Ind4Ever
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Watch out China ! India getting younger and stronger than you thought .
China vs India a mouth watering contest which grabs the attention of the world for a while now . In fact defence analysts belive this is going to be more interesting than India Pakistan cricket world cup match .When we thing about China a country first thing comes to our mind is there ever growing economic climate and massive military build up. on other hand we have India which is by at large known for its peaceful rise , enthusiastic and slow democratic process. That's a lot of different . Like comparing Flying dragons vs Slow but Massive Elephant . Each have there pros and cons.
Now this is history.Cause something strange is happening in both the nations. In India which is known for its slow and soggy way of dealing with defence deal have have the tide with fast tracked defence deals out of nowhere. In just 10 months India have cleared deals worth 1lac plus cr rupees just to meet its pending requirements. Excluding most recent "Master Stroke" as some may call it . The 36 or 2 squadrons of Advanced Multi Role fighter and putting an end to its unending negotiation process for MMRCA . Now this is not the only one but one in many ranging from Army equipments to Nuclear Attack submarines for the navy . India in a way making a statement that to tge world that times have changed .
On other hand in China , Which has started it military build up few decades ago has achieved what many Asian countries can't especially after WW2 . Masive military build up to showcase it's numbers as it's Rise as global power. But the problem is these build up started decades ago in very large numbers . And since its has been a long time now these massive build ups from the age of Soviets has to be replaced . As far as a nation's military capabilities are measured by their
- Numbers : Show of strength/Out numbering their adversaries.
- Technology : Advanced weapon systems. For high rate of Survivability , Accuracy etc
- Threat perception : Number of possible threats faced by a country.
All these are the factors to be taken into account before calculating a nations military might .
So in over all prospective right China is facing a huge competition in its own backyard . From its small neighbours to Ancient but with new lease of energy India are expanding thing Military powers in a very big way . Which was considered as impossible before a decade . Let alone South China Sea countries single handedly India is now entering into a state where it's Military power projection is given the Top Most priority . So with whole new dynamic leadership in the country and Economy is pegged to grow at 8-10% for the next 2 decades India will be the largest military spender in terms of acquiring new weapon system from across the globe. Thanks to its Image among the world powers who believes in Rise of India is for good for the humanity at large. So sharing a very large borders few are disputed rise of India which is really unstoppable will send Shocks and Awe in Beijing .
What are the implications ? :-
This is not a good time for China to have new Super Power in its backyard when it's economy is slowing down but not alarmingly low ? Ageing population of China has opened up a new nightmare for additional welfare schemes for its large population etc among others . But the most dangerous implications will start from its large massive fleet of Airforce which needed to be replaced with modern advanced technologies. when you look at the numbers of there jets the number are mind blowing for sure .
J16 - 6
J-11,J-11A,J-11B,J-11BS - 205+
J-10A,J-10S,J-10B,J-10C - 240
Su-27SK,Su-27UBK - 75
J-8B,J-8F , J-8H - 144
J-7,J-7E,J-7G - 528
JH-7,JH-7A,JH-7B - 120
Total of : 1318 (+/-) Combat Aircrafts
before we go into their review let's check Indian Airforce fleet as of now .
IAF: With immense real war experience for more than 60 years Notable Operations,World War II,Indo-Pakistani War of 1947,Congo Crisis,Operation Vijay,Sino-Indian War,Indo-Pakistani War of 1965,Operation Poomalai,Operation Pawan,Operation Cactus,Kargil War
Su-30MKI - 224 out of 272
Tejas MK1 - 1
MiG-29 (9.12B),MiG-29UPG - 58
Mirage 2000 IN -52
MiG21Bis
MiG21Bison
MiG21M/MF - 245
Sepecat Jaguar - 115
Total of 715 Combat Aircraft .
Am for sure There is no comparison at least in terms of numbers against these two forces . So coming to our point on Growing Indian economy and it's implications on China's ongoing military build up . The problem starts when India keep upgrading it's old fleets with latest upgrades which in fact very impressive in terms of Capability it brings together with much needed fleet strength . Limbering defence policies have slowed down its expansion and replacement process in a long run . There is a sayings in India : What ever happened is for good !
