BrahMos Storage Complex Under Construction in Halwara

[KrimesKaster]

Pakistan can also launch a massive pre emptive strike using its MRBMs, which cannot be intercepted by any system India has (except maybe the ageing Ghauri missiles).

However, both countries have to keep in mind that when launching a massive wave of nuclear capable missiles, it could easily be interpreted as a surprise strategic nuclear strike (against cities). This will result in accidental nuclear war breaking out.

Unless the Indian commanders have gone rabid - or the Indian military has failed miserably like it did post-balakot - they will not seriously consider risking their entire country just to take out some PAF bases and other targets.

The risk of accidental nuclear war is especially high with the increasingly belligerent statements the Hindu Nationalist Indian government is making. There is no reason to believe they will honour their NFU policy anymore. Hell, it's been nearly 80 years and they haven't been able to hold a referendum in Kashmir, as they "promised."

Trouble for Pakistan will be, the small distances and small reaction time involved. Unlike ballistic missile, a cruise missile like P-800 (original name for Brahmos) will fly much lower and will be detected quite late to do a strike on launch. You will only realize that missile has been launched when it has struck. So, after that you will have to decide if you want to retalite with nuke and invite nuke retaliation on your self or to continue with conventional.

 

[KrimesKaster]

The biggest problem India faces/Pakistan has advantages of - is that currently there is ambiguity on any launches of strategic systems. Try as India might Brahmos gets qualified as a strategic system and Pakistan was able to use that threshold to roll out Shaheen systems on the evening of 27/2/2019 in response to Indians considering using Brahmos.

That ASSUMES that Pakistan is able to detect a missile much before it strikes. It may be true for a ballistic missile but a cruise missile flies much lower than a ballistic missile and distance here are not massive. At mach 3, it will cover 450 KM in 7.5 minutes and you will detect it much later than a ballistic missile which you can detect when it goes up. So, very very likely you will only come to know about this missile has been launched when it actually hits your high value sites. This means at that point, you know what has hit you, a conventional or a nuclear weapon. So you cannot hide behind veil of strike on launch or launch on launch because you simply cannot detect launch and will not have enough time to react before missile hits.

No build up, no warnings - just boom. Otherwise in a gradual escalation like in 2019 they are fairly useless in terms of closing an offensive and only lead to more rapid escalation including nuclear.

Actually, even if you "go boom". You will not be able to do a finishing blow to India. Even after absorbing 100-300 nukes, India will survive, though it will be totally devastated. Remember, you have only 20-40 KT nukes.

At that point India will retaliate with its nuke and they have lot less to cover.

End result will be end of Pakistan and devastation but still continuation of India.

Now in 2019, India had declared a completion of military action after it unsuccessfully tried to hit places in KPK -- most likely deliberately. Funny thing is, for all the escalation, PAF deliberately launched glide bombs with fuses removed. It did not want to escalate at ALL. So 2019 was no measure of escalation capability of PAF or IA. BOTH were doing fake operation for popular demand in their countries. Had that Indian pilot not tried to pursue the escaping Pakistani aircraft, no missile exchange would have happened. It was a pure phoney conflict with no real fighting.

 

[GiantPanda]

That is a Pakistani - and I too assess the Brahmos as a threat and I am certain so does senior PLA command as well. That is why they plan for it and prepare countermeasures for it. It is characteristically Non-Chinese to underestimate a threat and not prepare and respect it. When this was not done you have your own history to looks for lessons learnt.

It is a cruise missile built with imported parts.

A cruise missile cannot go Mach 3 while following terrain mapping. If it needs go high then you are better with a ballistic missile.

As an imported missile with foreign parts, they cannot fire them off in continuous salvoes. They have several hundred but unlikely to be replenished.

Brahmos is a good missile (assuming the Indian copy is as good as the Russian) but presents the same problems to Pakistan as Pakistani ballistic missiles pose to India. No more, no less.

