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PradoTLC

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- The exodus of refugees will provoke Pakistani into a military intervention in Afghanistan.

an incorrect assumption.

Taliban will over run and Pakistan will make sure it stays that way.

The difference now is Pakistan has taken in consensus with Iran, China , Russia and Tajkistan on the way forward.

Taliban is a accepted commodity with them.

All these countries want to exploit commerce, resources, market, and energy access via Afghanistan
 

COOKie LOOkie....

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Imran khan spoke the language they understand. He is blunt and straightforward. If there are negotiations going on it should be brought up to the public the terms and conditions being talked about. Thats the right of the tax paying citizens its their lives at stake. He did the right thing by saying “ABSOLUTELY NOT” means its gonna take alot more to convince him. hes making sure they get the message thats Pakistan is not here to be pushed around we are willing to help but with our terms. USA doesn’t want to lose Pakistan and neither does pakistan. they both depend and eachother. US can try pressuring them but through media and or maybe IMF but that would be a final nail in the coffin. Other states has already extended their arms but only waiting for pakistan decision. So the arm twisting policy wont work with Pakistan. But tell me if pakistan had someone to hunt in mexico or Canada will US give them a base,?absolutely not but will negotiate thats what a self respecting sovereign state would do.
 

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It seems a lot of people here think this is a decision Imran can take, besides the fact that he is in all actuality as much of a spineless guy as the predecessor governments, it's honestly sad how he has degraded from what he once was looking at the SMQ interview and this. The decision for a US base in Pakistan will always be in the hands of the Army seeing how things are right now, it ain't in IK's hands just as it wasnt for the other governments.

They do their 'own thing' though weird choice of organization.
No sir it is not in army hand they dont know anything look what their decisions and policies has left pakistan in such state. Imran wont let that happen. the army knows hes not to mess with he aint no crook hes not zardari or nawaz. Army just can’t afford that, it took army years to set their image straight to the civilians, try something stupid again people will start hating the forces. Military has no right in making state policies better stick to their own job..
 

xyx007

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You should listen to him before deciding what to say

It seems a lot of people here think this is a decision Imran can take, besides the fact that he is in all actuality as much of a spineless guy as the predecessor governments, it's honestly sad how he has degraded from what he once was looking at the SMQ interview and this. The decision for a US base in Pakistan will always be in the hands of the Army seeing how things are right now, it ain't in IK's hands just as it wasnt for the other governments.

They do their 'own thing' though weird choice of organization.
 

Tomcats

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No sir it is not in army hand they dont know anything look what their decisions and policies has left pakistan in such state. Imran wont let that happen. the army knows hes not to mess with he aint no crook hes not zardari or nawaz. Army just can’t afford that, it took army years to set their image straight to the civilians, try something stupid again people will start hating the forces. Military has no right in making state policies better stick to their own job..
Well looking at recent events, it's fair to assume Imran Khan is being sidelined in these negotiations and the real talks are between the military and others.
 

COOKie LOOkie....

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Well looking at recent events, it's fair to assume Imran Khan is being sidelined in these negotiations and the real talks are between the military and others.
Yeah sure one can assume but CIA chief met his counterpart which is head of ISI. Imran khan didn’t want to meet him as he’s not supposed to. Imran khan is too big for him, he holds higher authority Imrans counterpart is head of state which is the president here is US. Thats how it supposed to be. PM or presidents shouldnt meet every tom dick or harry, they have bigger problems and responsibilities to deal with.
 

VCheng

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Many idiots here were claiming that Pakistan has agreed to give bases to US. I take it that you were one of them a few weeks ago too, eh? I guess IK openly saying No is official for these lot.

Communication channels agreement will end when US has withdrawn from Afghanistan. Official end will come soon enough but in the meantime speculate just as you had been about the bases being given to US.
We have heard PMIK's emphatic no to bases, but there is only speculation thus far on denial of airspace. IT will be clear soon enough. September is not that far away.
Exactly whose airspace would they use to get to Afghanistan? Iran perhaps?
Has Pakistan closed its airspace to US overflights yet? We can take this up if and when that happens.
 
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VCheng

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You keep repeating this line but never actually states what mutual interests are? Because no matter how one sees it, there is nothing mutual about it. US wants nothing short of a base inside Pakistan for drone attacks, yes its willing to do some compensations, but on the other side from a Pakistani perspective what can US really offer that will make Pakistan go against the Taliban, go against China and Russia? Nothing! Previously the reason Musharraf government went ahead with the US was because it was a dictatorship and wanted legitimization in the western world. PPP and PMLN, the less we say about them, the better. I mean Obama thought the most difficult call would be to Pakistan after so called OBL raid and yet he found that too be the most easy. Due to our own shortcomings we have surprised americans many times for far less, hence their expectations but you guys are up for a rude awakening this time.
It is in the interests of both countries to ensure that a stable Afghanistan is never used again for any terrorist attacks beyond its borders. Seems like a pretty potent alignment of national interests to me.
 

