Azerbaijan offers Iraq access to Europe gas pipelines

[mahatir]

Well İ doubt that they would actually offer anything, but in case they would, it would probably be cheaper gas prices and a pipeline to Europe that goes through Turkey.
However İ doubt that Turkey would agree, since a İraq-İran-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan supply to Europe would be much more financially lucrative for Turkey. İt will mean complete independence for it's gas supply. And a stronger position in geopolitics towards Europe (İ would even bet my *** for it that they would immediately accept Turkey in E.U).

On a sidenote, İ have been always a strong believer that the reason for Qatar to be so heavily supportive for a regime change in Syria is the fact that they want a pipeline going to Europe. Where Syria is the only obstacle.

@al-Hasani , İ have to agree with @mahatir .
İ don't want to be too pessimistic, but İ think neither Mahatir or me and you would live long enough to see peace in ME.

Russia will have to give you something big because putin regime needs to keep prices at 100 dollars / barrel to balance their budget apart from the fact now they are entering into an arms race with Europe after ukraine event which requires putin to ensure gas prices stay high .

By concessions I mean Russia will have to give something big , in terms of Geo-political significance such forcing Armenia to give up occupied Azeri territory in return for not exporting huge sums of gas to Europe.

Turkey has cards that could bring its neighbours down to their knees gas and water are two geo-political ones.

Turkey will go ahead with the project to ensure its own gas supplies first , what I was talking about is supplying Europe , the Russians do not mind Turkey importing gas from central asia to full-fill its own domestic needs but they care about Europe for political and economic reasons.

This is the thing Russia cant force Turkey into something this is why I am saying they must be preparing for big concessions with Turkey to limit gas supplies to Europe especially that Iran also will be entering the gas market soon.

Well İ doubt that they would actually offer anything, but in case they would, it would probably be cheaper gas prices and a pipeline to Europe that goes through Turkey.
However İ doubt that Turkey would agree, since a İraq-İran-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan supply to Europe would be much more financially lucrative for Turkey. İt will mean complete independence for it's gas supply. And a stronger position in geopolitics towards Europe (İ would even bet my *** for it that they would immediately accept Turkey in E.U).

On a sidenote, İ have been always a strong believer that the reason for Qatar to be so heavily supportive for a regime change in Syria is the fact that they want a pipeline going to Europe. Where Syria is the only obstacle.

@al-Hasani , İ have to agree with @mahatir .
İ don't want to be too pessimistic, but İ think neither Mahatir or me and you would live long enough to see peace in ME.

Qatar cant have pipeline through Syria even if regime falls as Saudi Arabia from start opposed any pipelines passing through its territory .

Syria today is a big mess no one can put any pipeline there anymore ,it would be easily sabotaged and destroyed especailly that the whole border region between iraq and syria today is under islamists , kurdish and alqauda control also anbar province is pretty much under alqauda control , last week they closed down fallujah river cutting water supply to southern iraq.

Qatar other plan B was to invest in Turkish LNG infastructure from which it can pass its gas through Turkish pipelines to other European countries and now Qatar is isolated in Arab world and seeks close ties with Turkey to avoid regional isolation.

 

[al-Hasani]

@mahatir

How about a pipeline that goes from UAE/Eastern Province/Qatar through Northern KSA into Jordan and from there Syria and the Mediterranean Sea? Not that difficult and it would be a similar length. Just through sea to Greece and from Greece to the remaining parts of Europe.

Maybe even Israel one day if the relations get normal. Then no need for Syria as such.

Also a pipeline could be made from KSA into Egypt and from there all the way to Algeria/Morocco/Libya where there are existing pipelines connecting North Africa with Italy and Spain/Portugal (Iberia)

What do you say about that?

There are alternative routes.

Oman (GCC) could also make a pipeline directly to South Asia through the Arabian Sea. The closest distance to South Asia.

I mean there are plenty of alternative routes where Russia cannot gain any influence. All that is needed is stability, money (which is no problem as of now) and the will to built it.

It's more difficult for the former Soviet Republics to omit Russia from their plans since they are a direct neighbor. Us not so much.

