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different region. Algeria is mostly open plains/desert with very little cover. There's no forests to hide in so drones/arty combo will decimate any infantry holding ground.

it's not hard to create account using their parent's IDs to get around this.

modern war is mostly about drones, arty, and long range fires. Items Algeria seems to be heavily invested into. Possibility of a regional war due to coup in Niger. Much will depend on the position of Algeria being strongest military in the region.

China has a multi-billion dollar contract to drill for oil, build a refinery, and build a pipeline though Nigeria to transport that oil. All that is on hold now. Same could be said of all EWCOAS nations. Especially the ones threating to invade Niger.

i'm asking what you think is the most likely outcome in 1 month. we can come back to this thread and 1 months later check. lol what is this...

They are behind on tech.

No. China will not benefit. Uranium prices will increase and winners will be Uranium producers in Kazakhstan and Nambia.

Niger's export customers will pressure Nigeria to allow exports. After Russian sanctions, Niger uranium is not replaceable by Western nations. Also Nigeria is lead by a deeply unpopular president. Don't seem likely he can sell a invasion of Niger to his military.

So what is your prediction? The coup will fail?

I don't trust you to honor your bet bro...

Bet for bragging rights then

Even by your logic, the coup enjoys significant support in the military. It's pointless to argue about civilian support since since there has not been any polls.

So you betting or not?

I admit I was wrong with Sudan. Didn't realize government forces was so weak even with air support. But I'm open to betting coup leaders will stay in power in a month.

If there is risk of civil war then it means the coup enjoys significant support right? I believe in logic.

The army is also behind the coup. This coup enjoys significant (popular?) support from Niger citizens. Pointless to argue now, everything will become clear in a week.

Doesn't matter. No one will invade Niger to reinstall disposed president. If you think otherwise then maybe we can start betting pool.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/burkina-faso-and-mali-warn-against-foreign-intervention-after-niger-coup "Niger’s neighbours say any intervention to restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum will be considered a ‘declaration of war’ against them."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/burkina-faso-and-mali-warn-against-foreign-intervention-after-niger-coup