China faces 'unstoppable' population decline by mid-century

[F-22Raptor]

China will face an "unstoppable" population decline over the coming decades, with fewer and fewer workers struggling to support an increasingly aging society, according to a report by a leading state-sponsored Chinese thinktank.

The report, which comes more than three years since China officially ended its controversial decades-long one-child policy, warns that the "the era of negative population growth is almost here," forecasting that the country's population will peak at 1.44 billion in 2029.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report suggests that the decline in fertility rates will lead to a decrease in overall population to 1990-era levels of 1.172 billion by 2065. World Bank data from 2017 showed a Chinese population of 1.386 billion.

The country's working-age population has stagnated, the report states, while its dependency ratio -- the number of working people in relation to non-working, largely children and retired people -- continues to skew.

"In theory, long-term population decline, especially accompanied with the increasing escalation of aging of population, is bound to bring very negative social and economic consequences," the report states, without elaborating on what these consequences could entail.

Experts have warned that as China's working age population shrinks so too will domestic consumption, which could have unintended consequences for the global economy, which has relied on China as a growth engine.

The report says that the country should start preparing and crafting policy to meet the challenges of the impending decline.

After decades of following a strict one-child policy, in 2015 Beijing announced that it would drop the controversial policy, which, for decades has been blamed for infanticide and forced sterilizations.

Under current family planning rules, the majority of Chinese couples are limited to two children, following the easing of the country's notorious policy, which was enacted in 2016.

However, the changes failed to produce a spike in the birth rate. In 2017, the country's total fertility rate was 1.6 children per woman, well below the 2.1 rate estimated to be necessary to keep the population steady.

The current, two-child restrictions look set to be further relaxed under a draft reform to the country's Civil Code, potentially allowing families to have multiple children for the first time in decades.

Despite the projected declines in the world's most populous nation, the United Nations expects the global population to continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate.

A 2017 report from the world body estimated the 2017 number at 7.6 billion, which is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by the end of the century.

India, the world's second-largest country by inhabitants, is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous by 2024, according to that report.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/asia/china-population-decline-study-intl/index.html

 

[Type59]

Is that a bad thing? China will still have more people then whole of EU. Reducing world population growth is important.

 

[Han Patriot]

And India is gonna face unstoppable population rise to become a supapowa

 

[Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA]

Is that a bad thing? China will still have more people then whole of EU. Reducing world population growth is important.

Actually EU and US combined together.

unstoppable collapse of CHINA,RIGHT!

And India is gonna face unstoppable population rise to become a supapowa

If population matters ,Nigeria should be number 1 in africa ,apparently not !
And US should worry India as well,apparently not.

 

[Han Patriot]

Actually EU and US combined together.

unstoppable collapse of CHINA,RIGHT!


If population matters ,Nigeria should be number 1 in africa ,apparently not !
And US should worry India as well,apparently not.

Population drop is only a worry if productivity and demand drops, the opposite is happening, China is automating her factories, with increased incomes comes increased consuming power. We cannot depend on having a large population as the only driver of growth, having better living standards for our population albeit shrinking is the way forward.

 

[Mista]

A declining population isn't an issue especially for China; an aging population is.

Aging population is not just a random statistic detached from reality like total GDP or economic power, it has real impact on the lives of the common people.

 

[Han Patriot]

A declining population isn't an issue especially for China; an aging population is.

Aging population is not just a random statistic detached from reality like total GDP or economic power, it has real impact on the lives of the common people.

Sooner or later people need to die and population cannot keep on growing forever. I am an environmentalist apart from my military interests.

 

[RealNapster]

If china can control its “unstopable population growth” it surely can control “unstopable drop” in that growth. And even if the fail to control it, there is always a handy option for nations in such situation, immigrants. Population of Africa will be huge at that time of century and china can easily manage to import 5-10 million skilled immigrants (in 7-8 years span) from Africa, India, Pakistan and such other countries. Now, though 10 million young workers is not much for a country like China , but with this fast innovative world we will need half of workforce that we need today to do a particular task in an industry.

@jamahir , @Joe Shearer
Your take on this

 

[OIO]

If china can control its “unstopable population growth” it surely can control “unstopable drop” in that growth. And even if the fail to control it, there is always a handy option for nations in such situation, immigrants. Population of Africa will be huge at that time of century and china can easily manage to import 5-10 million skilled immigrants (in 7-8 years span) from Africa, India, Pakistan and such other countries. Now, though 10 million young workers is not much for a country like China , but with this fast innovative world we will need half of workforce that we need today to do a particular task in an industry.

@jamahir , @Joe Shearer
Your take on this

control the population then import that's unacceptable for Chinese people.
that means death of the country death of the culture.
China is not a migrate country.

 

[RealNapster]

control the population then import that's unacceptable for Chinese people.
that means death of the country death of the culture.
China is not a migrate country.

Many westerners living in china now, many students that went to china from Pakistan remain their even after completion of their degree. And this is china of today. Just imagine the china of 2040-50. It will be more open society them today.

 

[Mista]

Sooner or later people need to die and population cannot keep on growing forever. I am an environmentalist apart from my military interests.

