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World Bank: Bangladesh’s GDP, without reforms, may drop below 4% by 2035

Black_cats

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World Bank: Bangladesh’s GDP, without reforms, may drop below 4% by 2035​

The three obstacles were declining trade competitiveness, a weak and vulnerable financial sector, and unbalanced and inadequate urbanization

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Dhaka Tribune
UNB
September 25, 2022 8:36 AM

World Bank in a study found three obstacles to Bangladesh’s economic reforms.

Without massive reforms, Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) could fall below 4% by 2035, it said.

The three obstacles were declining trade competitiveness, a weak and vulnerable financial sector, and unbalanced and inadequate urbanization.

If these three obstacles can be addressed, development will get a boost and growth will be more sustainable, the study noted.

According to the global lender's report, Bangladesh has been one of the top 10 fastest-growing countries in the world for several decades.

But there is no reason to be complacent. Economic boom is never a permanent trend, it also said.

Growth in fast-developing countries is always at high risk. Few countries have sustained high growth for long periods. Only one-third of the countries in the top 10 continued to experience high growth over the next decade, the report said.

World Bank has made some recommendations to sustain economic growth. For example, to maintain growth in exports, products should be diversified.

Apart from this, Bangladesh’s tariff rate is higher than other countries, due to which the trade capacity is decreasing.

Regarding the banking sector, World Bank said, it will play an important role in future economic development.

Although the financial sector has improved in the last four decades, it is still not sufficient, the report said.

On the other hand, urbanization is essential for Bangladesh’s next development stage. Attention should be paid to balanced urbanization, the report said.

Ahsan H. Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh and a former IMF official said: “I fully agree with what the World Bank has said. Our first-generation reform is done. The second and third-generation reforms were to take place. But we have not yet initiated the second-generation reforms.”

Bangladesh is gradually falling behind other countries, including Vietnam.

“With the current policies, we cannot take per capita income to $12,000. We have no alternative to human resource development,” he added.

 

bluesky

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World Bank: Bangladesh’s GDP, without reforms, may drop below 4% by 2035
World Bank must be taking lessons from Razakar countries. When our brats talk about 1000 billion dollars in GDP by 2030 surpassing Singapore, WB talks about a 4% drop by that time.
 

Homo Sapiens

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Without reforms, Bangladesh’s GDP could fall below 4% by 2035: WB study​

Without reforms, Bangladesh’s GDP could fall below 4% by 2035: WB study


The World Bank (WB), in a study, has found three obstacles to Bangladesh's economic reform. Without massive reforms, Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) could fall below 4% by 2035, it said.

The three obstacles are -- declining trade competitiveness, a weak and vulnerable financial sector, and unbalanced and inadequate urbanization. If these three obstacles can be addressed, the development will get a boost and growth will be more sustainable, the study noted.

According to the WB report, Bangladesh has been one of the top 10 fastest-growing countries in the world for several decades. But there is no reason to be complacent. Economic boom is never a permanent trend, the report said.

Growth in fast-developing countries is always at high risk. Few countries have sustained high growth for long periods. Only one-third of the countries in the top 10 continued to experience high growth over the next decade, the report said.

WB has made some recommendations to sustain economic growth. For example, to maintain growth in exports, products should be diversified.


Apart from this, Bangladesh's tariff rate is higher than other countries, due to which the trade capacity is decreasing.

Regarding the banking sector, WB said, it will play an important role in future economic development. Although the financial sector has improved in the last four decades, it is still not sufficient, the report said.

On the other hand, urbanisation is essential for Bangladesh's next development stage. Attention should be paid to balanced urbanization, the report said.

Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh and a former IMF official said, "I fully agree with what the WB has said. Our first-generation reform is done.
"The second and third-generation reforms were to take place. But we have not yet initiated the second-generation reforms."

Bangladesh is gradually falling behind other countries, including Vietnam.
"With the current policies, we cannot take per capita income to $12,000. We have no alternative to human resource development," he added.

 

mb444

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Anything "Could" happen.....but somethings are right in front of you and should not be ignored. BD economic growth requires systemic changes and application of rule of law, otherwise this is about as far as we are ever going to go.
 

Ssan

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I have to say that I am impressed with how Bangladesh has focused on long term blockers like population growth rate, literacy, etc unlike Pakistan.

I am sure y’all will be fine long term. The current spurt of growth is not a result of BAL govt but fundamentals of your economy. Focus on education, especially female literacy and low pop growth rates.

The one thing that is a concern is how BAL has gangrened all your state institutions. Bhutto did something similar to ours in 70s and we never recovered from this. Gangrened state institutions can be blockers for long term growth.
 

fallstuff

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I have to say that I am impressed with how Bangladesh has focused on long term blockers like population growth rate, literacy, etc unlike Pakistan.

I am sure y’all will be fine long term. The current spurt of growth is not a result of BAL govt but fundamentals of your economy. Focus on education, especially female literacy and low pop growth rates.

The one thing that is a concern is how BAL has gangrened all your state institutions. Bhutto did something similar to ours in 70s and we never recovered from this. Gangrened state institutions can be blockers for long term growth.
Thank you, but the fundamental of finance is in dire straits.
 

fallstuff

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Why though? your debt obligations for the year are covered by two months of remittances. You literally are sitting pretty.
The bad loans are in billions of dollars.
Folks with connection are just using importers to send hard currency out of the country and what not.
 

BananaRepublicUK

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The bad loans are in billions of dollars.
Folks with connection are just using importers to send hard currency out of the country and what not.

No. The crooks are getting terrible rates at the “curve market”.

Honest people are getting very good exchange rates from the BoB.
 

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