China backing out on power project

[WishLivePak]

Here is another one for 2016 (Actually combined cycle gas plants are the cheapest):

The point is, if @That Guy accepts this. He's saying he has vast knowledge and so forth and that coal is best for Pakistan because it's cheapest and if I speak about environment damage and choosing gas instead, he says then why not go for wind and solar power.

It's like telling someone to drive at 50km/h instead of 10km/h. But he will say, why not go at 100km/h.

Being close to middle east and gas pipelines in work, gas powered plants are best for Pakistan, combined with nuclear and hydro power. Though wind energy can be suitable for elevated areas, but we can instead build mini dams there since we have water source.

note that the graph is in 2007 dollars. It'll likely be more expensive due to constant dollar value.

 

[Daneshmand]

The point is, if @That Guy accepts this. He's saying he has vast knowledge and so forth and that coal is best for Pakistan because it's cheapest and if I speak about environment damage and choosing gas instead, he says then why not go for wind and solar power.

It's like telling someone to drive at 50km/h instead of 10km/h. But he will say, why not go at 100km/h.

Being close to middle east and gas pipelines in work, gas powered plants are best for Pakistan, combined with nuclear and hydro power. Though wind energy can be suitable for elevated areas, but we can instead build mini dams there since we have water source.

note that the graph is in 2007 dollars. It'll likely be more expensive due to constant dollar value.

Well, coal was an excellent choice, till a few decades ago. But nowadays, coal is almost universally being ditched in favor of other sources because of variety of reasons.

Yes, the graph is in 2007 dollars. But it wont make much difference. For advanced combined cycle gas plants each kilowatt would cost 8 cents in 2007 dollars and probably 9 cents in 2016. The idea of that graph is not solid pricing which can vary from one country to the next (due to differences in labor costs) but the COMPARISON of costs of different sources of electricity.

As can be seen in above two graphs, the solar generated electricity is over 5 times more expensive than the electricity generated by combined cycle gas power plant and still 4 times more expensive than the electricity generated by combined cycle gas power plant with CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) if the country wants to be super-environmentally friendly with zero carbon emission. Solar with current level of technology is not economically feasible.

And the most important thing for Pakistan should be the capital cost of the plant (the cost to build the plant). As you can see in the above two graphs, the combined cycle gas power plants have the lowest capital cost compared to other forms of electricity generation. This is specially important since Pakistan is a poor country and might not be able to afford huge initial investment required by constructing other kind of power plants.

 

[WishLivePak]

Well, coal was an excellent choice, till a few decades ago. But nowadays, coal is almost universally being ditched in favor of other sources because of variety of reasons.

Yes, the graph is in 2007 dollars. But it wont make much difference. For advanced combined cycle gas plants each kilowatt would cost 8 cents in 2007 dollars and probably 9 cents in 2016. The idea of that graph is not solid pricing which can vary from one country to the next (due to differences in labor costs) but the COMPARISON of costs of different sources of electricity.

As can be seen in above two graphs, the solar generated electricity is over 5 times more expensive than the electricity generated by combined cycle gas power plant and still 4 times more expensive than the electricity generated by combined cycle gas power plant with CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) if the country wants to be super-environmentally friendly with zero carbon emission. Solar with current level of technology is not economically feasible.

And the most important thing for Pakistan should be the capital cost of the plant (the cost to build the plant). As you can see in the above two graphs, the combined cycle gas power plants have the lowest capital cost compared to other forms of electricity generation. This is specially important since Pakistan is a poor country and might not be able to afford huge initial investment required by constructing other kind of power plants.

Yeah coal was important but no longer, as the slump in prices is still not stopping countries heading towards gas or other plants.

Germany is super rich and environment friendly but even for it the solar power is 30% (I don't know if wind is included in that). I went through country side in Germany and wind power was was beautiful!

 

[Daneshmand]

Yeah coal was important but no longer, as the slump in prices is still not stopping countries heading towards gas or other plants.

Germany is super rich and environment friendly but even for it the solar power is 30% (I don't know if wind is included in that). I went through country side in Germany and wind power was was beautiful!

Yes, it all depends how a nation wants it to be. Germany subsidized the solar projects because they have so much extra money around.

 

[WishLivePak]

Yes, it all depends how a nation wants it to be. Germany subsidized the solar projects because they have so much extra money around.

my point was, even they couldn't do 100% because it's super expensive

 

[Daneshmand]

my point was, even they couldn't do 100% because it's super expensive

Yeah, I understood that. That is why I said, Germany has alot of money and they can subsidize such things and as you yourself say, they still could not do it 100%. Beside solar power has the draw back of no generation during the night hours and since it is very difficult to store electricity in large amounts, I do not think 100% is even possible. For Pakistan advanced combined cycle power plants are the best since they require very little capital cost to build and the cost of electricity they produce is one of the cheapest if not the cheapest.