Central Asia is not real a market anyway. Just a rival in terms of export.

 

[olcayto]

Russia will have to give you something big because putin regime needs to keep prices at 100 dollars / barrel to balance their budget apart from the fact now they are entering into an arms race with Europe after ukraine event which requires putin to ensure gas prices stay high .

By concessions I mean Russia will have to give something big , in terms of Geo-political significance such forcing Armenia to give up occupied Azeri territory in return for not exporting huge sums of gas to Europe.

Turkey has cards that could bring its neighbours down to their knees gas and water are two geo-political ones.

Turkey will go ahead with the project to ensure its own gas supplies first , what I was talking about is supplying Europe , the Russians do not mind Turkey importing gas from central asia to full-fill its own domestic needs but they care about Europe for political and economic reasons.

Actually this is exactly what İ ment. İf Turkey can become the energy corridor it aspires, it will not only make himself gas independent. The nations that supply the gas, as well as the nations that demand the gas will all become dependant on Turkey. İt will be a huge trump card for Turkey in future geopolitics. That is "if" we succeed .

This is the thing Russia cant force Turkey into something this is why I am saying they must be preparing for big concessions with Turkey to limit gas supplies to Europe especially that Iran also will be entering the gas market soon.

İf the goals stated above would be achieved, Turkey wouldn't even look to anything Russia proposes.


Qatar cant have pipeline through Syria even if regime falls as Saudi Arabia from start opposed any pipelines passing through its territory .

Syria today is a big mess no one can put any pipeline there anymore ,it would be easily sabotaged and destroyed especailly that the whole border region between iraq and syria today is under islamists , kurdish and alqauda control also anbar province is pretty much under alqauda control , last week they closed down fallujah river cutting water supply to southern iraq.

Qatar other plan B was to invest in Turkish LNG infastructure from which it can pass its gas through Turkish pipelines to other European countries and now Qatar is isolated in Arab world and seeks close ties with Turkey to avoid regional isolation.

Well, regarding Syria. You're right that no one would ever dream of building anything in Syria for next couple of decades. The only alternative route for İraq and İran has been destroyed. İraqi Kurdish gas will sooner or later flow through Turkey. However İ have no İdea what kind of aspirations or alternative routes the central government of İraq has regarding their energy recourse other then Turkey.

Whats up with the rift between Qatar and the rest of the GCC lately?

 

[al-Hasani]

But yes @olcayto Turkey is in a very good position in this game since constructing pipeline on land is much more cheaper and safer than under water.

Well, the problems with Qatar are based on petty differences really. Mostly Qatari support for the MB. Now that Hazzy997 is not around I won't have to discuss the MB with him anymore.

 

[Superboy]

Too bad Azerbaijan does not border Europe.

 

[olcayto]

But yes @olcayto Turkey is in a very good position in this game since constructing pipeline on land is much more cheaper and safer than under water.

Well, the problems with Qatar are based on petty differences really. Mostly Qatari support for the MB. Now that Hazzy997 is not around I won't have to discuss the MB with him anymore.

So what is the GCC goıng to do about Qatar?
When a body has two heads it won't function right. Either you chop the second head off, or you allow it to destroy the body.
Have you ever seen how the member states of the E.U act? They are like train-wagons linked to gether on a railroad.

Too bad Azerbaijan does not border Europe.

Can İ ask you this question, are you really serious with this comment?

 

[Superboy]

Can İ ask you this question, are you really serious with this comment?

Stating a fact.

 

[Azeri440]

Too bad Azerbaijan does not border Europe.

 

[Superboy]

Meh. The transportation costs are not even worth it.

 

[Azeri440]

Meh. The transportation costs are not even worth it.

seems they are
thus why western companies are investion 30billion+ into this project

 

[al-Hasani]

So what is the GCC goıng to do about Qatar?
When a body has two heads it won't function right. Either you chop the second head off, or you allow it to destroy the body.
Have you ever seen how the member states of the E.U act? They are like train-wagons linked to gether on a railroad.



Can İ ask you this question, are you really serious with this comment?

