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Wrong conclusions being deduced from Azerbijan Armenia conflict

Zarvan

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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
 
Nov 18, 2014
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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
AZ AR conflict was not stand alone, but a progression of conflicts where drones have been used and in each circumstance proving their worth.
It is only a matter of time before more advanced AA systems will become redundant in front of cheap drones with both qualitative and quantitative edge. Drones are the future, they're purpose built/versatile, more importantly a wartime munitions that can easily be discarded or lost in action.
 

CrazyZ

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I have made the point that air power alone can not win a war many times. Effective ground forces are also required. Drones do add new dynamics to air warfare but they can not get you a win with out strong ground forces (especially against unconventional adversaries). There are many examples of this, Yemen war, Afghanistan war, in parts of the Syria and Libya conflicts....where air power/drones alone failed to get a decisive victory. The Azeri combined both Air power (drones) with good ground forces and achieved a decisive victory.

Even looking at Zarb-e-Azb, once PAF was unleased to work with PA, TTP was crushed.....despite receiving covert assistance from NDS, RAW, and rogue elements of the CIA with sanctuaries in Afghanistan protected by USA/NATO/ANA forces. Zarb-e-Azb started about the same time as the Yemen war yet Pakistan achieved a clear victory while GCC is stuck in a quagmire to this day. Pakistan used strong air power combined with strong ground power. GCC relied largely on air power. Same with USA/NATO in Afghanistan. Lessons are clear.
 
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Itachi

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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
US is already working on making drones as good as fighter pilots, if not better. Drones can be anywhere from as small as 1-inch microdrones to as big as an airship.

Loyal Wingman Drone:

1606599471724.png


Skyborg Program:


Like @CrazyZ said, the future is strong ground and air force units, along with the navy ones. And whoever has a potent drone fleet will have an edge.

A Glimpse of the Future:

1606599801391.png
 

MastanKhan

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I have made the point that air power alone can not win a war many times. Effective ground forces are also required. Drones do add new dynamics to air warfare but they can not get you a win with out strong ground forces (especially against unconventional adversaries). There are many examples of this, Yemen war, Afghanistan war, in parts of the Syria and Libya conflicts....where air power/drones alone failed to get a decisive victory. The Azeri combined both Air power (drones) with good ground forces and achieved a decisive victory.

Even looking at Zarb-e-Azb, once PAF was unleased to work with PA, TTP was crushed.....despite receiving covert assistance from NDS, RAW, and rogue elements of the CIA with sanctuaries in Afghanistan protected by USA/NATO/ANA forces. Zarb-e-Azb started about the same time as the Yemen war yet Pakistan achieved a clear victory while GCC is stuck in a quagmire to this day. Pakistan used strong air power combined with strong ground power. GCC relied largely on air power. Same with USA/NATO in Afghanistan. Lessons are clear.
Sir,

You are incorrect in your analysis---.

The modern day air war decimates the enemy's assets and sends it to stone age---.

Don't build your palaces on other people's destructiuon---.
 

CrazyZ

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Sir,

You are incorrect in your analysis---.

The modern day air war decimates the enemy's assets and sends it to stone age---.

Don't build your palaces on other people's destructiuon---.
True for conventional opponents. Not for unconventional opponents. Air power is important but it must be combined with ground power for a decisive victory. Aircraft can not control or police territory. Ground forces are important especially against unconventional opponents for this function.
 

Lincoln

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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
It's hard to say.

True that Armenia has a weak airforce, but their air defence systems are not the worst. S-300 is considered a pretty good system.

On top of that, the entire battlefield is a plane area, there are no obstacles to radars from detecting these drones.

Even more to that, if you followed the news during the war, Armenia downed a fair number of Azerbaijan-i drones. About 17 were reported I believe.

Adding more, Azerbaijan used old, retired planes to bait out air defence systems and find their locations, which they then busted using drones.

So the problem isn't that Armenia had a really bad air defense system, it was okay. Azerbaijan simply employed better tactics to deal with it.


Now in Pakistan-India zone, you have to take into account a lot more factors.

1. How many drones can an air defence system handle. Because, that's the whole point of a swarm of drones, it's to overload defence systems and take out valued targets.

2. Mountainous terrain. This is an obstacle to radars, and something with as small of a signature radius of UAVs, they can avoid detection.