As right now even though it's facing with ageing Airforce fleet it has managed to to upgrade it's airforce . From Mig29 with impressive midlife upgrade , Jaguar with much more better capabilities envelop to Mirage 2000 to a whole new level of the fighter . These jet will now serve for its country for the next 15 years or so. Claverley Now India can replace it's mig 21/27 fleet with Advanced Multi role jets like tejas mk1/2 - Worlds best Rafale . In addition after taken are of light to medium multi role platform the impressive road for IAF is now taking shape on Heavy air superiority fighter class . Like upgrading it's 272 MKI to Super Sukois , induction of FGFA and AMCA. So the point to note is not just the technology and capabilities are been increased but for the first time matching it's number with next door neighbour China and Pakistan Combined . How ? When China too have its own some 1318 old fighter and planned to induct 5th generation jets too . So how it's possible ?
The implications of the new road map laid for Indian Airforce will push China to an extent where it can't retire it's old fleet. The number may be 1300 but obsolete fighters forms the large part . Nearly 792 aircrafts consisting of obsolete J7s and J8s which are substandard ripoff of old soviet Migs . Which drastically decrease it's strength to "526" Consisting of Su27 , J10s , Su27 ripoff J11 combat worthy.
where as India will have fully upgraded old fleet of
Jaguar -115 + 58 Mig UPG + 52 Mirage 2K IN + 272 Su30 MKI
totalling at 497 Combat worthy aircraft . Given the fact that 36 rafale has already been ordered this will put an impressive fleet of 533 combat aircrafts against PLAAF's 526 combat worthy aircraft.
What impress me most is Chinese ability to fore see the future shift in capabilities of both India and China they have already implementing the counter plans for many years now. Even though PLAAF need to replace 50% of its fleet the money need to implement them are very huge Chinese started to arm Pakistan with their resources .
A quick look at PAF inventory :
JF 17 Thunder - 49
F16 (From 1983) - 78
Mirage3 (1969-1990) - 75
Mirage 5 (1973) - 84
J7 (1988) - 183
Total of 469 . As per our calculation of combat worthy for modern warfare PAF is left with just 49+78 JF 17 & f16 s . Total of 127 Combat jets against 526 IAF their probable enemy .
And knows this two front war braging won't work in real terms . As India is not fool to fight PLAAF and PAF together with their current fleet .But can defend from either side with her immense exposure to the real combats in her past with one sided victories so far. Anyway other powers will lend her support in case of two front war which China or Pakistan won't be able to handle . So what Chinese are doing is to keep selling new jets to make Indian military planners to shift there focus from China to Pakistan . By doing so they think that they will get breather to strengthening and maintaing number superiority over India .
Plan worked so far but not anymore .Unexpected turn around in India policy making have shifted the gear to counter Chinese strategy at all costs. Recent weapons deals can give some insight into India's counter strategy. One might have enough resources , one might have enough Money to spend But the time needed to replace a Massive Obsolete fleet of PLAAF will take decades of hard work and continues fund raising through out the decade. So in terms of advanced technology , Numbers parity , Skills development , R&D is aerospace technology India is not only catching up but over taking China and Pakistan combined I'm the very near future . All India need is consist of 3 factors :
Namely 1) Home grown fighter programme to increase its number .Which it's has developed in years of hard work .As a result India now has most advanced Light Combat aircraft Tejas and improved variants. AMCA under development for its future strategy.
2) Technology to win a war against large enemy fleet. Which it's is getting very tech ToT from more advanced super powers from West to Russia.
3) Economy/Leader ship : Which in no doubt the best it can ever have . And so jump in economy is a major factor to fund all these programs.
So the picture is very clear . In the future rivalry between India and China is going to be very interesting. Which may not be in the favour of China which they had enjoyed till now . As Technology improves it hikes the price of the jets . This is not old 60s or 70s the time when jets are cheaper , labor cost was low and was produced in very large numbers . In today's modern air combat a fighter with advanced technology and destroy previous generation fighters from a stand off range and vanish from the skies before the enemy even know what just happened .
