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Can Pakistan Abandon the Taliban?

pakistani342

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Pakistan and Afghanistan are going to be locked in a hostile embrace from the looks of it -- good article (by an Afghan), here, excerpts below:

Yet Pakistan has been slow to respond and Afghans worry that Islamabad may not deliver. Islamabad has a long investment in the Taliban, primarily motivated by its desire to counter India’s influence in Afghanistan. For all of Ghani’s efforts to tilt Afghanistan’s foreign policy in favor of Pakistan, compromising relations with India, Islamabad does not seem impressed. Islamabad continues to accuse India’s intelligence service, the Research and Intelligence Wing of destabilizing Pakistan from Afghan soil. Given Pakistan’s long anxiety about India – despite Ghani’s efforts to dispel this fear – many in the Pakistani military “establishment” want to continue sheltering the Taliban.

...

As far as stability in Pakistan is concerned, the viable options – visible from Pakistan’s behavior – to restore peace in the country are expelling Afghan refugees and illegal migrants, permanently deploying troops in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), and repressing Baluch and Pashtun separatists inside Pakistan.

...

Should Pakistan opt for the Taliban over Kabul, the latter would be under pressure to walk away from the the recently signed (and controversial) Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) of intelligence sharing between Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). It would frustrate Ghani and encourage him to rethink his pivot to Pakistan. That frustration would cloud political and economic ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and encourage Ghani to turn to India.

In fact, going after the Afghan Taliban leadership would be a difficult task for Pakistan, as the country has already lost control of the group. But Pakistan must go after the militants. Instead of maintaining ties with non-state actors, Pakistan has an opportunity to work with Kabul. It is unlikely to come again: Other Afghan leaders would not be expected to make the overtures Ghani has. If Pakistan fails to act, anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghans – already high – will only rise.
 
It is unlikely to come again: Other Afghan leaders would not be expected to make the overtures Ghani has. If Pakistan fails to act, anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghans – already high – will only rise.

Which Afghans? Northern alliance? They had it all the way even before our support for Afghan Taliban. The thing I think is simple now, Taliban will do anything to pressurize everyone while on negotiations table, they will try to prove that no other solution to Afghanistan is viable without them being major part of it (And I think they have proven it so far). Key to peaceful Afghanistan ultimately lies with them and for them to join mainstream others would have to make compromises, a harsh reality but it is what it is, Ghani and company either accept Afghan Taliban as major stakeholders or let the country plunge into another fight between ISIS =======> Taliban =======> Afghan Govt =======> ISIS. And personally I would prefer Afghan Taliban over ISIS.
 
Which Afghans? Northern alliance? They had it all the way even before our support for Afghan Taliban. The thing I think is simple now, Taliban will do anything to pressurize everyone while on negotiations table, they will try to prove that no other solution to Afghanistan is viable without them being major part of it (And I think they have proven it so far). Key to peaceful Afghanistan ultimately lies with them and for them to join mainstream others would have to make compromises, a harsh reality but it is what it is, Ghani and company either accept Afghan Taliban as major stakeholders or let the country plunge into another fight between ISIS =======> Taliban =======> Afghan Govt =======> ISIS. And personally I would prefer Afghan Taliban over ISIS.

Well I think the situation in Afghanistan is quickly spiraling into where it will be unpredictable -- and Pakistan will not fare well unless it can do the three things that seem to be emerging from the policy elites in Islamabad and Rawalpindi:
1. Expel all Afghan refugees
2. Seal the borders
3. take on the BLA, etc.

If the worst does befall Afghanistan -- there might be a decade of suffering that awaits the Afghan people.

Solutions to the Afghan Pakistan impasse requires such radical departure from entrenched thinking that no one has the courage or stomach for on either sides of the Durand line safe for Dr. Ghani and 5 people in Pakistan. The devil you know seems to be the safer bet here.

The hostility the Afghan elites have sold their people towards Pakistan has painted them in a corner. I guess it is true the you can't keep snakes in your backyard - but the snakes may not end up being the Taliban - it might be the hatred for Pakistanis that has been fed to the Afghan people by their elites.
 
Well I think the situation in Afghanistan is quickly spiraling into where it will be unpredictable -- and Pakistan will not fare well unless it can do the three things that seem to be emerging from the policy elites in Islamabad and Rawalpindi:
1. Expel all Afghan refugees
2. Seal the borders
3. take on the BLA, etc.

If the worst does befall Afghanistan -- there might be a decade of suffering that awaits the Afghan people.

Solutions to the Afghan Pakistan impasse requires such radical departure from entrenched thinking that no one has the courage or stomach for on either sides of the Durand line safe for Dr. Ghani and 5 people in Pakistan. The devil you know seems to be the safer bet here.

The hostility the Afghan elites have sold their people towards Pakistan has painted them in a corner. I guess it is true the you can't keep snakes in your backyard - but the snakes may not end up being the Taliban - it might be the hatred for Pakistanis that has been fed to the Afghan people by their elites.

Pakistan's only complain seems to be Indian influence in Afghanistan and resulting hostility. If Afghanistan can guarantee that in actions and not just the words I think things may get better.
 
Pakistan's only complain seems to be Indian influence in Afghanistan and resulting hostility. If Afghanistan can guarantee that in actions and not just the words I think things may get better.

Yes but both Afghanistan and Pakistan have fragmented power centers.

There is talk of two factions inside the ISI with one supporting a rapprochement the Afghanistan and the other not. And, Afghanistan, well the less said the better I guess.
 
Yes but both Afghanistan and Pakistan have fragmented power centers.

Unfortunately in Pakistan's case we don't have competent Political leadership to capitalise and consolidate the chance they have gotten. They tend to be more self centrist and sometimes their personal wishes conflict with general public opinion and Rawalpindi.

In Afghanistan situation is blur the struggle is still spilling the blood.

There is talk of two factions inside the ISI with one supporting a rapprochement the Afghanistan and the other not. And, Afghanistan, well the less said the better I guess.

Two factions? The COAS and DG's approach and visits to Afghanistan seem clear in their standing.
 
Unfortunately in Pakistan's case we don't have competent Political leadership to capitalise and consolidate the chance they have gotten. They tend to be more self centrist and sometimes their personal wishes conflict with general public opinion and Rawalpindi.

In Afghanistan situation is blur the struggle is still spilling the blood.

What is being asked of the Pakistani leadership would be difficult even in a developed country like the US.

Two factions? The COAS and DG's approach and visits to Afghanistan seem clear in their standing.

Well I think Vikram Sood(? if I remember) wrote so in a recent article I think and sounds reasonable.
 
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