It remains to be seen what NATO countries are thinking. Actually, there is no 'NATO' it is just USA and the rest are leeches fleecing America in one way or another while America gets a label of 'international community' umbrella term through them. But I digress.
But you are right: Global legitimacy will come from the Taliban behavior. A level of moderation will go long ways in securing the legitimacy. But survival is not dependent on the global legitimacy: As I posted a NY Times column in another thread today where US is cutting off funds to Taliban, the Taliban are NOT dependent on external funds just to stay in power. They have access to funds via border crossings and via the informal economy. Also, according to Pakistani journalist Saleem Safi, the Taliban cadre is disciplined enough to bear immense hardship if their Emir asks them to.
Bottom line .. some big public show inclusive of the recently-former Afghan leaders with the Taliban should be made where there is formation of a Govt of National Reconciliation with or without Ashraf Ghani. It will help the Taliban and Pakistan a lot.
I was reading another opinion piece and you might've come across it as well today. Which stated the main recognition that's needed is from Pakistan, China and Russia to recognize the Taliban led government. NATO legitimacy or recognition isn't necessary at this point, and will bring no benefit. Geopolitically speaking the US & Co., has been made redundant in the
Central Asian Great Game, and the main powers that matter as stated above is all that's needed to seal the deal.
In my opinion, the U.S. is in a panic mode vis-a-vis China who took the last 20 years to assert itself and learn from the American conflict and how to strategize just as they did after the 1st Gulf War; which forced the Chinese to rethink and organize their armed forces.
- Installed a PCR friendly regime in Afghanistan (basically lost the war no matter how many battles NATO won)
- Installed an Iran friendly government in Iraq
- Forced Russia into the Middle East vis-a-vis Sryia
- Forced Iran to spread its influence
- Forced China to flex it's muscle (and India was made an example of it)
Effectively created another block in the Middle East/Central Asian Region not U.S. friendly.
The U.S. and excuse my language fucked up it's geopolitical strategy in the region for decades to come.
@Meengla
I added more details.