China vs India a mouth watering contest which grabs the attention of the world for a while now . In fact defence analysts belive this is going to be more interesting than India Pakistan cricket world cup match .When we thing about China a country first thing comes to our mind is there ever growing economic climate and massive military build up. on other hand we have India which is by at large known for its peaceful rise , enthusiastic and slow democratic process. That's a lot of different . Like comparing Flying dragons vs Slow but Massive Elephant . Each have there pros and cons.
Now this is history.Cause something strange is happening in both the nations. In India which is known for its slow and soggy way of dealing with defence deal have have the tide with fast tracked defence deals out of nowhere. In just 10 months India have cleared deals worth 1lac plus cr rupees just to meet its pending requirements. Excluding most recent "Master Stroke" as some may call it . The 36 or 2 squadrons of Advanced Multi Role fighter and putting an end to its unending negotiation process for MMRCA . Now this is not the only one but one in many ranging from Army equipments to Nuclear Attack submarines for the navy . India in a way making a statement that to tge world that times have changed .
On other hand in China , Which has started it military build up few decades ago has achieved what many Asian countries can't especially after WW2 . Masive military build up to showcase it's numbers as it's Rise as global power. But the problem is these build up started decades ago in very large numbers . And since its has been a long time now these massive build ups from the age of Soviets has to be replaced . As far as a nation's military capabilities are measured by their
- Numbers : Show of strength/Out numbering their adversaries.
- Technology : Advanced weapon systems. For high rate of Survivability , Accuracy etc
- Threat perception : Number of possible threats faced by a country.
All these are the factors to be taken into account before calculating a nations military might .
So in over all prospective right China is facing a huge competition in its own backyard . From its small neighbours to Ancient but with new lease of energy India are expanding thing Military powers in a very big way . Which was considered as impossible before a decade . Let alone South China Sea countries single handedly India is now entering into a state where it's Military power projection is given the Top Most priority . So with whole new dynamic leadership in the country and Economy is pegged to grow at 8-10% for the next 2 decades India will be the largest military spender in terms of acquiring new weapon system from across the globe. Thanks to its Image among the world powers who believes in Rise of India is for good for the humanity at large. So sharing a very large borders few are disputed rise of India which is really unstoppable will send Shocks and Awe in Beijing .
What are the implications ? :-
This is not a good time for China to have new Super Power in its backyard when it's economy is slowing down but not alarmingly low ? Ageing population of China has opened up a new nightmare for additional welfare schemes for its large population etc among others . But the most dangerous implications will start from its large massive fleet of Airforce which needed to be replaced with modern advanced technologies. when you look at the numbers of there jets the number are mind blowing for sure .
J16 - 6
J-11,J-11A,J-11B,J-11BS - 205+
J-10A,J-10S,J-10B,J-10C - 240
Su-27SK,Su-27UBK - 75
J-8B,J-8F , J-8H - 144
J-7,J-7E,J-7G - 528
JH-7,JH-7A,JH-7B - 120
Total of : 1318 (+/-) Combat Aircrafts
before we go into their review let's check Indian Airforce fleet as of now .
IAF: With immense real war experience for more than 60 years Notable Operations,World War II,Indo-Pakistani War of 1947,Congo Crisis,Operation Vijay,Sino-Indian War,Indo-Pakistani War of 1965,Operation Poomalai,Operation Pawan,Operation Cactus,Kargil War
Su-30MKI - 224 out of 272
Tejas MK1 - 1
MiG-29 (9.12B),MiG-29UPG - 58
Mirage 2000 IN -52
MiG21Bis
MiG21Bison
MiG21M/MF - 245
Sepecat Jaguar - 115
Total of 715 Combat Aircraft .
Am for sure There is no comparison at least in terms of numbers against these two forces . So coming to our point on Growing Indian economy and it's implications on China's ongoing military build up . The problem starts when India keep upgrading it's old fleets with latest upgrades which in fact very impressive in terms of Capability it brings together with much needed fleet strength . Limbering defence policies have slowed down its expansion and replacement process in a long run . There is a sayings in India : What ever happened is for good !
