What's new

Will Pakistan and India survive the next 50 years ?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Baibars_1260

FULL MEMBER
Sep 12, 2020
1,614
0
1,417
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Thread is in response to this question:
Getting a bit off topic but in your opinion, where do you think Pakistan's geostrategic and security settings will be in the next 50 years? I think that is the million dollar question.
It is off topic and we can have a separate thread on that. My short answer is both India and Pakistan are unlikely to survive as nations for the next 50 years so the question is moot. We will have nuked ourselves into the stone age. Pakistan is in extreme danger of being annihilated by a savage and extremely vicious regime that is grossly ignorant of the
repurcussions.
 
Last edited:

Baibars_1260

FULL MEMBER
Sep 12, 2020
1,614
0
1,417
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
I personally believe in 50 years time we will have negligible contact with those to the east of us and we will be more fully integrated with China. I also believe that Afghanistan will more integrated with us. Just my humble predictions so I could be completely wrong.
I am afraid there are much more ominous portents on hand :
In 1972 were in pretty good shape to ensure our security, and by 1974, we had completely redefined ourselves as a nation.

Here are the differences in the enemy we face between the last 50 years and now:

1. In 1970s the regime in power in India was a non-religious one, under the umbrella of the Soviet Union. The Congress party headed by Indira Gandhi ( actually the General Secretary was Dev Kant Baruah but that doesn't count) was backed by the Communist Party of India and a number of minor centrist parties.

2. Indira Gandhi and the ruling elite wanted a center stage leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement. India was looking for a regional big power status and the Soviet backed Non-Aligned Movement was one way to assert India's foot print.

3. The Soviet Union was looking for a foothold in the region ; basically control over Afghanistan and West Pakistan to gain access to the Persian Gulf. India was a useful tool to achieve its ends.

4. The Soviet Union had been inimical to the presence or existence of Pakistan since the late 50s. The CIA flew U2 spy planes over the Soviet Union from Peshawar. After shooting down a Peshawar based U2 over its territory in 1960 , the USSR made a thinly veiled nuclear threat to Pakistan as a response. There was not much the USA could have done to protect Pakistan, and would certainly not have entered into a nuclear war on its behalf. Pakistan stopped the U2 flights but this did nothing to assuage the dislike the Soviet Union had developed for Pakistan. As a response it started arming India encouraging it to dismember Pakistan.

5. At that time India's hatred towards Pakistan was against the Pakistani state and government, not against the people of Pakistan ( at least not so much ).
The reason for India's hatred was as follows:
5.1 India wanted to project itself as a modern secular progressive state to its Soviet ally as well as to the Western world. The existence of Pakistan as an Islamic state or "Homeland for the Indian Muslims " , was a reminder that the anti-colonial struggle India triumphantly displayed to other newly independent and Non- Aligned nations, had gone horribly wrong. If the Indian political establishment could not win the trust of its largest minority, then India could not lecture to other countries, or lead the nations emerging from colonial domination to become secular democracies. Pakistan therefore had to go. It had to be defeated militarily, and brought back into the Indian Union.

5.2. For the Soviet Union secularism was the first step towards socialism. It was in the interest of the Soviet Union that India remained a secular state. If India turned religious it would be a godsend to the USA and NATO, who had long preferred religious fundamentalism over communism. The Communist Party of India which the Soviet Union dreamt would one day come to power, would never survive in fascist religiously fundamentalist state and would meet the fate of the German Communist Party in the 1930s.

5.3. Internally the stability of the Congress government was frequently threatened by right wing fascist political outfits such as the Jan Sangh and RSS, who hated the secular stance as much as they hated Muslims both in India and Pakistan (including Bangladesh). .
Partition of India had happened just two and half decades earlier. A secular India with a contented and secure minority was the last thing the RSS wanted. The RSS wanted a Hindu Rashtra ( Nation only for majority Hindus) by killing off, forcibly converting or driving out Muslims from all of old British India ( Pakistan, Bangladesh included ),.
The RSS wanted the land of Pakistan ( East and West);cleansed of Muslims, They wanted to start with Indian Muslims.
The Congress wanted the land of Pakistan ( East and West) with Muslims.
India under the Congress dreamt of dominating the Middle East, Central Asia , and North Africa with the world's largest Muslim population.

