Elmo
RETIRED MOD
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RAND has brought out a paper on Al Qaeda and what it means to different people.
To read the entire paper, go to the RAND website and click here: Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory? | RAND
and down the entire PDF.
I am putting up the key-findings of the paper here, including a bit of the introduction....:
"In the minds of most Americans, al Qaeda descended from the heavens in Wagnerian-opera
fashion, on September 11, 2011, putting the organization today at the beginning of its second
decade. But al Qaeda was formally established in Peshawar, Pakistan, in 1988. It claims connection with assaults on American forces in Somalia and Saudi Arabia in the early 1990s,
declared war on the United States in 1996, and launched its terrorist campaign in earnest in
1998. By 2001, the struggle was already in its second decade.
Whether al Qaeda is in its third decade or third century matters little to its leaders, who
see the current conflict as the continuation of centuries of armed struggle between believers
and infidels, and who expect it to transcend their lifetimes.
This is unnerving to Americans, who seek precision in dating their wars. The American
Revolutionary War began when the Minutemen opened fire on advancing British troops on
April 19, 1775. The Civil War began when Confederate forces began shelling Fort Sumter on
April 12, 1861. World War II began with the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7,
1941. Americans seek equal precision in ending conflict....."
Key findings:
Lack of Consensus on al Qaeda's Current Condition
The Arab Spring
Al Qaeda's Perception
The Situation in Afghanistan
While reading through these findings you must remember they cater to the American audience and derive from American perception.
Any takers on writing a similar paper from the Pakistani perspective?
---------- Post added at 11:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:19 PM ----------
I think the best way to start would be to discuss the key findings here first...
To read the entire paper, go to the RAND website and click here: Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory? | RAND
and down the entire PDF.
I am putting up the key-findings of the paper here, including a bit of the introduction....:
"In the minds of most Americans, al Qaeda descended from the heavens in Wagnerian-opera
fashion, on September 11, 2011, putting the organization today at the beginning of its second
decade. But al Qaeda was formally established in Peshawar, Pakistan, in 1988. It claims connection with assaults on American forces in Somalia and Saudi Arabia in the early 1990s,
declared war on the United States in 1996, and launched its terrorist campaign in earnest in
1998. By 2001, the struggle was already in its second decade.
Whether al Qaeda is in its third decade or third century matters little to its leaders, who
see the current conflict as the continuation of centuries of armed struggle between believers
and infidels, and who expect it to transcend their lifetimes.
This is unnerving to Americans, who seek precision in dating their wars. The American
Revolutionary War began when the Minutemen opened fire on advancing British troops on
April 19, 1775. The Civil War began when Confederate forces began shelling Fort Sumter on
April 12, 1861. World War II began with the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7,
1941. Americans seek equal precision in ending conflict....."
Key findings:
Lack of Consensus on al Qaeda's Current Condition
- Al Qaeda's operational capabilities have been reduced.
- The architects of 9/11 have been captured or killed.
- Al Qaeda today is far more decentralized than it was ten years ago and far more dependent on its autonomous field commands, its affiliates, its allies, and its ability to inspire homegrown terrorists.
The Arab Spring
- The street protests that sparked uprisings across North Africa and continue in the Middle East are changing the political landscape. The turmoil offers al Qaeda some immediate opportunities, but for the long run, it is not clear how these events will affect either al Qaeda or U.S. counterterrorist efforts.
Al Qaeda's Perception
- Al Qaeda sees itself engaged in an existential struggle with Western infidels determined to destroy Islam.
- Al Qaeda sees the United States as weakened economically and weary of a costly war — as the Soviet Union was before its withdrawal from Afghanistan and subsequent collapse.
- Al Qaeda believes that its superior spiritual commitment will eventually defeat America's superior military technology.
The Situation in Afghanistan
- Al Qaeda's leaders attribute great importance to Afghanistan because the war against Soviet forces in Afghanistan provided al Qaeda's initial reason for being and because a Taliban victory is the best hope for al Qaeda's survival.
- Either the United States will develop a less costly military strategy to contain the Taliban for a longer time or it will accept the risks associated with withdrawal from Afghanistan, because the current deployment of forces is politically unsustainable.
While reading through these findings you must remember they cater to the American audience and derive from American perception.
Any takers on writing a similar paper from the Pakistani perspective?
---------- Post added at 11:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:19 PM ----------
I think the best way to start would be to discuss the key findings here first...
