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Although they lie to Ukraine that they can beat Russia with the given weapons the aim is not to beat Russia. They want to just bring a condition to push Russia to use tactical nukes to not to be the first user of tacticals after ww2 nuclear bombings. For example a large foothold in Kherson...

The situation in Krynky has two stages with first stage being holding the already established positions especially in residential areas by Russia around Krynky and overall south Kherson area. This stage is more urgent now. Krynky expansion can be controlled by air-artillery bombardment but since...

Guided shells to hit moving targets are laser guided ones like krasnopol. Smaller quadcopter drones dont have the capability to laser designate targets but slightly larger ones(fixed wing glider types) as you said can laser paint the moving target and the vehicle has no choice other than...

Jamming needs to be continiously developed but it is a backup temporary solution as counter measures develop in a similar speed. Jamming is also a radio source and once it is detected it can be taken out by mortar artillery etc especially if it is a static ecm vehicle. Russia uses cheaper Orlan...

After Avdiivka operational encirclement is complete some of the reservers can be allocated to more risky positions like Kherson. More troops can be allocated to Kherson after total control of Avdiivka is completed. The most risky issue currently is more Ukranians crossing Dnieper and expand...

Kerch bridge can be targeted with Atacms but it cannot be out of service. It is not easy to bring down bridges with a few hits. There are barriers and extra precautions against sea drones as well so we are not hearing about Ukranian starlink sea drones attack these days on the bridges. Ukranian...

The weakest fortified region controlled by Russia is currently south Kherson region. Support and logistics is quiet difficult there too. There is the Dnieper river as a natural barrier against Ukraine operations however continious small breaches show a pattern of a larger operation that is about...

Yes and additionally partial control in air close to conflict areas with untouchable fab-500+ pinpoint strikes. Russian forces are more aware now about the capabilities of Ukraine and plan their attacks accordingly. Especially Ukraine's signature capability of artillery precision strikes that...

Possibly the missile is this one mentioned in the video. It is a good idea to make a jet engine interceptor missile against drones but when they are close to the border they can be shot down my faster sam systems of the enemy like Patriot. They can still be used to good effect over Lebannese...

The move to take coke plant in coming days would be difficult. Ukraine has the means to inflict high casualties by detecting infantry by fpv drones and guiding cluster artillery attacks accurately over them. Also artillery guided by fpv drones can hit moving targets like attacking apcs and tanks...

In order to take the chemical plant some softening up operation might be suitable. Coke plant is not a residential area but a fortification. It would be suitable to soften this target with white phosphorus ammunition and then enter. Wp munition will also block vision and soldiers inside cant use...

There are news that Coke plant south of Terricon started to be pushed by Russian forces as they already control the railway line. The map can change quiet a bit depending on the recent developments. As you said artillery control may require too much ammo. Russia needs to use artillery/mlrs...

Pincer is a high risk high return move. It depends on Russian preparedness but artillery control on main roads is an enough pincer to choke and tap out Avdiivka area and Ru is somewhat close to that. Full encirclement is not necessary. There can be tunnels though which need to be detected and...

It will be claimed as Ukranian pilots did the F16 stunt. Base can be in Romania or Poland. There is no time to train Ukranian pilots so others can be used and stay silent during the operation.Russia does not want the conflict to expand to other especially nato countries as well like Poland. If...

East of Dnieper is a zone where Ukraine mostly uses Buk Osa and similar. Regarding the costs an operation to Kiev might require many Ruaf planes but Avdiivka and Robotyne are not Kiev. There are logistics costs for Ukraine to deploy any system there. Even if they deploy Nasams for example...

Nasams has 50km range. iris-t is about 30km. Russian basic Fab-250 is 80km. What Russia lacks is sufficient elint-pods on planes and sufficient high altitude drone production(Orion). When radars are silent some number of Orion can enter to hunt for Ukranian artillery even if they are downed by...

Pincer movement will enclose around 15k Ukranian troops in Avdiivka. If they are taken prisoner then it will force Zelensky to the table. Maybe that was the Russian planned risk to be taken instead of house to house long time consuming costly conflict like in Bakhmut. But the mistake prior was...

If Ukr sams are decimated enough high altitude Uavs(Orion,Mohajer-6) can do wonders just like in Karabagh conflict with immunity from anti air attacks. Especially these are open plain fields and Ukranian vehicles like artillery will be exposed. One exception is just like Atacms secret delivery...

Reports claim that Ukraine pours a high portion of its troops to Adviivka front including spec ops forces. Russia can expect Ukranian fpv drone attacks and artillery strikes and should prepare-dig in accordingly to newly established positions. If Russia gains air control soon by destorying Ukr...

Not too many defensive equipment is transferred to Syria from Hmeimim base as of now. Usa can use these kinds of excuses to detect and strike the defense items sent by Iran to Syria and Labennon.These should be concealed or in terms of air defense items first deployed close to Russian ones then...