5.4. In their own way both the Congress and the RSS, viewed the existence of Pakistan as a major impediment to a cohesive Indian social fabric. The RSS viewed Indian Muslims as fifth columnists for Pakistan, having no basis to continue living in India when the country had been partitioned on communal grounds. Therefore the RSS, and Bharatiya Jan Sangh engineered communal pogroms, massacring Muslims and seriously damaging India's reputation among the non aligned countries particularly those with a Muslim majority ( Example : Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Tunisia, Algeria ). India's feeble argument that despite Partition there was a Muslim majority region within India ( Kashmir) did not have much impact on its dented image in the non-aligned movement

5.5 The Congress blamed the creation and existence of Pakistan for the Hindu Muslim tensions. If Pakistan magically disappeared, Hindu Muslim relations would improve ( so they thought). The RSS would be devoid of any argument to pursue their anti-Muslim agenda, and the Muslim population of East and West Pakistan along with the Muslim population of India would ensure secularism permanently in the Indian mindset.
Congress had to show the RSS that they were super-nationalists by attacking and destroying Pakistan. This would kill two birds with one stone. Both Pakistan and the RSS would be history.

5.6 The Congress Party would rule forever with Muslim electoral support. Congress assumed that the Indian Muslim support it was getting already would be translated into support from "liberated Pakistan's " population.
Pakistan was portrayed as a military dictatorship unrepresentative of its people who were dying to be liberated and reunite with India.

So India and the Soviet Union both had common reasons for the destruction of Pakistan. However India's military capabilities were limited in invading and "liberating" the peoples of Pakistan as the war of 1965 showed.

Another opportunity presented itself during Pakistan's Civil War in 1971. Events did not quite work out as intended, much to the Soviet Union's disappointment. Despite massive arms aid and full diplomatic support India from the Soviet Union India failed to "liberate " West Pakistan, or even take back Kashmir. The "liberated " eastern wing which emerged as Bangladesh could not be integrated back into India.

Ignoring India for its own long term geo-strategic aims the Soviet Union launched its own plans to take out Pakistan after first seizing Afghanistan.

India recognized that Pakistan would continue to exist on its border as a hostile state, which was very likely to join up even more closely with China and pose a long term threat. Therefore all further plans for Pakistan 's destruction would have to be put on hold. Maybe a soft option would work. If Pakistan did not feel threatened it would have no reason to join up with China. If diplomatic relations could be improved India could use all its cultural leverage on the basis of "people to people " contact and keep Pakistan out China's orbit.
Pakistan could be slowly dissolved like an ice cube in warm water. Once again a friendly Pakistan would take the wind out of the RSS and right wing parties. Indian Muslim support would be guaranteed simply because of the reduction in communal violence and also because at that time there were still enough divided Muslim families who desperately wanted easier travel between the two countries.

It didn't work !
( to be continued in the next post );
 
Last edited:

Xone

FULL MEMBER
Oct 13, 2019
400
0
446
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
vicious regime that is grossly ignorant of the repercussions
This fear is rightly there from the onset,
What we have to ensure goodwill for all, that the Repercussions should so dire and pervasive that this vicious regime may not ignore it or suffer the outcome of its choice. What monkey will do? You never know.
Just see what Libya was trying to do, is to live peacefully with the west, what is the outcome of its choice? The country is decimated by the West Once the West took over Libyan retaliatory power by hook or crook.
For our survival, the only choice is to get ready for death and make fail-proof arrangement to bring death and destruction for the perpetrator of such dire option. This has been a proven key for US and Russia.
It will is the only available option for Pakistan and the rest of the world for survival. Why? These frantic Indians love life more than anything else and fear death the most.
Had they no such repercussions, they would have tried to run over us many, many times ago.

