Can IAF afford to Cancel THE MMRCA

[Hello_10]

in 2007 MMRCA was suppose to cost $10 billion or 42000 core INR...
IN 2007 exchange rate was $42 rupees per dollar.

Today the 2 finalists are suggesting costs of $20 billion (give or take 5%) exchange today id over 50 rupees per dollar. Meaning indian tax pays will have to pay 100,000 core INR for the deal that was suppose to cost 42000 core inr.

THE DECISION should have been made today 26th DEC .

they have delayed it again MANY BELIEVE THE MOD are suggesting alternative should be explored that $20 billion is fat too much for a 4gen mmrca deal which will only arrive in 2014 and license production in 2015.
ITS TOO COSTLY & TOO LATE

Problem with India is, they want something in this MRCA which would have full tech and full production line like SU30MKI, LCA or PAK FA/ FGFA. But if they are already involved in 5th gen PAK FA/ FGFA and also LCA programs then they simply don’t need any new production line with full tech transfer for a 4th gen aircraft.

I would advise, they would simply buy around 63 Mig35/ Mig29VOT, dual engine with AESA radar and much improved multi role capabilities, and it would cost only around $4bn with loaded with missiles at around $65mil each and these 63 Mig35 can then form back boon of Indian front line with SU30MKI till 2024/25. And IAF will need only little improvements in their current infrastructure of Mig29s, (with having 68 Mig29SMT and 45 Mig29K), and Indian pilots may fly them within just 6 months of its delivery as they already have training on Mig29s. Or, I may hardly advise that IAF would buy 63 Rafale directly from France for cost of $100mil each with fully loaded with missiles for around $6.3bn only and as it already has infrastructure of Mirage2000, so IAF will need little improvements in the existing infrastructure of Mirage2000 also for Rafale. and Mig35 or Rafale can be delivered from even 2014 onwards. And this saving of around $13bn to $15bn would be spent to buy 100 more 4th LCA for cost of $35mil each, at around $3.5bn only, with six more next gen stealth submarines from Russia for rest of $10bn - $12bn, in addition to proposed $12bn tender for only six submarines in P-75I, I think. (this $12bn for P-75I includes building full infrastructure for these submarines also). and also here, in return of this big order of 63 Mig35 or 63 Rafale, IAF can try for tech trasfer of AESA radar from Russia or France for LCA program.

Rest, IAF will already buy around 350 stealth PAK FA/ FGFA which will come in production from 2018 onwards to cover loss of number of frontline aircrafts in MRCA.

NEW DELHI: The country's long-delayed 'Project-75India' to acquire six new-generation stealth submarines has gone into such a tailspin that it will take at least another two-three years to be even finalized.

With it taking six-seven years to build an advanced submarine, the Navy is faced with the chilling prospect of getting the P-75I boats much beyond 2020, leaving its conventional underwater combat arm without the requisite punch it will need to deter China and Pakistan.

Top defence sources say floating of the global tender or RFP (request for proposal) for the critical P-75I, which envisages manufacture of the six submarines with international collaboration for over Rs 50,000 crore, "is still several months away".

"The RFP can be issued only by mid-2012 at the earliest," said a source. Complex negotiations will thereafter follow with the foreign vendors (Russian Rosoboronexport, French DCNS, German HDW and Spanish Navantia) because the submarines have to be equipped with both tube-launched missiles for land-attack capabilities as well as air-independent propulsion for greater underwater endurance.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiat...dia/30345636_1_submarines-project-75india-mdl

 

[janon]

JSF/ F35 will cost at least $200mil each and its also not as much capable as to that of twin engine PAK FA of $100mil each only with full tech transfer to India. and with delays in F-35 programs, F35 and PAK FA both will come in production more or less at the same time.

I agree with the first statement, but I have to question the second. Russia hasn't exactly been known for delivering things on schedule, has it? Currently the F-35 is in a much more advanced stage of development than the PAK-FA is, of which only 3 prototypes exist. With the vast experience that the US has in stealth technology (B-2, F-117, F-22), and the fact that they have fielded a 5th gen fighter operationally, they are still having issues with the F-35. If you say that Russia will not have any such problems and will deliver the PAK-FA in the same time frame as the F-35, I would take that with a pich of salt. Also, the track record of the two countries in sticking to time schedules doen't inspire much confidence in that assertion. At this point, I can only go by the previous track record of the two countries, and the fact that the US has a lot more experience in this domain.