If both countries can avoid radar detection with entire squadrons of planes a couple kilometers into the borders, then it's wrong to say drone swarms have no potential in the theatre.

The entire world is moving onto a nee generation of aerial combat which isn't self piloted jets, but drone swarms and assistance drones for pilot fighters. There's a reason for that. It's a big and scary thing for air defence systems.
 

Qutb-ud-din Aybak

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Few take away from this war.

Drones are slow moving and are difficult to shoot down.
They are cheap and swarming can takeout air defences.
Drones are more stealthier than fighter aircrafts.
Drones can create psychological impact on enemy.
Drones with proper jamming equipment can disrupt enemy communication.
Drones can help in accurate artillery strikes.
Drones with proper AI software can easily takeout enemy hidden armour.
Drones designed to takeout air defences are very effective due to its smaller and stealthier designs.
 

Zarvan

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It's hard to say.

True that Armenia has a weak airforce, but their air defence systems are not the worst. S-300 is considered a pretty good system.

On top of that, the entire battlefield is a plane area, there are no obstacles to radars from detecting these drones.

Even more to that, if you followed the news during the war, Armenia downed a fair number of Azerbaijan-i drones. About 17 were reported I believe.

Adding more, Azerbaijan used old, retired planes to bait out air defence systems and find their locations, which they then busted using drones.

So the problem isn't that Armenia had a really bad air defense system, it was okay. Azerbaijan simply employed better tactics to deal with it.


Now in Pakistan-India zone, you have to take into account a lot more factors.

1. How many drones can an air defence system handle. Because, that's the whole point of a swarm of drones, it's to overload defence systems and take out valued targets.

2. Mountainous terrain. This is an obstacle to radars, and something with as small of a signature radius of UAVs, they can avoid detection.

If both countries can avoid radar detection with entire squadrons of planes a couple kilometers into the borders, then it's wrong to say drone swarms have no potential in the theatre.

The entire world is moving onto a nee generation of aerial combat which isn't self piloted jets, but drone swarms and assistance drones for pilot fighters. There's a reason for that. It's a big and scary thing for air defence systems.
S 300 is useless if you are not trained enough on how to operate them.
 

MastanKhan

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True for conventional opponents. Not for unconventional opponents. Air power is important but it must be combined with ground power for a decisive victory. Aircraft can not control or police territory. Ground forces are important especially against unconventional opponents for this function.
Hi,

There will be no more " decisive victory " any more---. You will go in---decimate your enemy and leave---.

A nation destroyed is a nation abandoned---. Nobody there to help rebuilt---.

Understand the modern warfare young man---.
 

Trango Towers

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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
Totally disagree..
Drones are cheap effective...you talk about airforce and strong air defences in pak India scenario. Drone swarms can knock out airfields and aircraft on the ground. Thats just one example. Thats the future. I do agree that not everything can be done by drones but dismissing them as a major change is classic miscalculation
 

Fawadqasim1

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After going through several articles, videos, and documentaries about recent Azerbaijan Armenia conflict. I have realized that people are making fatally wrong assumptions about this war. That presumption is about drones changing the entire modern day conflicts. Yes drones can be affective in some wars but not in all cases. Specially in conflicts of bigger powers.

In Azerbaijan vs Armenia, drones were very effective because Armenia had miserable air force, and even worse air defence systems. Also their soldiers were clearly not trained enough to utilize whatever resources they had. That was one major reason drones used by Azerbaijan proved to be so effective. This same scenario can't be applied in case of let say Pakistan and India. Where both countries have seriously strong air force backed by powerful radars and growing air defence systems.

To conclude even for next several years drone won't be playing much role in wars of bigger powers. Yes they would play much bigger role in anti insurgency operations, also if your enemy is way weaker, or the place you want to target is in a country which lacks good air force and radars, drones will play a role. Apart from that drones are not going to be that effective in other battlefields.
Absolutely sir but these are let's say first generation drones the next gen drones are and will be more stealthy intelligent and autonomous and their time is upon us
 

Trango Towers

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True for conventional opponents. Not for unconventional opponents. Air power is important but it must be combined with ground power for a decisive victory. Aircraft can not control or police territory. Ground forces are important especially against unconventional opponents for this function.
Drones soon will control and patrol.
Loitering drones with machine guns flying or hovering low is round the corner
 

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