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Artificial Intelligence-Prevision based modern Military Intelligence

The SC

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SCARE

The Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine (SCARE)


SCARE is the Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine is a piece of software that leverages a theory known as "geospatial abduction" to locate weapons caches in a counter-insurgency environment. The current version is "Combat-SCARE/Afghanistan" or C-SCARE/A and is designed from the ground-up to support operation in Afghanistan. This NSC project is currently OSD-funded. SCARE is the continuation of work originally started at the University of Maryland:
http://www.umiacs.umd.edu/research/LCCD/projects/SCARE/SCARE-ICCCD.pdf


TNDM

The Tactical, Numerical, Deterministic Model

TNDM) is able to forecast what is likely to occur in combat at least as well as any other combat model in use today.
Origins

The Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM) is an empirically based combat model with a database derived from historical research. It was developed by Colonel Trevor N. Dupuy, (USA, Ret.), from his concept, the Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis (QJMA), as presented in his two books, Numbers, Predictions and War (1979) and Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat (1987). The QJMA has two elements:

  1. Determination of quantified combat outcome trends based upon modern historical combat experience in more than 200 examples of 20th Century combat, mostly World War II and the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli Wars, and
  2. Extrapolation of historical trends to contemporary and future combat on the basis of developments and changes in firepower and mobility technology.
In developing the TNDM as a refinement of an earlier model based upon the QJMA, Col. Dupuy had the collaborative assistance of Dr. James G. Taylor (noted author of works concerning modern Lanchester-type models) in developing a new differential equation attrition methodology based on historical data. By a mathematical process akin to that of the Lanchester Equations, the TNDM attrition methodology provides results consistent with those which occurred in historical engagements. By being historically based, the methodology is more scientifically justified than any methodology not consistent with historical experience.

Description

The TNDM is a quick-reaction, inexpensive, computer-assisted mathematical simulation of air-land combat. It is suitable for planning, for analysis, and for examining a variety of combat situations, ranging from a small-unit, low-intensity combat action, to multi-day corps or army conventional battles.

The TNDM title is descriptive: It is a tactical battle model, although it can be used for planning and analyses of both historical and strategic campaigns. It is numerical; quantified inputs lead mathematically to quantified outputs. It is deterministic; any given set of inputs will always yield the same outputs. (It may be argued whether combat is essentially deterministic or stochastic, but a forecast must be deterministic, whether arrived at by a stochastic or deterministic process.)

The TNDM, designed for use on an IBM-compatible personal computer, is programmed in TURBO-PASCAL. It has been tested extensively in the United States and abroad. It has been modularly designed and can easily implemented with the architecture of existing time-step and event-driven combat simulations. The software allows the historically-validated TNDM attrition methodology to be extrapolated to small unit force-on-force dynamic situations in low-intensity and conventional combat. It can be applied to a variety of different analysis requirements, and as a combat "underlay" for designing and/or evaluating new combat systems/technologies.

Application

Planning and Analysis. Before the outbreak of the Kuwait or Gulf War, in January, 1991, planning analyses using the TNDM forecast casualty rates for US forces far lower than published predictions by any other model. In post-war assessments, adjustment of inputs to those actually experienced in the four-day ground war, yielded TNDM attrition results within 5% of the actual historical experience of US ground forces during the period February 24-28, 1991.

There are two principal reasons for this. The patterns of TNDM attrition and advance rates in replication of historical combat closely correlate to those of historical experience over six decades, during which weapons and mobility technologies underwent sweeping changes. A leading model in use by one of the military services cannot come close to matching the historical patterns. Furthermore, it is demonstrable that suppression effects of weapons on the battlefield are more important in battle outcomes than are attrition effects. Other than the TNDM, no model in use today in the United States or Europe even attempts to represent suppression.

Instruction. The TNDM can closely replicate the results of historical battles. Thus in historical and tactical instruction, it can be used to demonstrate the results of "what ifs?", possible alternative outcomes if changes are made in basic inputs or in tactical decisions.



RiftLand ABM

One of the major challenges of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is the validation of amodel. When modeling societies where experimentation is not practical or ethical,validation of models is inherently difficult. However, one of the significant strengthsof the ABM approach is the faithful implementation of a theory of behavior for rel-atively low-level agents and their associated environmental dynamics and then ob-serving high-level behaviors emerging from the low-level theorys implementation.That is the approach we have taken toward validating our model.A team of scientists at George Mason University and at Human Relations AreaFiles (HRAF) at Yale University has been working a few years on an agent-based model of a large area of East Africa, including validation-related fieldwork in 2010.The purpose of this project is to answer research questions on social dynamics, suchas internal conflict and responses to natural disasters and humanitarian relief. Thisfollows earlier validation efforts in the same project on other components

http://www.academia.edu/7508/Towards_Validating_a_Model_of_Households_and_Societies_in_East_Africa




CONDOR

Dynamic social network analysis tool
ICKN



W-ICEWS
World-Wide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System

As one of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E))’s Human Social, Culture and Behavior (HSCB) flagship programs, World-wide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (W-ICEWS) has developed and is deploying a comprehensive, integrated, automated, generalizable, and validated system to monitor, assess, and forecast national and international crises in a way that supports decision-making on how to mitigate them. W-ICEWS will provide Combatant Commanders (COCOMs), the IC, and various government agencies with a powerful, systematic capability to anticipate, track, and respond to stability challenges.

Capabilities

W-ICEWS’ is composed of 4 primary elements:

  • iDATA: The process that allows the provisioning of the models in near real-time from a variety of international, regional, national and local new sources (over 6000). More than 30 million news stories over the past 13 years are processed to extract .
  • iTRACE: provides situation understanding through analysis and visualization of event history trends and patterns generated by iDATA. Time series, map-based views, trends, relationship matrices, and other visualizations are provided with drill-down to underlying stories. Available in ISPAN on SIPR and JWICS.
  • iCAST: mixed methods modeling approach leveraging over 80 heterogeneous model types to forecasting major instability events of interest (EOI) worldwide with greater than 80% accuracy and recall. Will transition to ISPAN Summer 2013.
  • iSENT: Measures population attitudes and perception on issues, people, and events from social media through sentiment analysis from blogs, tweets, and Facebook. Sentiment propagation across the internet and identification of key sites and people in shaping opinion dynamics is also provided. Will transition to ISPAN Summer 2014.
W-ICEWS is undergoing operational test and evaluation by US Southern Command and Pacific Command (and available to all COCOMs), Intelligence Community, and other agencies and are currently being transitioned to US Strategic Command's Integrated Strategic Planning and Analysis Network (ISPAN) program of record.

World-Wide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System · Lockheed Martin
 
Artificial intelligence is needed to prevent genuine stupidity :D
 
It is interesting if there are other AI application or DSS (decision support systems ) currently employed for military use.
Has the current model algorithm undergone testing in different topologies ?

I do remember PA made some investments, and had people trained for this specific field;
I do not know what happened afterwards.

@Oscar can tell us some thing maybe.
 
It is interesting if there are other AI application or DSS (decision support systems ) currently employed for military use.
Has the current model algorithm undergone testing in different topologies ?

I do remember PA made some investments, and had people trained for this specific field;
I do not know what happened afterwards.

@Oscar can tell us some thing maybe.
For military intelligence and any other intelligence agencies , I think AI and DSS will be mostly used for analysis purposes rather than for decisions albeit for management purposed, maybe in logistics.
 
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