 

[JawadKKhan]

The challenge of supersonic cruise missile age is Big for smaller country which do not have depth in its geography that's us. Our entire airforce is concentrated on around 12 airbases and Most of Navy is concentrated in 1 base. In a worst case scenario, air & surface launched supersonic cruise missiles can reach most of the bases. Those missiles may only take 2-6 mins to reach most of targets with supersonic speed. Extremely less reaction time for PAF to get airborne. Natural benefit to india is depth, they can keep their assets much away. Many of their bases can remain out of our cruise missile ranges.

However, to do such sort of attack its very difficult to keep secrecy as build up can be monitored, But if done through purely airforce then perhaps secrecy can be maintained. The aircrafts will only be monitored as they come near LOC or breach it but it will be very short reaction time for PAF to get airborne. The PAF ADA fighters take 6 mins to take-off.. The missiles can reach bases before that time theoretically. Plus only 2-3 aircrafts per squadron are 24/7 ready for ADA. Rest of the airforce may not be able to get airborne at all if a worst case scenario happens ( missiles disabling bases / runways)

Pakistan's response may not be as effective as adversary would have already moved core assets further back in anticipation of counter attack. That's why best bet is enhanced situational awareness even in peace times and do the pre-emptive strike if there's a indication/intelligence of cruise missile attacks. The country doing first strike will do considerably more damage. Chances of such attacks may have increased after acquisition of S-400 by india giving them confidence to counter our attack. Overall chances of such attacks is very low as obviously it will start the full scale war. This can also lead to nuclear. As none of country would accept total loss of its assets without doing enough counter damage. Atleast tactical / smaller yield nuclear weapons maybe used.

 

[KrimesKaster]

A cruise missile cannot go Mach 3 while following terrain mapping. If it needs go high then you are better with a ballistic missile.

Its navigation is inertial with radar for terminal guidance. Its not a terrain mapping guidance. It also has satellite navigation for augmenting Inertial guidance. India has its own regional navigation system to provide it a secure positioning system.

However, to do such sort of attack its very difficult to keep secrecy as build up can be monitored, But if done through purely airforce then perhaps secrecy can be maintained.

Why? I mean how will you monitor missile but cannot monitor aircrafts?

The aircrafts will only be monitored as they come near LOC or breach it but it will be very short reaction time for PAF to get airborne.

Actually, with a range of 450-600 KM, they can launch from with in their territory.

 

[KrimesKaster]

As an imported missile with foreign parts, they cannot fire them off in continuous salvoes.

They don't need to. This missile is TOO EXPENSIVE (at few million dollars a piece) to be used to carpet bomb a city. It is for high value installations, like airbases or dams. This is actually an anti-ship missile primarily but it being used as a land attack cruise missile as India got no working subsonic cruise missile.

Brahmos is a good missile (assuming the Indian copy is as good as the Russian) but presents the same problems to Pakistan as Pakistani ballistic missiles pose to India. No more, no less.

Actually no. This one can be launched and by the time it is detected, very likely it will hit its target. This is unlike ballistic missile which will certainly be detected once they are rising up in near space or space.

 

[Sayfullah]

ISI should raise a super secret militia in India made up of loyal Indian Muslims or Pakistanis. When india is moving their assets these militia will attack them and destroy them. They’ll attack sensitive Indian sites in case of war. If we have a 5000 strong heavily armed secret militia in India they can ambush Indian army convoys and overrun and destroy sensitive bases. India can’t launch a single missile at us while their ammo depots, forward bases, army headquarters and, all critical infrastructure such as bridges major railways major highways are getting overrun and destroyed by our secretive militia. We should also target Indians in their strategic forces give them dawah try to make them convert to Islam and become a ISI agent for us. If we have many ISI agents inside their strategic forces we’ll know about their every moment which will help us set up ambushes for them with our militia.
This will also be much cheaper and much more effective then spending billions on missiles

 

[Sayfullah]

We need to support Nagaland, Assam, Manipur and Mizoram freedom fighters so if in the future events like 26 February happen again india will get a conventional response by us as well as see a major uprising in east India. India will have 2 options. 1) start war with Pakistan and risk losing all of east India and the 7 states there. 2) divert all resources to crush the rebellion there and leave Pakistan how it is. Even if india attacks us while trying to crush the rebellion a huge portion of their army will be stuck fighting separatists.