We ready to die, for us death is not end of life. It is just a beginning of an everlasting life; and for that, we have been to taught, to get ready. This readiness is a blessing for us in a genuine sense.
 

padamchen

BANNED
Nov 11, 2016
11,487
-35
9,023
Country
India
Location
India
If someone like Babur had asked the same question in November 1970 that would Pakistan survive the next 50 years and a just born infant like Doc had gurgled yes, technically in 2021, 50 years later, Doc's answer would still have been right.

Cheers, Doc
 

ayodhyapati

FULL MEMBER
Jul 28, 2020
683
-4
207
Country
India
Location
India
Thread is in response to this question:


It is off topic and we can have a separate thread on that. My short answer is both India and Pakistan are unlikely to survive as nations for the next 50 years so the question is moot. We will have nuked ourselves into the stone age. Pakistan is in extreme danger of being annihilated by a savage and extremely vicious regime that is grossly ignorant of the
repurcussions.
we are 5000 years old civilization , we are here to stay .
" kuchh baat hai ki hasti mitati nahi hamari , sadio raha hai dushman daur e jama hamara "
Pakistan will have to go with a bang to simply cover the soft power projected by India.

No one knows the future. But Pakistan was made to outlast India.
who said ?
 

Baibars_1260

FULL MEMBER
Sep 12, 2020
1,614
0
1,417
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
I am afraid there are much more ominous portents on hand :
In 1972 were in pretty good shape to ensure our security, and by 1974, we had completely redefined ourselves as a nation.

Here are the differences in the enemy we face between the last 50 years and now:

1. In 1970s the regime in power in India was a non-religious one, under the umbrella of the Soviet Union. The Congress party headed by Indira Gandhi ( actually the General Secretary was Dev Kant Baruah but that doesn't count) was backed by the Communist Party of India and a number of minor centrist parties.

2. Indira Gandhi and the ruling elite wanted a center stage leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement. India was looking for a regional big power status and the Soviet backed Non-Aligned Movement was one way to assert India's foot print.

3. The Soviet Union was looking for a foothold in the region ; basically control over Afghanistan and West Pakistan to gain access to the Persian Gulf. India was a useful tool to achieve its ends.

4. The Soviet Union had been inimical to the presence or existence of Pakistan since the late 50s. The CIA flew U2 spy planes over the Soviet Union from Peshawar. After shooting down a Peshawar based U2 over its territory in 1960 , the USSR made a thinly veiled nuclear threat to Pakistan as a response. There was not much the USA could have done to protect Pakistan, and would certainly not have entered into a nuclear war on its behalf. Pakistan stopped the U2 flights but this did nothing to assuage the dislike the Soviet Union had developed for Pakistan. As a response it started arming India encouraging it to dismember Pakistan.

5. At that time India's hatred towards Pakistan was against the Pakistani state and government, not against the people of Pakistan ( at least not so much ).
The reason for India's hatred was as follows:
5.1 India wanted to project itself as a modern secular progressive state to its Soviet ally as well as to the Western world. The existence of Pakistan as an Islamic state or "Homeland for the Indian Muslims " , was a reminder that the anti-colonial struggle India triumphantly displayed to other newly independent and Non- Aligned nations, had gone horribly wrong. If the Indian political establishment could not win the trust of its largest minority, then India could not lecture to other countries, or lead the nations emerging from colonial domination to become secular democracies. Pakistan therefore had to go. It had to be defeated militarily, and brought back into the Indian Union.

5.2. For the Soviet Union secularism was the first step towards socialism. It was in the interest of the Soviet Union that India remained a secular state. If India turned religious it would be a godsend to the USA and NATO, who had long preferred religious fundamentalism over communism. The Communist Party of India which the Soviet Union dreamt would one day come to power, would never survive in fascist religiously fundamentalist state and would meet the fate of the German Communist Party in the 1930s.