Of course, I'm not advocating the F-35 for the IAF, the PAK-FA is what it should go for. However, a decade or so from now, if the AMCA program isn't going anywhere, I might support an off the shelf purchase of the F-35 to fulfil the medium category. Without paying for any ToT etc.

 

[SQ8]

I see no reason for it.. they can delay it a bit..as the current GoI has cornered itself politically with its mistakes on the local front.
The BJP may announce it as policy to move the MMRCA forward ASAP..
When are the elections?

 

[Hello_10]

I agree with the first statement, but I have to question the second. Russia hasn't exactly been known for delivering things on schedule, has it? Currently the F-35 is in a much more advanced stage of development than the PAK-FA is, of which only 3 prototypes exist. With the vast experience that the US has in stealth technology (B-2, F-117, F-22), and the fact that they have fielded a 5th gen fighter operationally, they are still having issues with the F-35. If you say that Russia will not have any such problems and will deliver the PAK-FA in the same time frame as the F-35, I would take that with a pich of salt. Also, the track record of the two countries in sticking to time schedules doen't inspire much confidence in that assertion. At this point, I can only go by the previous track record of the two countries, and the fact that the US has a lot more experience in this domain.

Of course, I'm not advocating the F-35 for the IAF, the PAK-FA is what it should go for. However, a decade or so from now, if the AMCA program isn't going anywhere, I might support an off the shelf purchase of the F-35 to fulfil the medium category. Without paying for any ToT etc.

First, don’t talk about B-2 or F-117 as they were just failed attempt but then F22 was a success and you can see that whether its F35 or PAK FA or J20, all are similar to F22. And even right now US is fixing F35 and it may take at least 6-7 years more for them to bring it into production line. So, its obvious that PAK FA would also have some issues even if it will come in production. I remember one analysis by the Australian scientists on the future aircrafts and they found few things wrong with everyone and advised the Australian government to think again about F35, while Australia is supposed to have just 100 F35 with around 48 Super Hornet by 2030.

But as per the current testing of PAK FA, it is believed that PAK FA will be decisively better than both F35 and J20 in future while F22 will be put on back foot as F22 is a very old aircraft even if it has few unknown techs which make it attractive………..

Scientists warned defence department against Joint Strike Fighter

AN internal Defence study warned that the new Joint Strike Fighter would be a high-risk venture for Australia, admitting that the plane had weaknesses, including poor engine thrust that made it difficult to dodge missiles.
Cookies must be enabled | The Australian

 

[janon]

First, don’t talk about B-2 or F-117 as they were just failed attempt but then F22 was a success and you can see that whether its F35 or PAK FA or J20, all are similar to F22. And even right now US is fixing F35 and it may take at least 6-7 years more for them to bring it into production line. So, its obvious that PAK FA would also have some issues even if it will come in production. I remember one analysis by the Australian scientists on the future aircrafts and they found few things wrong with everyone and advised the Australian government to think again about F35, while Australia is supposed to have just 100 F35 with around 48 Super Hornet by 2030.

But as per the current testing of PAK FA, it is believed that PAK FA will be decisively better than both F35 and J20 in future while F22 will be put on back foot as F22 is a very old aircraft even if it has few unknown techs which make it attractive………..

How were F-117 and B-2 "failed attempts"? Their records speak for themselves. One combat loss for the F-117 and none for the B-2, both having participated in every major and some minor conflicts the US has engaged in since their induction. The only criticism I can think about B-2 is its high cost.

My point was not about how good or not the PAK-FA would be. I was merely questioning your assertion that it would be available in the same time as the F-35, knowing that the F-35 is at a much more mature stage of development, and judging by Russia's not so stellar record of sticking to time schedules.

Gorshkov, Nerpa, various frigates, and a host of other examples come to mind. Also, not technically delayed (or so I think), the 16 mig 29Ks ordered in 2004 have still not all been delivered, 7 years later. It is just not believable that the PAK-FA would enter production the same time as the F-35, of which at least 23 aircrafts exist today - ten of them production versions.