 

[WishLivePak]

Yeah, I understood that. That is why I said, Germany has alot of money and they can subsidize such things and as you yourself say, they still could not do it 100%. Beside solar power has the draw back of no generation during the night hours and since it is very difficult to store electricity in large amounts, I do not think 100% is even possible. For Pakistan advanced combined cycle power plants are the best since they require very little capital cost to build and the cost of electricity they produce is one of the cheapest if not the cheapest.

Well they also have wind power and nuclear power, so they can do 100%.

Pakistan can do solar power, but then we will have to increase the tariffs to pay off the investments we made. Sadly, even currently we're providing subsidies. So such adventure will bankrupt Pakistan.

 

[Daneshmand]

Well they also have wind power and nuclear power, so they can do 100%.

Pakistan can do solar power, but then we will have to increase the tariffs to pay off the investments we made. Sadly, even currently we're providing subsidies. So such adventure will bankrupt Pakistan.

Yes, they have wind turbines but in the next 7 years, Germany is phasing out all of its nuclear power plants, becoming completely nuclear free nation. They are replacing nuclear plants with advanced gas combined cycle plants along with carbon capture and storage technology.

Taking into account the gdp/capita of Pakistan, such subsidies towards solar plants are idiotic waste of money. That money is better spent in education, healthcare, social reforms and infrastructure development.

 

[WishLivePak]

Yes, they have wind turbines but in the next 7 years, Germany is phasing out all of its nuclear power plants, becoming completely nuclear free nation. They are replacing nuclear plants with advanced gas combined cycle plants along with carbon capture and storage technology.

Taking into account the gdp/capita of Pakistan, such subsidies towards solar plants are idiotic waste of money. That money is better spent in education, healthcare, social reforms and infrastructure development.

well it's part of culture. Pay little to no tax, still complain why oil price isn't 5 rupees like in iran, take no loans, and still expect gov't to be functional.

 

[Basel]

6,600MW Gadani power project put on back burner - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

China is here for self interest. This "Deeper than deepest ocean" blah blah is only because if Chinese interest in region. If US was our neighbour, it'd be same story.

China isn't doing us any favor, rather we're doing them a favor due to the amount of concessions they get.

First lesson of economics class: There is no free lunch and there only exists self interest. The sooner my fellow majority Pakistanis realize this, the sooner Pakistan can grow stronger. Until then, it's a third world country and a puppet state. It has to dance to the tunes of international aid. "We give you X, if you do X for us, even if it means going against your religion or cultural values."

China will not finance any project which is full of corruption and not feasibility, it is mistake and corruption of Pakistani authorities who make those feasibility.

 

[Daneshmand]

well it's part of culture. Pay little to no tax, still complain why oil price isn't 5 rupees like in iran, take no loans, and still expect gov't to be functional.

Well, oil (I assume you mean gasoline) is not 5 rupees in Iran either. It is rather about 30 cents (30 rupees?) per liter, though CNG is cheaper. It is cheap but not free.

I do not believe taxation is the solution in an economy the size of Pakistan where per capita GDP is low with a very low Gini score. Rather there should be relaxation in taxation, since Pakistan's economy is not that big and strong. Only a stable economy can afford to tax its citizens and investors. A faltering economy trying to increase taxation will only put burden on an already sick system. The solution is to increase investment and for that you have to make the investors comfortable about choosing Pakistan as their destination.

This has to go on till Pakistan can stabilize its economy enough in order to tax it. Hiking taxation in the situation Pakistan is now, will only cause massive capital flight with investors (specially the big ones) moving their wealth out to other nations resulting in disaster. Another area, where funds can be generated in the case of a country like Pakistan, is the use of natural resources. For instance, renting out your mining deposits to foreign companies. Or taking out loans, which then must be invested very wisely and only in developmental projects. Taxation is a redistribution of wealth in society and in a low Gini score nation like Pakistan, it will only cause further deterioration of economy and increase poverty.

 

[RescueRanger]

Title of the thread is misleading.

 

[Daneshmand]

Title of the thread is misleading.

Why?

 

[RescueRanger]

Why?

The project is on a go slow, China has not pulled out of anything yet!

 

[Daneshmand]

The project is on a go slow, China has not pulled out of anything yet!

Oh, then good for you. Let's see when it will come online.