5.3. Internally the stability of the Congress government was frequently threatened by right wing fascist political outfits such as the Jan Sangh and RSS, who hated the secular stance as much as they hated Muslims both in India and Pakistan (including Bangladesh). .
Partition of India had happened just two and half decades earlier. A secular India with a contented and secure minority was the last thing the RSS wanted. The RSS wanted a Hindu Rashtra ( Nation only for majority Hindus) by killing off, forcibly converting or driving out Muslims from all of old British India ( Pakistan, Bangladesh included ),.
The RSS wanted the land of Pakistan ( East and West);cleansed of Muslims, They wanted to start with Indian Muslims.
The Congress wanted the land of Pakistan ( East and West) with Muslims.
India under the Congress dreamt of dominating the Middle East, Central Asia , and North Africa with the world's largest Muslim population.

5.4. In their own way both the Congress and the RSS, viewed the existence of Pakistan as a major impediment to a cohesive Indian social fabric. The RSS viewed Indian Muslims as fifth columnists for Pakistan, having no basis to continue living in India when the country had been partitioned on communal grounds. Therefore the RSS, and Bharatiya Jan Sangh engineered communal pogroms, massacring Muslims and seriously damaging India's reputation among the non aligned countries particularly those with a Muslim majority ( Example : Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Tunisia, Algeria ). India's feeble argument that despite Partition there was a Muslim majority region within India ( Kashmir) did not have much impact on its dented image in the non-aligned movement

5.5 The Congress blamed the creation and existence of Pakistan for the Hindu Muslim tensions. If Pakistan magically disappeared, Hindu Muslim relations would improve ( so they thought). The RSS would be devoid of any argument to pursue their anti-Muslim agenda, and the Muslim population of East and West Pakistan along with the Muslim population of India would ensure secularism permanently in the Indian mindset.
Congress had to show the RSS that they were super-nationalists by attacking and destroying Pakistan. This would kill two birds with one stone. Both Pakistan and the RSS would be history.

5.6 The Congress Party would rule forever with Muslim electoral support. Congress assumed that the Indian Muslim support it was getting already would be translated into support from "liberated Pakistan's " population.
Pakistan was portrayed as a military dictatorship unrepresentative of its people who were dying to be liberated and reunite with India.

So India and the Soviet Union both had common reasons for the destruction of Pakistan. However India's military capabilities were limited in invading and "liberating" the peoples of Pakistan as the war of 1965 showed.

Another opportunity presented itself during Pakistan's Civil War in 1971. Events did not quite work out as intended, much to the Soviet Union's disappointment. Despite massive arms aid and full diplomatic support India from the Soviet Union India failed to "liberate " West Pakistan, or even take back Kashmir. The "liberated " eastern wing which emerged as Bangladesh could not be integrated back into India.

Ignoring India for its own long term geo-strategic aims the Soviet Union launched its own plans to take out Pakistan after first seizing Afghanistan.

India recognized that Pakistan would continue to exist on its border as a hostile state, which was very likely to join up even more closely with China and pose a long term threat. Therefore all further plans for Pakistan 's destruction would have to be put on hold. Maybe a soft option would work. If Pakistan did not feel threatened it would have no reason to join up with China. If diplomatic relations could be improved India could use all its cultural leverage on the basis of "people to people " contact and keep Pakistan out China's orbit.
Pakistan could be slowly dissolved like an ice cube in warm water. Once again a friendly Pakistan would take the wind out of the RSS and right wing parties. Indian Muslim support would be guaranteed simply because of the reduction in communal violence and also because at that time there were still enough divided Muslim families who desperately wanted easier travel between the two countries.

It didn't work !
( to be continued in the next post );
So lets start to next phase which being closer in the timeline of tye age of most PDF members here needs less explanation but first lets bust some myths:

1. Myth # 1

The basic issue between Pakistan and India is territory, specifically the territory of Kashmir.
Kashmir is only a symptom, and not the cause of the animosity between India and Pakistan. Even if in a fantasy world the Kashmir issue is ever resolved the enmity between Pakistan and India will remain, and in fact will increase.