If Indians are busy fighting among them selves they will never look to us until situation is cleared in India. If we can make Indians fight among them selves for a couple years like a decade or two we can use the time to improve our economy then when Indians successfully crush the rebellions they’ll face a much much stronger Pakistan with a strong economy and conventional army whereas india will be worn out from all the infighting.
What war on terror has caused us we must do to india!

 

[SQ8]

It is a cruise missile built with imported parts.

A cruise missile cannot go Mach 3 while following terrain mapping. If it needs go high then you are better with a ballistic missile.

As an imported missile with foreign parts, they cannot fire them off in continuous salvoes. They have several hundred but unlikely to be replenished.

Brahmos is a good missile (assuming the Indian copy is as good as the Russian) but presents the same problems to Pakistan as Pakistani ballistic missiles pose to India. No more, no less.

I agree that it cannot fly nap of the earth like a subsonic missile so any Brahmos launch will immediately be detected and known. However it is capable of flying low provided the terrain in front of it is fairly flat. So it can launch, fly mach 3 at 500-1000 feet or fly a minor arc. That still makes it fairly dangerous in the terrain for the subcontinent.

However, it also means that it has limited options in terms of evasive maneuvers or off axis attack. The Babur or DH-10 missiles can not only fly complex flight patterns to their target, they can attack from multiple axis and(from what is publicly known information on the Babur as I do not know aboit DH-10) can hit a particular window on a building floor through image recognition.

 

[KrimesKaster]

We need to support Nagaland, Assam, Manipur and Mizoram freedom fighters so if in the future events like 26 February happen again india will get a conventional response by us as well as see a major uprising in east India.

How will you do that? Those places do not share a border with you.

I agree that it cannot fly nap of the earth like a subsonic missile so any Brahmos launch will immediately be detected and known.

Its meant to be sea skimming as it was originally an anti ship missile. So, yes, it should be able to fly 300 feet height easily. It need not use earth contours for guidance. at that height it will be too late to detect it when it hits. Sure as hell Pakistan does not have radar cover everywhere.

 

[SQ8]

They don't need to. This missile is TOO EXPENSIVE (at few million dollars a piece) to be used to carpet bomb a city. It is for high value installations, like airbases or dams. This is actually an anti-ship missile primarily but it being used as a land attack cruise missile as India got no working subsonic cruise missile.

Actually no. This one can be launched and by the time it is detected, very likely it will hit its target. This is unlike ballistic missile which will certainly be detected once they are rising up in near space or space.

Brahmos land test launches are picked up by Pakistani EW systems the second they launch .The problems lies with its hypersonic nature and the IR signature.

The problem you are referring to is protection from the earth’s curvature which provides little warning over a sea skimming onyx(brahmos).
however, in the land attack role and with the surveillance systems in place very few targets are on level terrain in Pakistan which will not require the brahmos to adjust altitude to avoid obstacles.
Any suggestions of being able to adjust direction are basically wishful thinking since at mach 2.5 even the smallest changes of direction end up occurring over several miles.
Physics cannot be beaten.

How will you do that? Those places do not share a border with you.

Its meant to be sea skimming as it was originally an anti ship missile. So, yes, it should be able to fly 300 feet height easily. It need not use earth contours for guidance.

Most cruise missiles that use terminal + satellite today don’t need contours anymore so long as accurate elevation data is available. However a mach 2.5 missile at 300feet over the ocean will never have to contend with an obstacle. Over land and in the terrain over the subcontinent it can have everything from several hills to power transmission lines that it will have to avoid and when it does it gets picked up.

 

[KrimesKaster]

Babur land test launches are picked up by Pakistani EW systems the second the launch. The problems lies with its hypersonic nature.