 

[Archie]

Well my opinion is that since the bids expire on 31st december

we could see MOD send letter of extension to 1 of the Eurocanards as default choice

Just as they did incase of shortlisting where they sent Extension letters just 1 day before expiry of Bids to EF and Rafale

Infact despite all sensibilities , if we are to believe the Rumours floating around south block
It seems that EF will be awarded the Extension letter at around 8:00 Pm on 31st december

 

[Archie]

I think that apart from mmrca we will also see F35 in Indian service

The reason being that India will not order more than 126 mmrca coz
It will take till yr 2022 to induct all 126 mmrca , and by that time India will begin producing FGFA after the delivery of initial 48 aircrafts from Russia

At that time India would be looking to replace 72( ie 50 Jaguar IS + 12 Jaguar IM + 10 Jaguar trainers) odd Jaguars and 51 Mirage 2000

with 126 mmrca and initial batch of PAKFA already having replaced 95 Mig27 and 63 Jaguars

While initial 3 sqds of Indian Built FGFA will be required to replace Mig 29 smt which will retire in 2026-28

Hence as per these calculations 150 odd AMCA are suposed to replace 120 odd Jaguars and Mirages begining 2025 and In future also replace Su30MKI built after Yr 2010 , which will begin retiring in 2040
Now incase there is a delay in AMCA , ie it enters service in 2035 and not 2O25

then you guys will Probably see an RFI for 72 FMRCA with option for another 36
in order to replace 120 odd Jaguars and Mirages , not to mention 40 LCA MK1 which would be useless in 2030
This deal will Probably go to F35A coz IAF would want fleet commonality coz IN will be operating 36-40 F35C abroad IAC 3

apart from 45 MIg29K and 22 N LCA being operated abroad Vikramaditya and Vikrant

 

[Hello_10]

How were F-117 and B-2 "failed attempts"? Their records speak for themselves. One combat loss for the F-117 and none for the B-2, both having participated in every major and some minor conflicts the US has engaged in since their induction. The only criticism I can think about B-2 is its high cost.

My point was not about how good or not the PAK-FA would be. I was merely questioning your assertion that it would be available in the same time as the F-35, knowing that the F-35 is at a much more mature stage of development, and judging by Russia's not so stellar record of sticking to time schedules.

Gorshkov, Nerpa, various frigates, and a host of other examples come to mind. Also, not technically delayed (or so I think), the 16 mig 29Ks ordered in 2004 have still not all been delivered, 7 years later. It is just not believable that the PAK-FA would enter production the same time as the F-35, of which at least 23 aircrafts exist today - ten of them production versions.

Sir,
We have been reading about Mig34, Su47, Su34 bla bla and if Mig35 also doesn’t get order then we would say that Mig35 was also a failed attempt. I mean, you may keep introducing new aircrafts on time to time but if you cant accept it as a ‘strength’ in your inventory, it would be said to be failed, I think. But have a look on F22 of US, a considerable amount of money is being spent by both Russia/ India and China to make a similar one and here PAK FA is said to be a better one than the F22. And these PAK FA and Chinese J20 is going to be back boon of Russia’s, India’s and Chinese main strength of defense in future. On the other hand, we have no news about either upgrade or copying of F-117 and B-2 by russia or China. I would call even Rafale a ‘Paper Tiger’ only as it hasn’t won even a single order till now. They have only hope which is India right now and then they would get good publicity of Rafale worldwide also otherwise this Rafale is going to be main strength of France only in future. And just compare Rafale with Mirage2000, too many customers it has and Mirage2000 is going to work in French/ Indian air defense and for many other countries at least till 2030/35.

And please update your information about F35, it’s full production is likely to be delayed at least till 2016-17, or may be by 2020 also. And even Russia has planned to make few of PAK FA’s by 2014 with continuing its flight tests till 2018, when it is expected to come in full scale production.

IN was very impressed with the performance of Mig29K and ordered 29 more recently in 2010 and its delivery is going on. And Gorshkov was planned to for delivery in 2008 and Nerpa in 2009, if I remember, but you are going to get them right now, on 3-4 years of delay. But have a look on Scorpion submarines from France, it were expected from 2008, when deal was signed in 2004, but even if you may get them by 2016 onwards, you will be lucky while its cost has also increased from $2bn to over $5bn. also, You still getting Nepra as top gun for IN otherwise you are going to be left with lesser submarines than to that of Pakistan also by 2014. You talked about F35 also, then you would know that F35 was planned since late 90s, enough publicity it gained during last decade, but its program is delayed as its not a reliable plane, (have a look on the link I gave before by comment of the Australian scientists). Many even says that US just cant make any more improvement in F35 so US and her customers would accept F35/ JSF as what it is right now.

