America's Gift to China

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

lol, think pragmatically. how can we debate when you respond to reading my post by going gung ho mode on me?

Calm down. Sit down with me, eyes to eyes, face to face, lets discuss without "nuke this, neutron that" lol.

Dont you want to explore the strategy aspect? Look at how Genesis and I are discussing...we differ but look at how much wealth of information we're sharing with each other. He's pragmatic, creative, yet brutally loyal to China. Now that's a true Han.

We dont need nuke or any bulshit1 neutron against Japan.

Japan's volcano time bomb- Nikkei Asian Review

 

[Genesis]

No doubt the Chinese have made impressive leaps and bounds in their island genesis programs, very impressive if i say so myself. I doubt the United States will fire the "first shot", usually they are a reactionary power, and will calculate the costs and benefits to any situation. It all comes down to : Will China fire the first shot ? If no, then great. If yes, then, well, you know.

Like I said, we have the overwhelming advantage in land mass, coast guard force(world's biggest coast guard vessel and the most), and a navy that have far more ships to spare in the region than anyone else, and quite possibly combined.

We are also a great economic power, itching to become first, so the economic factor is clear, we are also pivoting West to South Asia and Africa, it's not like we are stuck in SCS.

Taking all these into account China firing the first shot would be the worst move possible. We effectively fight when we are not ready, and fight when we are needed else where.

The question is, how can the US regain the upper hand. I see it in a couple of moves, one is to stop our island building or build more islands, both won't happen as you said. Or the US need to speed up the others economic development to free up more funds, or stop China completely in our development, she can't do the one and we won't let her do the other.

But if America can do those than she can actually do something, if not, it's all just talk.

You need to study the Japanese-American Chain Defense.

Examine the Islands in the Western Pacific as well as Eastern Pacific.

Ideally, to "break" the American Power, you have to break America's control of the islands in the Western , Central Pacific. This requires you to :

1) engage the combined 7th Fleet and take it out quickly
2) occupation of vital US defense assets ergo, Guam, Palau, Marianas, Tinian, Samoa, Caroline Islands.

Completing task #1 will be the hardest one. And note that the USN has 6 other Fleets. The PLAN needs to address all possible points.

Completing task #2 cannot be done unless you lay waste the US 7th Fleet. The US Pacific Fleet is a devil , she will engage in assymetric combat, and she has a voracious appetite and experience in this. I will say that.

I'm sure firing on American soil will result in nuclear war, if not close to nuclear war, and nobody wants a nuclear war. I mean nobody.

Taking out the 7th fleet or PLAN could also result in nuclear war, so no reason to risk THAT.

The way I see it is to take markets away from the US, which we are doing by competing in a more sophisticated segment of the market, while at the same time keep low end manufacturing out of US hands by sending it anywhere but there.

We will also continue to expand our naval capabilities, and at some point, I'm sure the Americans will question how effective one of their fleets will be in SCS when all of our fleets will be there. Hadrian's choice, really.

 

[Aepsilons]

The US is a reactionary power, my ***. Tell that to the people of Iraq and see if they agree with you. LOL The US practically brought war to them, strong-arm them, and forced them to kneel on their knee. LOL There is one thousand reasons the US can justify making a war without firing a shot. Making a war is very easy, my friend. What stop the US from creating a war with China is the fear of losing their hegemony in the aftermath.

Well, you have a point there, but if you do examine their military interventions , their etiology is of political reaction.

a) Spanish American War --- a reaction to the claim of USS Maine being sunk by Spanish Navy
b) WWI --- reaction to the sinking of the Lusitania
c) WW II --- reaction to Japanese strike on Pearl Harbor
d) Korean War --- reaction to North Korean invasion of the South
e) Vietnam War --- reaction to French loss at Bien Dien Phu, fear of manifestation of domino theory
f) 1st Gulf War --- reaction to Iraqi invasion of Kuwait
g) 2nd Gulf War --- reaction to 911 (and of course poor intelligence reports)

I'm not saying the Americans are innocent and perfect, they're not, their foreign policies are very calculating. But in regards to major combat operations, they usually are reactionary.

We dont need nuke or any bulshit1 neutron against Japan.