Because you know the launch site in advance.

however, in the land attack role and with the surveillance systems in place very few targets are on level terrain in Pakistan which will not require the brahmos to adjust altitude to avoid obstacles.

You can have a missile adjusting altitude to avoid ground and NOT use ground contour for guidance. India does not have a good working ground contour based guidance system on any of its missile systems.

Any suggestions of being able to adjust direction are basically wishful thinking since at mach 2.5 even the smallest changes of direction end up occurring over several miles.
Physics cannot be beaten.

Not exactly, the same missile does a good 'S' maneuver in its terminal flight. It can certainly adjust its direction and still return to its path. It has satellite and inertial guidance guidance. In terminal path, it uses radar seeker so yes, it can maneuver to avoid obstacle.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

That ASSUMES that Pakistan is able to detect a missile much before it strikes. It may be true for a ballistic missile but a cruise missile flies much lower than a ballistic missile and distance here are not massive. At mach 3, it will cover 450 KM in 7.5 minutes and you will detect it much later than a ballistic missile which you can detect when it goes up. So, very very likely you will only come to know about this missile has been launched when it actually hits your high value sites. This means at that point, you know what has hit you, a conventional or a nuclear weapon. So you cannot hide behind veil of strike on launch or launch on launch because you simply cannot detect launch and will not have enough time to react before missile hits.

Actually, even if you "go boom". You will not be able to do a finishing blow to India. Even after absorbing 100-300 nukes, India will survive, though it will be totally devastated. Remember, you have only 20-40 KT nukes.

At that point India will retaliate with its nuke and they have lot less to cover.

End result will be end of Pakistan and devastation but still continuation of India.

Now in 2019, India had declared a completion of military action after it unsuccessfully tried to hit places in KPK -- most likely deliberately. Funny thing is, for all the escalation, PAF deliberately launched glide bombs with fuses removed. It did not want to escalate at ALL. So 2019 was no measure of escalation capability of PAF or IA. BOTH were doing fake operation for popular demand in their countries. Had that Indian pilot not tried to pursue the escaping Pakistani aircraft, no missile exchange would have happened. It was a pure phoney conflict with no real fighting.

Degradation of Indian power would mean its other main rival taking advantage to push its own territorial agenda to fruition without fear of Indian resistance. India today faces real threats from 2 borders, not a single (Pakistani) border. Even without nuclear exchange, a two-way exchange of BMs/CMs would end in significant truncation of Indian military power. This would ensure utter rout of Indian forces in the North at the hands of the Chinese taking care of the most populous QUAD state. This thought alone should give a cause for a pause to the Indian state actors if they are rational. Apparently, they are not, with the type of rhetoric emanating from that country vis a vis talk of decapitation strikes.

 

[SQ8]

Because you know the launch site in advance.


You can have a missile adjusting altitude to avoid ground and NOT use ground contour for guidance. India does not have a good working ground contour based guidance system on any of its missile systems.


Not exactly, the same missile does a good 'S' maneuver in its terminal flight. It can certainly adjust its direction and still return to its path. It has satellite and inertial guidance guidance. In terminal path, it uses radar seeker so yes, it can maneuver to avoid obstacle.

Actually you can use elevation data for a rough terrain following system. Using a reference library for both elevation and position stored within the system. It will rely heavily on the accuracy of the data hence the image based recognition to boost that. But everything from the Tomahawk to the Taurus 350 are able to continue to target via elevation data and inertial guidance if their contour or image recognition fail.

Whether the site is know or not wouldn’t matter - there is no beam shaping involved in how it is detected by the sensor in question.

Interested as to how a S maneuver will avoid terrain features 5km across without the slightest change in its 300m altitude?

 

[Maarkhoor]

Yakont AKA Brahmos is a non-nuclear C.M so no need to worry hence we have many short range Nuclear capable B.M and C.M.....


no worries.... we have counters....

@SQ8

They have already used Brahmos option (27/02) after soar-g-kal strikes to deter us further humiliating them.