dichoi
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China's strategic interests in the South China Sea
1. After China produces about fifty Type 052C/052D/055 destroyers, we will probably see an attempt by China to close the South China Sea to American warships. Nobody likes foreign nukes in their backyard. This should happen around 2030-2035.
2. The South China Sea is the key to the peaceful recovery of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. At some point in the future (let's say 2025), China closes the South China Sea to Japanese cargo ships. This means all Japanese cargo ships (and possibly Japanese-bound cargo ships) will have to take a 10,000 mile detour around Australia.
Japan will either have to return the Diaoyu Islands or collapse economically. China can afford to wait.
3. The danger for Vietnam and the Philippines is that China might decide to punish them for all of the trouble they are causing over the South China Sea. China is famous for having a long memory. Around 2025, China may decide to close the South China Sea to Vietnamese and Filipino shipping.
Obviously, by siding with China, Cambodian interests will be protected far into the future in the South China Sea.
It is dream of China.