Bihar results will have far-reaching implications; BJP won't get majority in 2019: Shankar Sharma - The Economic Times
NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA's defeat in Bihar elections could well have far-reaching impact for the market, says Shankar Sharma, Chief Global Trading Strategist, First Global.
Sharma says the near-term outlook looks grim for India along with other emerging markets.
The real analysis one needs to do at this point is of possible implications of this outcome on the larger results, on large polls (Lok Sabha), which are still three-and-a-half years away, says Sharma.
"The market will start figuring out those outcomes and I think those are not looking good at all. Despite 282 seats, the government has not been able to push through a lot of its agenda in Parliament," he said. With these results, those are going to become even more difficult to achieve.
"I do not think we should be superficial in our analysis and just limit it to a Bihar assembly outcome and nothing matters beyond Bihar. I think Bihar matters a lot more than we are crediting it for," Sharma said.
He said the market really did not factor in 170 seats for JD-U and 60-odd seats for the BJP coalition. The effect of the Bihar election should not be read only as a Bihar assembly election results. "That would be a mistake. It is not Delhi assembly result or a J&K result. It has implications far beyond Bihar," he said.
He said Bihar election can have implications even on the 2019 outcome. Because Bihar and UP together put in this government into power with a majority, as about 100 seats came from these two states.
"Based on this outcome and possibly that of UP in 2017, it is highly certain that the BJP would not get to 282 number in 2019. It might stop at 250, might stop at 240, might stop at 200," Sharma says.
"Even other states where the BJP have won almost everything -- for example Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP - are unlikely to be maintained at those levels," cautions Sharma. "After five years, you would inevitably end up giving up some seats and some vote share."
Emerging markets outlook grim:
Sharma is of the view that the emerging markets overall are in a "great deal of strife". Emerging markets have lagged the current global rally as well.
India outlook looks 'poor'. And the outlook is very poor for commodities, which will impact the commodity-rich countries like Brazil or Russia or Indonesia.
Overall, Sharma said, emerging markets appear to be in a terrible shape. "If you talk to fund managers managing emerging market money, they will tell you that they are faced with huge redemptions, which again is translating into negative flows from countries like India."
"From here on till the end of the year, things look pretty grim," he said.