still got a billion people regardless compared to Korea and Japan plus automation will mean low end labor jobs in the next decade or 2 will drop like flies.I would advise China to be wary of what Germany and France examples

 

[Nilgiri]

I am doubtful China would open up to multiculturalism or full immigration, first Chinese are still emigrating en masse to Canada, and US I see it still and I know some would disagree but I still see the flow and for some reason they have more kids here also speaking to a lot of expats who lived in China and Far East for decade at most they cant stay forever first language is hard asf, culture is too conforming, its polluted as hell sorry true as for China they still got a billion people regardless compared to Korea and Japan plus automation will mean low end labor jobs in the next decade or 2 will drop like flies.I would advise China to be wary of what Germany and France examples

China will definitely not open up to true immigration. At most maybe a few service related expats w.r.t Hong Kong model (applied a bit more to Shanghai, Beijing, maybe cpl other cities at most whichever are designated for it)...and maybe some research/academic imports on top of that (to keep that stuff chugging along)....but there will never be per capita intensity immigration (who need laymen jobs + real social investment into cultural merging/nuance etc) like the west has commited to today.

It is frankly an unthinkable concept...the memories of why the Qing dynasty frayed and ended like it did still stay in their core Chinese psyche (esp at elite level, and esp seeing what followed for a good 50 years after) for a reason. It simply will not be tolerated....and I highly empathise with them on it....in fact I wish the West (and everyone more broadly) followed more of that concept rather than what they are quite blindly doing so now in many cases.

@Desert Fox

 

[GeraltofRivia]

I am doubtful China would open up to multiculturalism or full immigration, first Chinese are still emigrating en masse to Canada, and US I see it still and I know some would disagree but I still see the flow and for some reason they have more kids here also speaking to a lot of expats who lived in China and Far East for decade at most they cant stay forever first language is hard asf, culture is too conforming, its polluted as hell sorry true as for China they still got a billion people regardless compared to Korea and Japan plus automation will mean low end labor jobs in the next decade or 2 will drop like flies.I would advise China to be wary of what Germany and France examples

Yes while we are talking about “decline”, we need to be conscious that the base is so large (1.3b) so that it takes a long long time to consider of lack of manpower. Also China is still a developing country, its living standard is a fraction of that of developed countries, which means it will not attract massive amounts (in Chinese scale) of migrants seeking work even in the next couple of decades. We are really talking about something beyond 2050.

By the way there was a period of multiculturalism in China in Tang Dynasty, when the State promoted importing things from other cultures (mainly from Central Asia, Arab, and Persia). There were large number of traders and migrants from the outside world to China. It naturally had a lot to do with Tang’s expansion into Central Asia. Probably the first time China had a bit taste of multiculturalism. It ends badly with An Shi rebellion. We have not seen the same thing at the same scale in later dynasties, partially because the change of external environment (blockage of Silk Road) and rise of conservative thinking.

 

[Desert Fox]

China will definitely not open up to true immigration. At most maybe a few service related expats w.r.t Hong Kong model (applied a bit more to Shanghai, Beijing, maybe cpl other cities at most whichever are designated for it)...and maybe some research/academic imports on top of that (to keep that stuff chugging along)....but there will never be per capita intensity immigration (who need laymen jobs + real social investment into cultural merging/nuance etc) like the west has commited to today.

It is frankly an unthinkable concept...the memories of why the Qing dynasty frayed and ended like it did still stay in their core Chinese psyche (esp at elite level, and esp seeing what followed for a good 50 years after) for a reason. It simply will not be tolerated....and I highly empathise with them on it....in fact I wish the West (and everyone more broadly) followed more of that concept rather than what they are quite blindly doing so now in many cases.

@Desert Fox

True. Chinese and East Asian mindset in general is very different from western mindset (current one at least) in that they recognize the importance of ethnic and racial homogeneity in order for a cohesive society to exist, let alone function, and no way they will open their borders to foreigners after witnessing the events in the west. They would much rather go the route of automation.

 

[somsak]

No civilization can withstand 0.00 total fertility rate. China and East Asia is headingtoward extinction. The only way is toprohibit abortion, and contraception.

 

[Dubious]

You Indians need to stop raping and producing babies. No means no!

Behave in a civil manner when engaging with members on this forum!!

 

[jamahir]

I was talking about a more near date , say 2050. Now, you do mentioned “release” of new lands due to global warming and climate change, but, have you considered that many countries (in some proportions of its land) will become uninhabitable due to extreme temperatures ? We have studies saying large part of middle eat will be hard to live on due to the extreme temperature in summers. Similarly, studies shows that maldiev will be under water before 2030. And half of bangladesh, large part of thatta district in pakistan and half of karachi will be under sea. This is just about subcontinent. Global warming will open greenland but it will close large part of middle east and some part of asia for humans.

Yes, I hadn't considered the areas already hot and their heat levels to rise via global warming.

A settlement on mars is not economically viable and not feasiblr for a population larger then 1000. We dont know/not sure (for know) about the minerals that is worthy to be put in a space ship and transfered to earth which on the other hand will cover the costs of 1000’s of humans living on mars. Moon is a good contestant due to the fact that helium can be sourced from there but thats something that even machines can do in the supervision of 3-5 humans.

I agree about the Moon.

The film Moon has the same theme. Trailer.

About Mars, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter lies the Asteroid Belt - an uncountable sources of minerals and metals.

About atomic fuel, if I remember the sci-fi book, Jupiter ( by Ben Bova ) correctly, the atomic fuels can be collected by robot ships from the atmosphere of Jupiter. Of course, the robot ships mustn't get too deep into the atmosphere else they will be simply pulled in.

Also, tramsformation of mars to current state took 1000’s of years (natural way). If we even comeup with a way to quickly teraform mars, that still wont be sooner then 50-60 years. We wont be able to reduce the fluctuation in day amd night temperature to 30-40 degrees in 50-60 years which BTW currently touches 60-80 degrees ( i assume).

Maybe we should simply crash a nominally large asteroid into one of the two ice-caps of Mars. Water will be released into the atmosphere, thus thickening it.

What do you say, @Hamartia Antidote , @KapitaanAli @Levina ??

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Maybe we should simply crash a nominally large asteroid into one of the two ice-caps of Mars. Water will be released into the atmosphere, thus thickening it.

What do you say, @Hamartia Antidote , @KapitaanAli @Levina ??

No matter what we do there is a high chance of a f*ck-up. Scientists would have to take 20 years to figure out all the stupid unexpected/unintended results that could happen before trying anything.

Stupid things like the planet slows spinning by 0.000001% which is just enough to affect one of its moons orbits by a slight amount that causes some other stupidness.

 

[Dubious]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/asia/china-population-decline-study-intl/index.html

Kindly provide proper source! I fixed it this time...Wont do it next time!

 

[RealNapster]

About Mars, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter lies the Asteroid Belt - an uncountable sources of minerals and metals.

About atomic fuel, if I remember the sci-fi book, Jupiter ( by Ben Bova ) correctly, the atomic fuels can be collected by robot ships from the atmosphere of Jupiter. Of course, the robot ships mustn't get too deep into the atmosphere else they will be simply pulled in.

Let me study about this asteroid.

Also, @Hamartia Antidote explained the crashing part pretty well in post # 39.