No, it's just a little misunderstanding/difference. It has been sorted now. Besides Qatar is just Qatar. A small but a very influential and rich country. Despite that it's not any regional power. They know that they cannot act bigger than they are.

 

[mahatir]

After what happened in Ukraine and Russians catching Europeans from their neck then yes certainly Europeans will offer Turkey the strategic support to end Tanap and other energy related projects but again joining EU is not what Turkey wants from Europe, Turkey wants far more than this , I guess you understand what I mean.

The problem with Qatar is relating to their support for MB in Egypt and Houthis in yemen , both of these groups have been used by USA before as a tool to abuse Gulf states so we simply want qatar to return back to its size by avoiding playing role bigger than her actual size.

Apart from fact were trying to push for a Gulf union that shall include Egypt and Jordan so we do not one someone from inside the GCC to disrupt such plans something Qatar has taken the role of doing for past 2 decades .

@mahatir

How about a pipeline that goes from UAE/Eastern Province/Qatar through Northern KSA into Jordan and from there Syria and the Mediterranean Sea? Not that difficult and it would be a similar length. Just through sea to Greece and from Greece to the remaining parts of Europe.

Maybe even Israel one day if the relations get normal. Then no need for Syria as such.

Also a pipeline could be made from KSA into Egypt and from there all the way to Algeria/Morocco/Libya where there are existing pipelines connecting North Africa with Italy and Spain/Portugal (Iberia)

What do you say about that?

There are alternative routes.

Oman (GCC) could also make a pipeline directly to South Asia through the Arabian Sea. The closest distance to South Asia.

I mean there are plenty of alternative routes where Russia cannot gain any influence. All that is needed is stability, money (which is no problem as of now) and the will to built it.

It's more difficult for the former Soviet Republics to omit Russia from their plans since they are a direct neighbor. Us not so much.

Central Asia is not real a market anyway. Just a rival in terms of export.

I was referring to Gas from central Asia and Iran to Europe , Egypt would never allow a gas pipeline from Iran to reach Europe , Saudi Arabia will not allow that .

As for qatar I said they cant pass a pipeline without Saudi Arabia approval , something that saudis did not agree on until qatar works within the GCC foreign policy framework and support Saudi led confederation.

The qataris rely on 80% of their foreign trade through saudi arabia and they know that an imposed blockade by saudi arabia would ruin their economy this is why they submitted to saudi threats .

I think if Saudi Arabia offers a strategic project for a pipeline to run from qatar through saudi arabia to Egypt for the European market in return for qatar joining GCC confederation would be a deal which serves saudi interests and gives qatar a face saving quit from arab world affairs.

 

[al-Hasani]

I think if Saudi Arabia offers a strategic project for a pipeline to run from qatar through saudi arabia to Egypt for the European market in return for qatar joining GCC confederation would be a deal which serves saudi interests and gives qatar a face saving quit from arab world affairs.

Interesting. But letting Egypt join would be a huge economic burden IMO. What about a possible pipeline from Oman to South Asia and the markets there across the Arabian Sea?

Or what about a future pipeline to the markets of Africa (Horn of Africa, Eastern Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa)? They are going to become a huge future market one day. With a population far exceeding 1 billion people.

What about the GCC and Turkey doing a pipeline through a future liberated Syria or Iraq if relations improve with them? Maybe a future Iraqi Kurdistan or Sunni Arab state in Iraq. I mean everything is possible in the ME.

Of course Qatar cannot do anything without KSA. They are landlocked with KSA and all their contact with the outside world comes mainly through KSA outside the sea route.

 

[mahatir]

The Iraqi goverment is looking actually building a pipeline through Jordan to export oil to outside world but yet again it will pass through Anbar which is outside central goverment control so they will only have to fix their problems with Turkey to get things going in addition to solving their water issues which require turkey to pass some more water from the dams .

Iraq tried many times to improve ties with Turkey , it is Just Erdogan has a habit of humilating al-maliki for some reason , I guess this would be solved once Iraq recognises Turkish influence over northern iraq through accepting the fact KRJ will export oil and gas through turkey without their approval .

 

[doritos]

Too bad Azerbaijan does not border Europe.

lol you got a +1 for that