More concerns in F-35 delay
According to preferred alternatives in a F-35 basing report, Cherry Point is not expected the first of its eight squadrons of F-35s until 2020
More concerns in F-35 delay | first, base, florida - Local - Havelock News

The independent Australian airpower thinktank the Williams Foundation has called for Australia’s acquisition of the F-35 JSF to be delayed to allow the aircraft to mature, in light of recent news that IOC (initial operating capability) for the US Air Force may now be as late as 2018.
Delay JSF purchase – Williams Foundation | Australian Aviation Magazine

 

[Dash]

I see no reason for it.. they can delay it a bit..as the current GoI has cornered itself politically with its mistakes on the local front.
The BJP may announce it as policy to move the MMRCA forward ASAP..
When are the elections?

In 2014, actually I see a little influence of GOIs political situation with MRCA. Like you said it might get delayed a little bit but acquisition costs are spread accross delivery so even a falling rupee will not have full impact but some. and FM has already cleared the deal.

 

[Hello_10]

I think that apart from mmrca we will also see F35 in Indian service The reason being that India will not order more than 126 mmrca coz
It will take till yr 2022 to induct all 126 mmrca , and by that time India will begin producing FGFA after the delivery of initial 48 aircrafts from Russia

At that time India would be looking to replace 72( ie 50 Jaguar IS + 12 Jaguar IM + 10 Jaguar trainers) odd Jaguars and 51 Mirage 2000

with 126 mmrca and initial batch of PAKFA already having replaced 95 Mig27 and 63 Jaguars

While initial 3 sqds of Indian Built FGFA will be required to replace Mig 29 smt which will retire in 2026-28

Hence as per these calculations 150 odd AMCA are suposed to replace 120 odd Jaguars and Mirages begining 2025 and In future also replace Su30MKI built after Yr 2010 , which will begin retiring in 2040
Now incase there is a delay in AMCA , ie it enters service in 2035 and not 2O25

then you guys will Probably see an RFI for 72 FMRCA with option for another 36
in order to replace 120 odd Jaguars and Mirages , not to mention 40 LCA MK1 which would be useless in 2030
This deal will Probably go to F35A coz IAF would want fleet commonality coz IN will be operating 36-40 F35C abroad IAC 3apart from 45 MIg29K and 22 N LCA being operated abroad Vikramaditya and Vikrant

India always proud to say that it has better Russian arms than that of China but you can’t say the same if you sign deal for F35 with US.

The Chinese prototype looks like it has "the potential to be a competitor with the F-22 and to be decisively superior to the F-35," said Mr. Fisher. The J-20 has two engines, like the F-22, and is about the same size, while the F-35 is smaller and has only one engine.

—Adam Entous in Washington contributed to this article

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Friendship with US will only give humiliation to India. First they have lost their edge on technology and second they want to engage India with their failures. In place of buying cheap tech aircrafts of US like F35/ JSF or even Super Hornet, India would better try for a naval version of PAK FA with Russia which may come in production by 2025/26, at the time IAC-3 will come in operation.

 

[tvsram1992]

The only best cost effective aircraft will be Mig35

 

[Rupeshkumar]

What will happen If MMRCA is cancelled and PAK FA is delayed by 5 years and AMCA is not complete by 2025?

 

[Major Sam]

None of those countries are going to threaten India militarily in our lifetimes, and none of them are hostile to India in any sense of the word. Each squadron of the IAF has more combat aircrafts than Sri Lanka's air force, to give an example. We have apprehensions only about two countries in the neighbourhood. And in a more realistic sense, only one country.

But yes, we need these planes to match our aspirations. The IAF of yesterday was interested in ensuring that pakistan can never have an upper hand against us. The IAF of today is aspiring to be more of a regional power, with (modest) power projection capabilities in the south Asian region, in keeping with the giant strides that the country is making in other fields. Larger players have larger interests.

Before you worry too much about India spoiling its money, think about how much money pakistan has in comparison, and how much it spends on its defence. Or any other country, for that matter.

thats why your 80% forces are on eastern border.... wat a joke by SUPER POWER INDIA

 

[DANGER-ZONE]

What will happen If MMRCA is cancelled and PAK FA is delayed by 5 years and AMCA is not complete by 2025?

It will happen THE WORST SCENARIO

 

[foxbat]

What will happen If MMRCA is cancelled and PAK FA is delayed by 5 years and AMCA is not complete by 2025?

Welcome to the forum

there are multiple other options to chose from.. Addnl flankers, M2K purchase, FMS purchase of Hornets or Lightning from USA etc etc