World population will plateau one day, but the speed of aging will determine whether the society can age gracefully without placing a heavy burden on the next generation. IMO a TFR of 1.8 is ideal for the world currently, a manageable decline.

China's National Bureau of Statistics put China's TFR at 1.05 in 2015.

 

[OIO]

Many westerners living in china now, many students that went to china from Pakistan remain their even after completion of their degree. And this is china of today. Just imagine the china of 2040-50. It will be more open society them today.

totally different, they are not citizens.

 

[RealNapster]

totally different, they are not citizens.

I talked about immigrants in my first post, not citizens. SKILLED IMMIGRANTS

 

[Joe Shearer]

If china can control its “unstopable population growth” it surely can control “unstopable drop” in that growth. And even if the fail to control it, there is always a handy option for nations in such situation, immigrants. Population of Africa will be huge at that time of century and china can easily manage to import 5-10 million skilled immigrants (in 7-8 years span) from Africa, India, Pakistan and such other countries. Now, though 10 million young workers is not much for a country like China , but with this fast innovative world we will need half of workforce that we need today to do a particular task in an industry.

@jamahir , @Joe Shearer
Your take on this

I know about this forthcoming decline in population, especially about the decline in working population and growth of dependent population; it is interesting to read about it again in the pages of a defence journal, although it is disappointing to see what members have made of it.

Let me start backwards, @RealNapster, you first. You mentioned the possibility of reversing the unstoppable drop in growth, and you mentioned immigration as a remedy. First, it is impossible to see the reversing of the unstoppable drop in growth; we have before us a population that is already used to comfort and to lack of competition inside the family. This population is 'empowered', by its own estimation and also by the social sanctions extended in its favour by the administrative authorities; certainly, the Chinese population is no longer inured to struggle in order to survive.

The second issue is of substitution by immigration. Unlikely.

More than fifteen years ago, the impact of this same phenomenon started hitting Japan. Their work-force declined, their ageing population increased, their population of future workers was declining fastest. As a result of very demanding working hours, and the increasing consumerism and expectations of comfort levels, their marriage rate also declined. At the time that I last checked, official sources reported a shortfall of around 15000 engineers a year.

Immigration was tried. It failed.

The Japanese, and the Chinese, as the world will soon find out, are unable to co-exist with those who are not like them. Even Filipinos and Koreans had problems with them. There is no question of floods of south Asians or Africans resettling in either country to tide over their own replacement problems.

I won't be there to see 2050, but you will, and remember then, I TOLD YOU SO.

Coming to defence. The down-sizing of defence organisations will continue, and the surge of technical innovation and cyber-warfare will continue. Future Chinese warfare will be waged on the electronic waves, not on the oceans, not on the mountains. They will conduct tight inland surveillance, and send in personnel only on a hunt-and-kill mission. In spite of their best efforts, their attempt to swamp Xijang or Tibet with larger numbers of Han colonisers will fail. Their attempts at bottling up Islamic tendencies in Xinjiang will also fail.

They will patrol with remote-controlled vehicles and aerial units (and remote controlled powered naval units as well), follow up with missiles, of short-, medium- and long-range, and commit personnel only in the most dire of emergencies. This means that slowly but inexorably, they will switch over to remote 24 hr inspection of borders, with intervention squads ready to move in less than the time taken for it to move out on a periodic route march and return.

Beyond the borders, there will be no major flash points after 2030, give or take 5-years. The dashes on their maps will remain, the reefs shored up into islands will continue, their naval build-up three vessels per class will continue, their ripped-off aircraft will be jammed with their own nationalisations of existing imported equipment. As a consequence, their performance will continue to be rated at 60 to 80% of the originals. But everything will converge towards remote-controlled unmanned equipment, and very strong communications.

In the unfortunate event that wars, or at least border conflicts, have to be fought, their military organisation will terrify any typical enemy. Missiles, surface to surface missiles, will play a major role; massed artillery will be the mainstay, however, and their opening, or supporting barrages will be followed up by the advance of wheeled or tracked remote controlled scout cars and light tanks, with self-loading ordnance and unified remote controlled target acquisition and fire control. Their skills in advanced electronics will continue to be advanced, possibly in partnership with Japanese or South Korean technological assistance, partnership or collaboration. As a result, their knowledge of battlefields will be very accurate, offering multimedia oversight of events in real time. Their domination of the air can be extrapolated from the present state of play.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, to challenge China militarily; however, conversely, the world will see a nation increasingly reluctant to move beyond its borders, increasingly tired of Zheng He, and cautious about military commitments. If the Taiwan issue is not resolved by 2030, it may never be resolved. China will, however, continue to build and launch several Carrier Task Forces; whether they will have a critical military role remains to be seen but it will give China the sublime self-confidence of having joined the ranks of the super-powers. They will be very active in the northern Indian Ocean, with their surface and submerged units prominently to be seen in port around the region, modelled in stealth forms, equipped with very advanced radar, missiles and deck-mounted rotary wing aircraft - and a minimal human presence.

Things will change massively, dear Sir.

 

[Sugarcane]

It's China you are talking about, If needed they will start manufacturing designer babies in factories.