Pakistan's case for Kashmir is simplistic and legalistic. Kashmir is a contiguous Muslim majority region which on the basis of Partition on religious grounds belongs to Pakistan. Overall the people's decision counts so per UN resolution a plebiscite should be held to determine the status of the territory.

India makes a much larger "moral " case beyond its own "legalistic stand ", that the state's tin pot ruler had acceded to India.

There are two stands by different political groups:

(a) The Congress Stand
The Congress stand is that regardless of who acceded claiming to be "king of Kashmir", India only recognizes a democratically elected government representing the Kashmiri people which has been there under "free and fair " elections ever since India took control of the territory. The "king" was sent packing. . A foreign sponsored plebiscite is out of the question,
On a moral stand, India rejects partition on religious grounds and ( unstated) a Muslim majority state living peacefully in Hindu majority India is proof of India's secular character. Pakistan must hand over the rest of Kashmir to unite the peoples so that they can live in peace.

(b). RSS stand .
Kashmir is part of Hindu majority mother India (Bharat Mata ) which Hindu armed forces have wrested successfully from Muslim control. The other half of Kashmir will also be shortly captured by military action, unless Pakistan surrenders like it did in 1971 in East Pakistan . Meanwhile Indian held Kashmir should have its Muslim majority status diluted by demographic change.The Kashmiris have no right to democratically elected state legislature such as is accorded to other states in the Indian Union. Kashmir must be governed by the army under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. giving the armed forces the right to search, arrest or kill any Kashmiri deemed a "terrorist" with impunity. Pakistan must be attacked or threatened to vacate Azad Kashmir without resistance. India is a Hindu majority state and no Muslim region or state will be tolerated.

So, that sums up the stands of the government and opposition.

Myth # 2.

Indian Muslims are factor in Indian Pakistani relations. How India treats its Indian Muslim population will affect relations.

In fact Indian Muslims have nothing to do with Indo-Pak animosity.
Indira Gandhi was well liked by Indian Muslims, and she maintained a strictly secular stance, , but was bitterly against Pakistan. The same has been the case with Nehru, Shastri, Chandrashekhar, Morarji Desai, I.K. Gujral, and Dev Gowda.
General stand: Pakistan is an illegitimate artificial state which must be dismantled because it is best for Indian Muslims.

The stand of the saffron brigade is well known. For them Pakistanis and Indian Muslims, Kashmiris are the same and worthy of slaughter and pogroms. Till full preparations can be made for Pakistan's destruction the slaughter has to be confined to India only.
 
Last edited:

jamahir

ELITE MEMBER
Jul 9, 2014
20,062
16
18,180
Country
India
Location
India
If India turned religious it would be a godsend to the USA and NATO, who had long preferred religious fundamentalism over communism.
That is the operating principle of NATO for every country in the East and Global South.

---

Below is my solution for the India-Pakistan-Kashmir antagonism issue and what can / should happen before the next 50 years :

 

peagle

FULL MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
1,097
3
2,678
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
we are 5000 years old civilization , we are here to stay .
As the inheritor of Indus Valley Civilisation, I know Pakistan is 5000 plus years old,

India has only been around for 70 odd years, all other times it was either ruled by foreigners, or everyone lived in their own areas, that's why you all have different languages, cultures, and foods. You all even look different, and different version of Hinduism, a name given by foreigners, you couldn't even give yourself a name, because you were never a single entity.

So,
Pakistan has a heritage going back to the Indus Valley Civilisation.
India has nothing but make-believe fantasies.
 

halupridol

BANNED
Nov 30, 2013
6,096
-32
6,971
Country
India
Location
India
Short answer to the question asked in op is YES undoubtedly.
Even cockroaches are surviving since Jurassic period.
As for the hilarious doom n gloom prediction about nuclear war,,,,appropriate sayings befitting such predictions - 'ghar me nahi daane, amma chali bhunane' and g@n¢ me dum nahi par hum kisi se kum kahi ' .
Marne maarne ki agar aukaat hoti toh yeh region hazaro salo se dusro ki bootpolish nhi kar rha hota.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 3, Members: 0, Guests: 3)


Top Bottom