BBC: India growth figures baffle economists

[India defense]

no country can shoot the growth that much in a matter of just one year ... this is out of my mind how they do that, modi can get a fame from this but the ground reality wont change a bit and poor would become more poor, this is amazing the whole world is stunned by the growth rate , plus you have to know that they have to compete with china so this is short cut for that i guess .

growth has not shoot up but we were showing lesser value earlier which is corrected.......like IT industry was not given enough weight-age as its real contribution to economy.

 

[Tridibans]

no country can shoot the growth that much in a matter of just one year ... this is out of my mind how they do that, modi can get a fame from this but the ground reality wont change a bit and poor would become more poor, this is amazing the whole world is stunned by the growth rate , plus you have to know that they have to compete with china so this is short cut for that i guess .

And nobody does that overnight.
But for that you have to read before posting.

The revised figures show the previous years' growth to be more than 6% as compared to 5% reported. Hence, 7.4% now is not "shooting up" in any sense.

 

[nair]

Changing the scale you measure........ It used to be "Meter" before now it is "Feet"

 

[IndoCarib]

UK did the same last year

National Accounts changes: updated GDP growth and Balance of Payments estimates - ONS

 

[Levina]

The country's new way of calculating GDP has baffled analysts since its release last month.
India said the new formula is closer to international standards. But analysts say the new data does not correlate with other economic indicators, including industrial and factory production.

@DRAY
The formula issue has come up again.

 

[kaykay]

UK did the same last year

National Accounts changes: updated GDP growth and Balance of Payments estimates - ONS

Indonesia will do same this year.

 

[my2cents]

Indonesia will do same this year.

I believe BD changed its base year also.

 

[kaykay]

I believe BD changed its base year also.

And seems Pakistan did it 2 years back too.

Change of base year increases GDP by Rs557bn - thenews.com.pk

 

[Didact]

Everybody does it from time to time, and it is something IMF and WB encourage a lot, especially for under-developed, developing countries, where a large part of the informal (cash & non cash) transactions are not taken into account while calculating the GDP.

And beyond that, there are several areas that weren't as significant in 2004-05, and could be left out without significant loss in accuracy to GDP calculations, but are now large enough to have significant effect and thus must be taken into consideration.

We had a light discussion with our college's economics professor about this. He's a leftist btw, and I could swear he wants to pull atleast a few of us into his world view.

 

[MilSpec]

I have been tracking Econ data, I am so surprised to see numbers has been fanned to such extent. When all trade data, industrial output data, and infrastructure output data etc are not heading up, BJP gov still manage to accomplish Econ miracle.

Bravo Modi, fabrication data economy is admirable.

Please share your data that you have tracked. Also please post the time frame since you have been tracking this data.

 

[SrNair]

I have been tracking Econ data, I am so surprised to see numbers has been fanned to such extent. When all trade data, industrial output data, and infrastructure output data etc are not heading up, BJP gov still manage to accomplish Econ miracle.

Bravo Modi, fabrication data economy is admirable.

Such a moronic posts.
Base year change was initiated by UPA not NDA.Modi dont have anything to do in it.
We should have at least 9%+ GDP with these new data methdology for fruiyful growth.7.5% wont be enough.

So keep changing the equations and you will have changing figures. Okay.

Really ??
Good TT.Can I ask one question?
How can you calculate our present GDP data with 2004 base year where we had only 2500 Companies only ?Now we have 5 lakhs company . Food for thoughts .

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@DRAY, @SarthakGanguly, @ito, @Jackdaws

Despite the international media being highly skeptical of these numbers, it may surprise you to know that I personally don't have an issue with the numbers.

Developing countries in general have a large amount of economic activity that doesn't find its way into official calculations, so it wouldn't surprise me if India and other developing countries are growing much faster than official numbers would suggest.

Considering India's base GDP per capita is lower than the developing world average, the new numbers aren't surprising. Having a lower base naturally means it easier to achieve a higher percentage rate of growth.

Also Modi's economic policies so far have been very good, with some extra breathing room afforded by the drop in global oil prices (and thus less of a problem with inflation, allowing more growth boosting measures).

Though it is funny how Indians always question China's growth rate, despite our economic indicators going up.

We've never had a year where our economic indicators have been falling hugely while our GDP growth rate has been soaring. Food for thought.

 

[SrNair]

@DRAY, @SarthakGanguly, @ito, @Jackdaws

Despite the international media being highly skeptical of these numbers, it may surprise you to know that I personally don't have an issue with the numbers.

Developing countries in general have a large amount of economic activity that doesn't find its way into official calculations, so it wouldn't surprise me if India and other developing countries are growing much faster than official numbers would suggest.

Considering India's base GDP per capita is lower than the developing world average, the new numbers aren't surprising. Having a lower base naturally means it easier to achieve a higher percentage rate of growth.

Also Modi's economic policies so far have been good, with some extra breathing room afforded by the drop in global oil prices (and thus less of a problem with inflation, allowing more growth boosting measures).

Though it is funny how Indians always question China's growth rate, despite our economic indicators going up.

We've never had a year where our economic indicators have been falling hugely while our GDP growth rate has been soaring. Food for thought.

Your GDP was 10%+ in lastdecade.
We also need at least 9%+ GDP to become more effective.

 

[xyxmt]

Rate of growth is only going up and will keep increasing for a few years until there is some major global crisis.

Hindu rate of growth on Steroids

 

[SrNair]

Hindu rate of growth on Steroids

Use some burnol.Problem will be solve.