Japan's volcano time bomb- Nikkei Asian Review

We've been living on islands created by volcanoes for over 3000 years now. We're still here. And we will remain. It must be that bad since our population is already at 128 million ---- how in the world can that happen for a country with poor natural resources!?

lol

 

[xunzi]

Well, you have a point there, but if you do examine their military interventions , their etiology is of political reaction.

a) Spanish American War --- a reaction to the claim of USS Maine being sunk by Spanish Navy
b) WWI --- reaction to the sinking of the Lusitania
c) WW II --- reaction to Japanese strike on Pearl Harbor
d) Korean War --- reaction to North Korean invasion of the South
e) Vietnam War --- reaction to French loss at Bien Dien Phu, fear of manifestation of domino theory
f) 1st Gulf War --- reaction to Iraqi invasion of Kuwait
g) 2nd Gulf War --- reaction to 911 (and of course poor intelligence reports)

I'm not saying the Americans are innocent and perfect, they're not, their foreign policies are very calculating. But in regards to major combat operations, they usually are reactionary.

See, this is why you are very naive in the US political game. Have you ask yourself why Spain sunk a USS Maine to begin with? The US ALWAYS and will ALWAYS justify a war whenever they want to. If they can't start it, they will find a reason (like Weapon of Mass Destruction excuse in Iraq), just so they will bring war to that country for their own selfish gain and interest. The reason they can do that is they know there is no one that can check them. That is the tendency of a hegemon. Their overwhelming power allow the US to dictate war on other country. It is that plain simple. If Iran didn't have vast retaliation power, especially to their friends in Middle-east, the US would stomp them a long time ago in the name of protecting peace in the Middle-east. LOL

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

LOL! Oh you are very calculating...! Are you trying to make our American friends doubt Japanese intentions?!

Bad!

If American doubt Japanese intentions or not surely not our business . You Japanese are a very good teacher on how to stir up trouble between China and US, as Kissinger once said that Japan dream to see nuke exchange between China & US, this is clearly illustrated on how well American geopolitcal leaders are well aware of Japanese intention.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

U.S. Military Proposes Challenge to China Sea Claims - WSJ

it's very hard to say, maybe it's because I'm paranoid, maybe it's because I'm looking for drama, maybe it's becaause US actually said they would directly contest our islands in SCS.

"Defense Secretary Ash Carter has asked his staff to look at options that include flying Navy surveillance aircraft over the islands and sending U.S. naval ships to within 12 nautical miles of reefs that have been built up and claimed by the Chinese in an area known as the Spratly Islands."

"The U.S. military is considering using aircraft and Navy ships to directly contest Chinese territorial claims to a chain of rapidly expanding artificial islands, U.S. officials said, in a move that would raise the stakes in a regional showdown over who controls disputed waters in the South China Sea."

very difficult to say.

Maybe this wiki can explain the crux of the issue better

Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The United States and the People's Republic of China disagree on the legality of the overflights by U.S. naval aircraft of the area where the incident occurred. This part of the South China Sea comprises part of the PRC's exclusive economic zone based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

........

The PRC interprets the Convention as allowing it to preclude other nations' military operations within this area, but the United States maintains that the Convention grants free navigation for all countries' aircraft and ships, including military aircraft and ships, within a country's exclusive economic zone."
-----------------------------------------------------------

What the Chinese are doing is grabbing specs of land and extending their boundaries with the ultimate goal of blocking military flights through the South China Sea.

So when I say the U.S. has no interest in flying over your island I mean the main goal of the U.S. Is free military passage through the South China Sea (as is every other country's military in the region). The main goal is not to spy on some tiny islands you are building.

However if China's ultimate goal is to cut off military passage then of course everybody is going to scream about those islands and how they are not "legit" and how the 9 line thing is ridiculous. Of course a ruckus is going to be made.

If you claim your interest in the islands is only because the resources around them are deservedly yours.well that's something between you and your neighbors. But if that was the case why are you so rabidly upset over patrols the U.S. has been flying for the last 70 or so years. Do you think we are there to spy on oil rigs you want to setup or something?

 

[TaiShang]

Once China is finished with island build-up and effectively monitors the SCS, it will definitely launch certain image making programs. At this point, however we all have to bear with the sad souls.

Image can be restored or remade. Look how Vietnam has fallen in love with the US?

30-40 years of bad image is nothing in a nation's life.

What the United States is doing is to tap into the political economy of the region, what i mean is that she is attempting to cultivate greater defense partnerships (alignment) amongst the members including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei.

I am lost, how is sending warships is related to political economy? It is political, but, where is the economy? Port visits and more US marines visiting pubs and hotels?