As right now even though it's facing with ageing Airforce fleet it has managed to to upgrade it's airforce . From Mig29 with impressive midlife upgrade , Jaguar with much more better capabilities envelop to Mirage 2000 to a whole new level of the fighter . These jet will now serve for its country for the next 15 years or so. Claverley Now India can replace it's mig 21/27 fleet with Advanced Multi role jets like tejas mk1/2 - Worlds best Rafale . In addition after taken are of light to medium multi role platform the impressive road for IAF is now taking shape on Heavy air superiority fighter class . Like upgrading it's 272 MKI to Super Sukois , induction of FGFA and AMCA. So the point to note is not just the technology and capabilities are been increased but for the first time matching it's number with next door neighbour China and Pakistan Combined . How ? When China too have its own some 1318 old fighter and planned to induct 5th generation jets too . So how it's possible ?
The implications of the new road map laid for Indian Airforce will push China to an extent where it can't retire it's old fleet. The number may be 1300 but obsolete fighters forms the large part . Nearly 792 aircrafts consisting of obsolete J7s and J8s which are substandard ripoff of old soviet Migs . Which drastically decrease it's strength to "526" Consisting of Su27 , J10s , Su27 ripoff J11 combat worthy.
where as India will have fully upgraded old fleet of
Jaguar -115 + 58 Mig UPG + 52 Mirage 2K IN + 272 Su30 MKI
totalling at 497 Combat worthy aircraft . Given the fact that 36 rafale has already been ordered this will put an impressive fleet of 533 combat aircrafts against PLAAF's 526 combat worthy aircraft.
What impress me most is Chinese ability to fore see the future shift in capabilities of both India and China they have already implementing the counter plans for many years now. Even though PLAAF need to replace 50% of its fleet the money need to implement them are very huge Chinese started to arm Pakistan with their resources .
A quick look at PAF inventory :
JF 17 Thunder - 49
F16 (From 1983) - 78
Mirage3 (1969-1990) - 75
Mirage 5 (1973) - 84
J7 (1988) - 183
Total of 469 . As per our calculation of combat worthy for modern warfare PAF is left with just 49+78 JF 17 & f16 s . Total of 127 Combat jets against 526 IAF their probable enemy .
And knows this two front war braging won't work in real terms . As India is not fool to fight PLAAF and PAF together with their current fleet .But can defend from either side with her immense exposure to the real combats in her past with one sided victories so far. Anyway other powers will lend her support in case of two front war which China or Pakistan won't be able to handle . So what Chinese are doing is to keep selling new jets to make Indian military planners to shift there focus from China to Pakistan . By doing so they think that they will get breather to strengthening and maintaing number superiority over India .
Plan worked so far but not anymore .Unexpected turn around in India policy making have shifted the gear to counter Chinese strategy at all costs. Recent weapons deals can give some insight into India's counter strategy. One might have enough resources , one might have enough Money to spend But the time needed to replace a Massive Obsolete fleet of PLAAF will take decades of hard work and continues fund raising through out the decade. So in terms of advanced technology , Numbers parity , Skills development , R&D is aerospace technology India is not only catching up but over taking China and Pakistan combined I'm the very near future . All India need is consist of 3 factors :
Namely 1) Home grown fighter programme to increase its number .Which it's has developed in years of hard work .As a result India now has most advanced Light Combat aircraft Tejas and improved variants. AMCA under development for its future strategy.
2) Technology to win a war against large enemy fleet. Which it's is getting very tech ToT from more advanced super powers from West to Russia.
3) Economy/Leader ship : Which in no doubt the best it can ever have . And so jump in economy is a major factor to fund all these programs.
So the picture is very clear . In the future rivalry between India and China is going to be very interesting. Which may not be in the favour of China which they had enjoyed till now . As Technology improves it hikes the price of the jets . This is not old 60s or 70s the time when jets are cheaper , labor cost was low and was produced in very large numbers . In today's modern air combat a fighter with advanced technology and destroy previous generation fighters from a stand off range and vanish from the skies before the enemy even know what just happened .
