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Will Pak test a thermo-nuke if India tests one?

Hakikat ve Hikmet

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A good discussion on the Indian fears regarding the nuclear divergence amongst India, Pakistan, and China. According to these shrewd Indian analysts (look at their devilish smiles: face is the mirror of the mind):
  • Pak has 200+ nukes of all sorts and sizes, including tactical ones inside short-range missiles, artillery shells and mines.
  • China has got 350+ nukes including the city buster thermo-nukes. Not to mention indigenous capability to produce nuclear submarines which are getting quiet, and mega carriers.
  • India's thermo-nuke test in 1998 was a failure.
  • To avoid the Chinese coercion India needs to do the following:
    • Carry hot tests for the proper thermo-nukes.
    • Build the western type nuclear subs to have a proper triad with the help from the USA, UK, France etc.
    • Own mega carriers that can carry a large #of jets and other aerial assets.
Would Pak also conduct a hot test of the thermo-nukes if India does so? My gut feeling is Yes for Pak hardly misses such grand opportunities....

 

lightoftruth

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Former Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Chairman Anil Kakodkar has asserted that India has credible thermo-nuclear bombs, in the "plural", with a yield of "much more" than 45 kilotonnes each.

"Why are you using singular? Make that plural," he said when asked if India had a credible thermo-nuclear bomb during an interview with journalist Karan Thapar on the Devil's Advocate show on television channel CNN-IBN.

When it was pointed out that former defence scientist K Santhanam had said recently that the thermonuclear device had not been weaponised even 11 years after the tests, Dr Kakodkar, who retired as AEC Chairman at the end of last month, asked, "How does he know? He is not involved."

About the yield, Dr Kakodkar said, "I told you we have the possibility of a deterrence of low kilotonne to 200 kilotonnes."
Referring to statements made recently by former Army Chief Gen V P Malik and others about doubts in the public arena and the need for an assurance to the Army on the yield and the efficacy of India's thermo-nuclear bomb, Dr Kakodkar said, "I think that is guaranteed. The Army should be fully confident and defend the country. There is no issue about the arsenal at their command."

Asked about the doubts raised by Dr Santhanam, former AEC Chairman P K Iyengar and others about India's nuclear tests of 1998, Dr Kakodkar said their was a totally erroneous conclusion.

"The yield of thermo-nuclear tests was verified, not by one method but several redundant methods based on different principles, done by different groups. These have been reviewed in detail and in fact I had described the tests in 1998 as perfect and I stand by that," he said.

Asked about the AEC claim that the yield of the tests was 45 kilotonnes and Dr Santhanam's statement that the DRDO seismic instruments had measured it as something between 20-25 kilotonnes, he said that the DRDO did dploy some instruments for measurements but they did not work.

"I myself had reviewed all the results immediately after the tests and we concluded that the instruments did not work," he said.

He assured that the AEC had proof that the yield of the test was 45 kilotonnes. "Yes. In fact we have. Within limits of what can be said and I must make it clear here that no country has given so much scientific details on their tests as we have given and this we have published with the maximum clarity which could be done," he said.
Dr Kakodkar said it was unfortunate that such doubts were stil being raised but said he was not worried by them because "facts are facts".

To another question about Dr Santhanam pointing out that the thermo-nuclear test did not create a crater when the fission device, which had produced a yield of 25 kilotonnes, had created a crater of 25 metres in diameter, Dr Kakodkar said that, in the first instance, the fission device yield was 15 kilotonnes.

He said that, although the two devices were about 1.5 km apart, the geology within that distance changed quite a bit, partly because of the layers that existed and their slopes but also because their depths were different. He said fission device was, thus, placed in one kind of medium and the thermo-nuclear device in another kind of medium.
"In fact, we have gone through detailed simulation. For example in simulation you can locate the thermo-nuclear device where the fission device was placed and you can locate the fission device where the thermo-nuclear device was placed. And you get a much bigger crater now because the yield is higher...And the fission device which is now placed in the thermo-nuclear position produces much less ground displacement," he said.

He offered similar explanations for the fact that the shaft and the a-frame were not damaged during the test.
About Dr Iyengar's views, Dr Kakodkar said his predecessor was nowhere involved in the 1998 tests, though he had been a key figure in the 1974 tests. He said information was given to many people on a "need to know" basis, and to to assume that Dr Santhanam knew everything was not true. "He knew everything within his realm of responsibility," he said.
Dr Kakodkar said there was no hiding of information and India was, perhaps, unique in that it had given out the maximum information and that, too, immediately after the tests.
"There is no hiding. There are limits to what can be revealed. These have been discussed in the Atomic Energy Commission in not one but four meetings after the 1998 tests. And there are people who are knowledgeable. Dr Ramanna was a member of the commission at that time. So where is the hiding?" he said.

