BREAKING! Kandahar has been captured!

[VCheng]

New ones as new mistakes? I dont think you ever set out to make mistakes to begin with, not intentionally at least. As long as a mistake, such as this one which costed 1.5 tr, 20 years of conflict and ended with an enemy takeover, is not repeated then yes the lesson has been learned for sure. But if after all of this we still think it was all worth it and should be repeated again - then I guess we haven’t learnt anything at all. Biden speech and the communication from US govt officials show that overall the 20 years spent in nation building and controlling a civil war with Military force was a blunder that shouldn’t ever be repeated, and in future the focus is solely going to be counter terrorisim using precise military means, intelligence, diplomacy, allies etc.

Like this?

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-08-19/poll-most-americans-think-the-war-in-afghanistan-was-not-worth-fighting

Poll: Most Americans Think the War in Afghanistan was 'Not Worth Fighting'
After 20 years in the country, most Americans say the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting, citing domestic extremism as more concerning than foreign.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Like this?

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-08-19/poll-most-americans-think-the-war-in-afghanistan-was-not-worth-fighting

Poll: Most Americans Think the War in Afghanistan was 'Not Worth Fighting'
After 20 years in the country, most Americans say the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting, citing domestic extremism as more concerning than foreign.

The way it was fought wasn’t worth it. You dont spend 1.5 trillion and 20 years on a single group. Handling of ISIS was much better and effective and without the mess we see in which civilians are falling off from cargo airplanes (I know its not the fault of the pilots, but visuals are very negative no matter what explanation you put out.)

Now at the end if we at least got a reformed Taliban who won’t repeat their blunders as well (harboring AQ types and other HR issues) - maybe a tiny bit more worthwhile now.

 

[VCheng]

The way it was fought wasn’t worth it. You dont spend 1.5 trillion and 20 years on a single group. Handling of ISIS was much better and effective and without the mess we see in which civilians are falling off from cargo airplanes (I know its not the fault of the pilots, but visuals are very negative no matter what explanation you put out.)

Now at the end if we at least got a reformed Taliban who won’t repeat their blunders as well (harboring AQ types and other HR issues) - maybe a tiny bit more worthwhile now.

So, in your view, what was the way it should have been fought?

 

[TheDarkKnight]

So, in your view, what was the way it should have been fought?

I did mention the handling of ISIS by US as a success. It was extremely effective and result oriented. Use of special ops and intelligence to degrade them and use strong regional allies to do the ground work as that is also in their national interest (this alignment of interest is where diplomacy takes lead). It made US even set differences aside and work with known enemies such as Iran. In Afghanistan case maybe emotions got hold of people due to 9/11.

 

[VCheng]

I did mention the handling of ISIS by US as a success. It was extremely effective and result oriented. Use of special ops and intelligence to degrade them and use strong regional allies to do the ground work as that is also in their national interest (this alignment of interest is where diplomacy takes lead). It made US even set differences aside and work with known enemies such as Iran. In Afghanistan case maybe emotions got hold of people due to 9/11.

And which "strong regional allies" would have done this ground work?

 

[python-000]

My memory goes back to listening to mujaheeden's on-the-ground battles in the soviet -Charlie war. You should have a real idea of what you are talking about. Ground realities are a total departure from what you talk about.
Prior to the intra-Afghan peace talks, the Taliban named an ethnic Hazara Shia as the shadow district chief. The hardline Sunni Taliban had been previously accused of persecuting the minority group during its tenure in power, so your claim becomes even more absurd.
Finally, we must remember that OBL was a guest on Afghan soil. It is important for you to know Afghan tradition. If you know what Omar told Americans, then you know he was ready to surrender OBL if they could provide any evidence of OBL's involvement in 911 However, according to American think tanks, the attack on Afghanistan could have been more beneficial to the Americans at that time than proving their point.

Watch this video and learn how Muharram is practised by Shia under their control

One thing that Afghan Taliban can do they can sent them back to Iran peacefully under there protection...

 

[TheDarkKnight]

And which "strong regional allies" would have done this ground work?

I wont say that every thing is exactly replicable in Afghan case. But for countering AQ and ISIS Iran and Pakistan would definitely be in. I would even go as a far as suggesting to work with Taliban a lot earlier than now - as we can see at least against ISIS, Taliban have been cooperating. But once US got bogged down in nation building and trying to create a National army and a democracy in a country like Afghanistan using military - that is where we start seeing a misalignment of interest with regional countries and getting stuck in a perpetual war.

 

[VCheng]

But for countering AQ and ISIS Iran and Pakistan would definitely be in.

Yes, that would be the perfectly logical choice.