 

[Genesis]

Maybe this wiki can explain the crux of the issue better

Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The United States and the People's Republic of China disagree on the legality of the overflights by U.S. naval aircraft of the area where the incident occurred. This part of the South China Sea comprises part of the PRC's exclusive economic zone based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

........

The PRC interprets the Convention as allowing it to preclude other nations' military operations within this area, but the United States maintains that the Convention grants free navigation for all countries' aircraft and ships, including military aircraft and ships, within a country's exclusive economic zone."
-----------------------------------------------------------

What the Chinese are doing is grabbing specs of land and extending their boundaries with the ultimate goal of blocking military flights through the South China Sea.

So when I say the U.S. has no interest in flying over your island I mean the main goal of the U.S. Is free military passage through the South China Sea (as is every other country's military in the region). The main goal is not to spy on some tiny islands you are building.

However if China's ultimate goal is to cut off military passage then of course everybody is going to scream about those islands and how they are not "legit" and how the 9 line thing is ridiculous. Of course a ruckus is going to be made.

If you claim your interest in the islands is only because the resources around them are deservedly yours.well that's something between you and your neighbors. But if that was the case why are you so rabidly upset over patrols the U.S. has been flying for the last 70 or so years. Do you think we are there to spy on oil rigs you want to setup or something?

I know exactly what the American "issue" is with this. You don't need to tell me, let me recap what you have been saying, seeing as you seem to have forgotten.

First you claim America is doing nothing new.

"The US has probably been flying patrols over the SCS for the last 70 years. Long before you showed any interest in playing in the sand of some islands. So we aren't "accomplishing" anything new.

Look at this google of "p3 orion south china sea patrol" where I set the date from 1965 to 1990

p3 orion "south china sea" patrol - Google Search"

Then after, I gave you the reasons why America might want to do some new tactics, you claim America is not.

"The U.S. Is not particularly interested in flying over this island thing you are building. We are only interested in flying the same route we have been doing for the last 70 years.

What makes you think we have an interest in flying over some island of yours?? Why would we do that?"

Now that I proven America does in fact want to test the limits, you give me a list of reasons why you are doing this.

Then I refer you back to the original topic, where I make the argument, this is good for China as it improves capability and preparedness in real "combat" situations. I support America pushing China harder and further.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I know exactly what the American "issue" is with this. You don't need to tell me, let me recap what you have been saying, seeing as you seem to have forgotten.

First you claim America is doing nothing new.


Then after, I gave you the reasons why America might want to do some new tactics, you claim America is not.

Now that I proven America does in fact want to test the limits, you give me a list of reasons why you are doing this.

Then I refer you back to the original topic, where I make the argument, this is good for China as it improves capability and preparedness in real "combat" situations. I support America pushing China harder and further.

What the? The U.S. isn't testing your limits. You guys are testing the limits of your neighbors by attempting to cut off military access to pretty much the entire South China Sea.

Who owns which island is not really important as long as in the end military access is not denied.

You'd probably create a land bridge from Shanghai to Australia just to cut off a hemisphere.

 

[Genesis]

What the? The U.S. isn't testing your limits. You guys are testing the limits of your neighbors by attempting to cut off military access to pretty much the entire South China Sea.

The US ISN'T trying to test our limits? Did you even read the WSJ article I posted. Also yes we are pushing them to the limit, that would be the point, to see how far we can go without resulting in war or forcing them to fire the first shot, and not give Americans an excuse to intervene as we didn't fire the first shot.

America can still argue for intervention in that scenario, but that argument and pause is all we need.

Who owns which island is not really important as long as in the end military access is not denied.

Let me spoil this movie for you, the military access, it ends.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Let me spoil this movie for you, the military access, it ends.

Well you finally see the light!..phew...took forever!
Glad you aren't pulling the excuse "oh the U.S. just wants all the resources in the SCS". You see of course the resource thing is just a smokescreen by China to hide their real intention.

 

[Genesis]

Well you finally see the light!..phew...took forever!
Glad you aren't pulling the excuse "oh the U.S. just wants all the resources in the SCS". You see of course the resource thing is just a smokescreen by China to hide their real intention.

What do you mean? China has always disagreed on what military access means in ECE, it's the Americans that keeps making it about the resources.

BTW, when did I ever say it wasn't about the military access? Or even China said it wasn't about the military access?