He did not agree with Dr Santhanam's suggestion that a peer group of scientists should be formed to review the results of the 1998 thermo-nuclear test.
"There are methods through which one has assessed the test results. Each one of them is a specialisation in itself and there are different groups - not just individuals but groups - which have looked at these. The fact is that this is also on a need-to-know basis. Now, if all of them come to conclusions which are by-and-large similar, what other things can you do in terms of forming a peer group of scientists?" he asked.

He said the AEC had gone through the records once more recently after the controversy had cropped up again and later come out with an authoritative statement on the issue.
He said the important point to note was that the thermo-nuclear test, the fission test and the sub-kilottine test had all worked as designed.
"They are diverse. In terms of detailed design, their content is quite different. And so we think that the design which has been done is validated and within this configuration which has been tested one can build devices ranging from low kilotonne all the way to 200 kilotonnes. And that kind of fully assures the deterrence," he said.
Asked if India was right in maintaining that it did not need more thermo-nuclear tests when all the established nuclear powers had needed more than one test, he said, "Well if you go by 'Dil Maange More', that's another story.

"But we are talking about a time where the knowledge base has expanded, the capability has expanded and you carry out a design and prove you are confident that on the basis of that design and that test, one can build a range of systems right up to 200 kilotonnes," he added.


India had declared that it had 200 kt thermonuclear warheads 13 years back ,now things must have gone way beyond.
 

AZMwi

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A good discussion on the Indian fears regarding the nuclear divergence amongst India, Pakistan, and China. According to these shrewd Indian analysts (look at their devilish smiles: face is the mirror of the mind):
  • Pak has 200+ nukes of all sorts and sizes, including tactical ones inside short-range missiles, artillery shells and mines.
  • China has got 350+ nukes including the city buster thermo-nukes. Not to mention indigenous capability to produce nuclear submarines which are getting quiet, and mega carriers.
  • India's thermo-nuke test in 1998 was a failure.
  • To avoid the Chinese coercion India needs to do the following:
    • Carry hot tests for the proper thermo-nukes.
    • Build the western type nuclear subs to have a proper triad with the help from the USA, UK, France etc.
    • Own mega carriers that can carry a large #of jets and other aerial assets.
Would Pak also conduct a hot test of the thermo-nukes if India does so? My gut feeling is Yes for Pak hardly misses such grand opportunities....

naaaaahh our military will release a new song instead.
 

Zarvan

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A good discussion on the Indian fears regarding the nuclear divergence amongst India, Pakistan, and China. According to these shrewd Indian analysts (look at their devilish smiles: face is the mirror of the mind):
  • Pak has 200+ nukes of all sorts and sizes, including tactical ones inside short-range missiles, artillery shells and mines.
  • China has got 350+ nukes including the city buster thermo-nukes. Not to mention indigenous capability to produce nuclear submarines which are getting quiet, and mega carriers.
  • India's thermo-nuke test in 1998 was a failure.
  • To avoid the Chinese coercion India needs to do the following:
    • Carry hot tests for the proper thermo-nukes.
    • Build the western type nuclear subs to have a proper triad with the help from the USA, UK, France etc.
    • Own mega carriers that can carry a large #of jets and other aerial assets.
Would Pak also conduct a hot test of the thermo-nukes if India does so? My gut feeling is Yes for Pak hardly misses such grand opportunities....

Pakistan should keep increasing its nukes specially the strategic ones. The size of nuclear warhead if it's for cruise missiles should be between 250 to 300 KT. And if they are for MIRV based ballistic missiles then hopefully each missile would be carry at least four MIRV with each one having at least 100 to 150 KT of warhead. Pakistan strategic nukes should be around 500 with 150 deployed permanently. Pakistan should go South Korean way induct ships with which has VLS like new South Korean has and can carry either 6 ballistic missiles or 15 cruise missiles.
 

Olympus81

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Pakistan shouldn’t be testing anything. They have enough nukes.

What they need to focus on having different delivery mechanisms of the nukes. I believe Pakistan still hasn’t developed the capability of launching nukes via Submarines.
 

Rollno21

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Pakistan should keep increasing its nukes specially the strategic ones. The size of nuclear warhead if it's for cruise missiles should be between 250 to 300 KT. And if they are for MIRV based ballistic missiles then hopefully each missile would be carry at least four MIRV with each one having at least 100 to 150 KT of warhead. Pakistan strategic nukes should be around 500 with 150 deployed permanently. Pakistan should go South Korean way induct ships with which has VLS like new South Korean has and can carry either 6 ballistic missiles or 15 cruise missiles.
To maintain 150 war heads in ready to fire mode needs lot of money.
 