IceCold

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It is in the interests of both countries to ensure that a stable Afghanistan is never used again for any terrorist attacks beyond its borders. Seems like a pretty potent alignment of national interests to me.
The definition of stable and how to go about it is where the catch lies.
 

Adonis

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trtworld.com

Why Pakistan's Imran Khan said no to American drones
Aoun Sahi

11-13 minutes


The US is running out of options as it looks to secure strike capability against terrorist groups after the Afghan withdrawal.


On May 2, officers of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) visited Nasirabad, a dusty town in the western Balochistan province that borders Afghanistan and Iran. It was part of a scouting mission to pinpoint a location for constructing a new air base, a local government official told Dawn newspaper.
Nasirabad is not far from the Shamsi airfield that the United States used to launch drone strikes against militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas until 2011.
The report of a new air base came at a time when the US is struggling to figure out which country in the region will host its drones as it prepares for a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan.
It immediately stirred speculation that a potential air base in Nasirabad is somehow linked with Washington’s request to use Pakistani airspace for future missions to monitor and target Al Qaeda and Daesh in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s top leadership including Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi have categorically stated that Islamabad has refused access of its bases to Americans. The PAF has also clarified that search for a new air base is a routine matter.
“No base will be allowed to the US by Prime Minister Imran Khan so long as he is in power,” a senior Pakistani cabinet minister told TRT World.
An old nemesis
Khan, who has been in office since 2018, has long opposed US military intervention in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s own tribal region. And it’s unlikely he’ll back down.
As an opposition leader in 2012, Imran Khan led thousands of people in a rally from Islamabad to the tribal areas to protest US drone operations.
“Pakistan has collaborated with the US in the past but always at a great political cost,” Tughral Yamin, an Islamabad-based security analyst and associate dean at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), told TRT World.
The US has yet to publicly acknowledge Pakistan’s refusal to host its military aircraft and drones. Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to US President Joe Biden, instead, told a press conference earlier this month that the US has had “constructive discussions in the military, intelligence and diplomatic channels” in response to a question about a possible drone base in Pakistan.
The New York Times reported on June 6 that William J Burns, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), recently visited Islamabad where he met Pakistan’s military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and the head of the ISI, Pakistan military’s intelligence wing, Lt General Faiz Hameed.
During the same visit, Burns had requested an audience with Khan but was refused. Khan has reportedly said he will only talk to his counterpart — Joe Biden.
The secret arrival of the CIA director at such a crucial time is being seen as Washington’s attempt to lobby Pakistan’s powerful military.
“Imran Khan might have a thin majority in parliament but he speaks his own mind. Ultimately it’s a political decision (about the base) and I don't think the military will have any objection to that” said Yamin.
In 2012 when Imran Khan was an opposition leader he led thousands of people in a rally from Islamabad to tribal areas in protest against the US drone strikes.
In 2012 when Imran Khan was an opposition leader he led thousands of people in a rally from Islamabad to tribal areas in protest against the US drone strikes. (AP Archive)
The CIA-led US drone operation is widely unpopular in Pakistan. From 2004 and 2018, US drones carried out more than 400 strikes in the tribal areas located in the northern mountainous region. Between 424 and 969 civilians including more than 172 children were killed by bombs rained down by Predator and Reaper drones, according to The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ).
The only time the US accepted that one of its drone strikes killed any civilians was in 2015 when an Italian hostage along with another non-Pakistani in the custody of Al Qaeda was targeted.
“Armed drones have their own narrative. For instance in Pakistan they have become synonymous with perpetual surveillance and civilian communities terrorised while the Americans have even refused to take responsibility when something had gone wrong,” said Chris Woods of Airwars, which keeps track of the US drone attacks.
In the years leading up to his election, Khan continuously criticised past governments for allowing US boots on Pakistani soil.
“Imran Khan has been true to his word. There hasn’t been a recorded (CIA) airstrike within Pakistan since he came to power,” said Woods.
The CIA carried out the last drone strike in Pakistan’s tribal region in July 2018, the same month Khan won the election.
If Khan owes part of his electoral success to his defiance to US military intervention then there’s no reason for him to jeopardise his reputation by letting the Americans come back, said Woods.
An exit of a bloody legacy
Drones have been crucial to US military strategy since the Afghan invasion in 2001 drove out the Taliban regime. Over the years, drones have killed as many as 10,000 people in more than 13,000 strikes in Afghanistan. Hundreds of those killed were civilians.