Except that it has been a huge pity that the total loss of mutual trust made that impossible, specially the location of OBL's hideout and the treatment meted out to Dr. Afridi. Both USA and Pakistan need to chart out new directions now.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Yes, that would be the perfectly logical choice.

Except that it has been a huge pity that the total loss of mutual trust made that impossible, specially the location of OBL's hideout and the treatment meted out to Dr. Afridi. Both USA and Pakistan need to chart out new directions now.

First neither Pakistan nor Iran has ever been even accused of, let alone there being an existence of proof, for harboring or helping AQ and/or ISIS. The mistrust you point to is only because of diverging interests regarding Afghan Taliban and TTP -those issues are well known so no need to repeat. So the mistrust was never about OBL location, you wont find any critical statement from US officials regarding OBL being found in Pakistan, as a matter of fact I think Hillary and Obama admin bailed Pakistan out on this and cleared Pakistani state institutions of these accusations (some people may believe in that Seymour Herch story and ex ISI chief Durrani’s fiction - thats all crap) . Indians how ever have been shouting that Pakistan and ISI are even responsible for 9/11 and harbored OBL.

Now had US not even bothered with nation building and to develop a new regime from scratch, in this alternate world:

1) US would have select few bases in Afghanistan to only hunt AQ and global terrorists, until a reasonable compromise reaches with Taliban

2) US would still have bases and support in Pakistan

3) The whole mistrust issue or OBL, Afridi issue wouldn’t happen as badly.

4) A lot less money spent and less lives lost on all sides.

Down side of course is that Taliban would be in power or in control, but they are now anyway.

Dr. Afridi is being treated how any citizen accused spying and running a fake vaccination campaign for a foreign country would be treated. But I think IK has already hinted to a reasonable compromise on this anyway.

 

[VCheng]

you wont find any critical statement from US officials regarding OBL being found in Pakistan

And yet I know the damage has been done at all levels irreversibly, agree with the causes I have stated, or not.

But I think IK has already hinted to a reasonable compromise on this anyway.

I can also tell you that it is too late for that now.



Now both countries have to move on, as always, wherever their respective national interests take them. Next innings begin shortly.

 

[Goritoes]

Should, okay. Except that international geopolitics goes by its own rules, and not by childrens' storybooks.

You do realize that Geopolitics and wrong decision can cost lives, ask those families who lost their young sons in this stupid war in Afghanistan and many others which can and should be avoided?

 

[TheDarkKnight]

And yet I know the damage has been done at all levels irreversibly, agree with the causes I have stated, or not.

I disagree. The damage is mainly in public relations space, where you might see public opinion of Pakistan taking a hit (already battered), but I have yet to hear any official blaming or holding Pakistani state responsible for OBL hiding in a basement in Pakistan. One just need to look at so many wanted terrorists and drug cartel heads who are/have remained at large despite US resources.

Now both countries have to move on, as always, wherever their respective national interests take them. Next innings begin shortly.

Of course, with US forces not in Afghanistan anymore and Taliban in power, there is not going to be any complaints about any alleged Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan anymore. If we can ride through this difficult phase of forming an inclusive govt with acceptable HR metrics in Afghanistan, then there are so many venues of cooperation. Pakistan with its cultural and other links with Taliban can help them nudge towards a moderate approach with time - time is the key here as it means showing patience and giving space to the new govt in Afghanistan. Also CPEC and connectivity projects in Pakistan dont have to be China dominated, but they need to be countered with counter economic proposals, and not just threats and lectures about China.

On the other had the challenge will be to balance Indian whining for any increased cooperation with Pakistan - one thing has to be really understood here, India’s track record as a reliable and worthy ally is completely unknown. Pakistan may not be able to do much, but whatever is expected or agreed upon and once Pakistani interest are aligned, the alliance delivers on it - case to look at is anti Soviet alliance, and even help provided during WOT. Will India take a stand against rising China like Pakistan did against Soviets? My two cents opinion is that US may just be betting at the wrong horse just like ANA, that nation is not meant for it. They are good on economic front and that is it.

 

[VCheng]

You do realize that Geopolitics and wrong decision can cost lives, ask those families who lost their young sons in this stupid war in Afghanistan and many others which can and should be avoided?

And your point is?

I disagree. The damage is mainly in public relations space, where you might see public opinion of Pakistan taking a hit (already battered), but I have yet to hear any official blaming or holding Pakistani state responsible for OBL hiding in a basement in Pakistan. One just need to look at so many wanted terrorists and drug cartel heads who are/have remained at large despite US resources.

Let us agree to disagree then. The coming events will show what is going on.

 

[Goritoes]

And your point is?

Already made it in my previous posts.