FuturePAF

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If India tests, Pakistan needs to test in kind to maintain the perception of parity and sense of stability in the region. Far from a destabilizing move, it is stabilizing because it maintains the status quo. If foreign powers don’t want Pakistan to test, they have to impress upon the Indians not to test first.

Vis a vi China, if India tests a lower then expected yield weapon, it will be in a worse position then not having tested at all. Currently it has ambiguity in its capabilities, but with testing their capabilities will be revealed.
 
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Bossman

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A good discussion on the Indian fears regarding the nuclear divergence amongst India, Pakistan, and China. According to these shrewd Indian analysts (look at their devilish smiles: face is the mirror of the mind):
  • Pak has 200+ nukes of all sorts and sizes, including tactical ones inside short-range missiles, artillery shells and mines.
  • China has got 350+ nukes including the city buster thermo-nukes. Not to mention indigenous capability to produce nuclear submarines which are getting quiet, and mega carriers.
  • India's thermo-nuke test in 1998 was a failure.
  • To avoid the Chinese coercion India needs to do the following:
    • Carry hot tests for the proper thermo-nukes.
    • Build the western type nuclear subs to have a proper triad with the help from the USA, UK, France etc.
    • Own mega carriers that can carry a large #of jets and other aerial assets.
Would Pak also conduct a hot test of the thermo-nukes if India does so? My gut feeling is Yes for Pak hardly misses such grand opportunities....

Insightful interview but keep in mind two things. First he is promoting his book. He will sell more books in India than rest of the world combined. Secondly he is promoting American solutions and hardware for an Indian problem.

He also confirmed that the Indian air craft carriers are sitting ducks right now and Mig29Ks have no legs or teeth. Unless IN gets something from existing US or French stocks, F18s or Rafael’s are at least 3 to 5 years away. His proposal regarding French cooperation with India for nuke subs is most lethal solution.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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A good discussion on the Indian fears regarding the nuclear divergence amongst India, Pakistan, and China. According to these shrewd Indian analysts (look at their devilish smiles: face is the mirror of the mind):
  • Pak has 200+ nukes of all sorts and sizes, including tactical ones inside short-range missiles, artillery shells and mines.
  • China has got 350+ nukes including the city buster thermo-nukes. Not to mention indigenous capability to produce nuclear submarines which are getting quiet, and mega carriers.
  • India's thermo-nuke test in 1998 was a failure.
  • To avoid the Chinese coercion India needs to do the following:
    • Carry hot tests for the proper thermo-nukes.
    • Build the western type nuclear subs to have a proper triad with the help from the USA, UK, France etc.
    • Own mega carriers that can carry a large #of jets and other aerial assets.
Would Pak also conduct a hot test of the thermo-nukes if India does so? My gut feeling is Yes for Pak hardly misses such grand opportunities....




Pakistan has had the ability to build thermonuclear bombs since at LEAST 2011:


What Pakistan has now is more than enough to vanquish our enemies or potential enemies for good.
 

Bossman

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Pakistan has had the ability to build thermonuclear bombs since at LEAST 2011:


What Pakistan has now is more than enough to vanquish our enemies or potential enemies for good.
Most Pakistani nuclear fission weapons are boosted nuclear weapons using Tritium and Deuterium. Transitioning to full fusion is not difficult.

Another take away from this interview is the diversity and range of Pakistan nuclear weapon design. The mathematician who initially started this work for PAEC was so good that he could literally came up with a new design in matter of weeks. He has since passed away but I am sure he trained enough successors. The propaganda that Pakistan used a Chinese design for its first nukes is total BS.
 
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Johny D

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India knows this hence will not go for hot test unless there is serious survival threat from China....We have already made a grave mistake by giving opportunity to Pak to become a nuclear state...we should not and will not repeat it...most probably we will rely on computer simulation
 

FuturePAF

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Pakistan has had the ability to build thermonuclear bombs since at LEAST 2011:


What Pakistan has now is more than enough to vanquish our enemies or potential enemies for good.

If Pakistan has 200 warheads on par with North Korea (250-300 kt). It can single handed up detonate 50 megatons on India. The fire storms that will cause will have global ramifications.

The simulation starting at 0:53 shows a simulation with 47 Megatons

Triple that to what a US-Russia war with 150 megatons has the potential to kill most (5 out of 8 billion) of humanity


 

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