Hundreds of civilians in Pakistan's tribal areas were killed in US drone strikes but Washington never acknowledged their deaths.'s tribal areas were killed in US drone strikes but Washington never acknowledged their deaths.
Hundreds of civilians in Pakistan's tribal areas were killed in US drone strikes but Washington never acknowledged their deaths. (AP Archive)
Operated by ‘pilots’ from a military facility somewhere in the US, the drones actually took off from secret American bases in Afghanistan.
Unlike conventional jets, drones can loiter in the air for up to 40 hours, helping intelligence sleuths collect information about targets on the ground. The cameras in the ball-shaped sensor turrets of drones have advanced in the past decade just like the cellphone cameras. They allow an operator to clearly see if someone is holding a gun in his hand and follow a militant to an isolated location before he’s hit.
“In principle, yes, drones should be better at avoiding civilian deaths than conventional jets. However, in practice, it depends on the targeting practices of the operators and how relaxed they are,” said Professor Hugh Gusterson, an anthropologist at The University of British Columbia and author of the book Drone: Remote Control Warfare.
“Over time, Obama tightened targeting protocols to reduce civilian deaths, then (Donald) Trump relaxed them,” he told TRT World.
The tenure of former US President Barack Obama saw the largest number of drone attacks.
The US has expedited the pullout of its troops from Afghanistan since it signed a peace deal with the Taliban last year. Washington plans to remove its remaining 2,000 odd soldiers by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks that started the war on terror.
Many of the US military bases have been vacated or handed over to the Afghan military, which experts say will face difficulty in fighting Taliban insurgents once foreign troops leave.
Searching for alternates
In what US officials have dubbed “over-the-horizon capacity”, Washington wants to station some of its drones and other military assets in one of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries.
But that has nothing to do with checking the advances of the Taliban, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Marine Gen. Kenneth F McKenzie Jr told the Military Times in an interview this week.
“I would tell you that the only thing we’re planning for right now — the only thing we’re planning for right now — is the ability to continue operations against al-Qaeda and ISIS (Daesh),” he said.
Drone attacks have become synonymous with death and destruction in Pakistan.
Drone attacks have become synonymous with death and destruction in Pakistan. (AP Archive)
Finding a country — other than Pakistan — that will host US forces and drones is turning out to be a challenge.
“US drones could operate from other bases in the region, including from Turkey. In general you want drones to be stationed as close as possible to their targets,” said Gusterson.
“The less distance they have to travel to target, the less you spend on fuel and maintenance and the more flying time you spend on the mission itself rather than on getting to the mission. Drones fly slowly, so distance matters.”
Some Central Asian countries can offer a solution, but Russia would oppose such a move.
Tajikistan has in the past allowed US planes to refuel at one of its air bases near the capital Dushanbe. But Tajik President Emomali Rahmon is close to Moscow. He was the only foreign leader invited by Russia for the May 6 military parade.
US troops also used the Karshi-Khanabad air base in Uzbekistan between 2001 and 2005. The arrangement fell apart after Washington condemned Uzbek government for suppressing domestic protests there.
One narrative that’s being pushed around — such as in this April article by BBC’s security correspondent Frank Gardner — is that the US is wary of trusting Pakistan’s ISI that is accused of facilitating the Taliban.
But experts said it’s more a matter of logistics.
Bahrain and Oman in the Gulf are also possible candidates. Both countries host bases of the American NATO ally UK. But a flight from these countries can take hours for it to reach a target in Afghanistan.
“Biggest limitation is the range. Reaper drones have significant range but you want them as close to the region as possible because you want them in the air hovering as long as you possibly can,” said Woods of Airwars.
“And the further distance that they have to travel the less time they have in the air, which is of course the value of the drone.”

Source: TRT World


Analysis
Devil Pact of Old nemesis

The old nemesis enabled the CIA to conduct covert drone operations on Pakistani citizens from Pakistani soil. Up until July 2018, this shameful past government publicly condemned CIA drone attacks while in fact allowing them. As long as Imran is in power, we have not seen a single drone attack by the CIA since he is in power in July 2018, and Imran takes these attacks very seriously against the Pakistani people. IK has stood solid on innocent people's lives, but we have to pay the price for that. While opposition leaders messed up Parliament sessions and blamed the government, they publicly stated that they were working hard to remove Imran Khan's government so CIA drones again can kill all Pakistanis.
"Why Imran said it", because he is the front face of the government ... he has to make such statement to assure and pacify radicals/Mullah/religious fanatics, Taliban.... who can otherwise take the country to ransom. Also, China would not have liked it.

May be it's all done and dusted......For Pakistan, such agreements are done with Army/establishment ( one could have referred history of Pakistan to think through)
 

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