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Why is Iran supporting BLA now?

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Oom

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A lot of reputable sources have blamed Tehran for the recent up tick in attacks in Baluchistan and for the current high threat level subsisting in Quetta.

What I fail to understand is why is Iran backing BLA now? What the rationale or the purpose?

1- Pakistan isn’t as close to Saudi Arabia as it was once
2- The Nuclear deal will be reached soon, and Iran will be free to export its oil. So no longer dependent on Indian market.
3- There hasn’t been a major attack in Sistan, Jaish al adl isn’t very active, so this can’t be labelled as Iran paying back Pakistan. Not that we ever did support such groups.
4- we support an inclusive government in Afghanistan, just as Tehran does, so not in major competition in Afghanistan either.

It seems irrational for Tehran to do so. Supporting BLA plays into Saudi and Israeli hands as that only incentive Pakistan to respond in kind to Tehran.

The only reason I could find is that the current IRGC commander General Salami has served in Sistan and seems to have a natural hostility towards Pakistan.

If anyone can explain Tehran’s rationale, I would be grateful.
 
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A lot of reputable sources have blamed Tehran for the recent up tick in attacks in Baluchistan and for the current high threat level subsisting in Quetta.

What I fail to understand is why is Iran backing BLA now? What the rationale or the purpose?

1- Pakistan isn’t as close to Saudi Arabia as it was once
2- The Nuclear deal will be reached soon, and Iran will be free to export its oil. So no longer dependent on Indian market.
3- There hasn’t been a major attack in Sistan, Jaish al adl isn’t very active, so this can’t be labelled as Iran Paying back Pakistan. Not that we ever did support such groups.
4- we support an inclusive government in Afghanistan, just as Tehran does, so not in major competition in Afghanistan either.

It seems irrational for Tehran to do so. Supporting BLA plays into Saudi and Israeli hands as that only incentive Pakistan to respond in kind to Tehran.

The only reason I could find is that the current IRGC commander General Salami has served in Sistan and seems to have a natural hostility towards Pakistan.

If anyone can explain Tehran’s rationale, I would be grateful.
When Pakistan starts flirting with Saudi and UAE. The Iranians crank up the pressure in Balouchistan, just to remind Pakistan not to get into any misadventure vis a vis Yemen.
Its called leverage, its the curse of our neighbourhood. Problems aren't solved directly, everyone has a proxy.
 
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Iranians letting establishment know who is boss in the region.


PA response:

69ns90.jpg
 

ahaider97

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Things in Balochistan heated up right after things in Kashmir cooled down, this is Indian pressure to keep us away from Kashmir. There has not been a single major attack in Kashmir since Pulwama, even the reaction after the abrogation of 370 was underwhelming. Pulwama was supposed to be a new chapter in Kashmir, the use of SVBIED was groundbreaking in Kashmir. This is Indian response and they succeeded. Iran does a lot of business with India and it has zero interest in Pakistan's security, they were able to pacify their own Baloch groups and they have done a better job than us fighting Kurd, Baloch and Arab insurgency so they don't care. Unless we can secure our own territory first, Iran or Afghanistan's role is irrelevant. FATF pressure defanged us, thanks to Army's interest in doing business rather than war. That's geo-economics for you.

Iranians letting establishment know who is boss in the region.


PA response:

69ns90.jpg
DHA Quetta will have no terrorism, rest of Balochistan can go to hell.
 

Oom

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When Pakistan starts flirting with Saudi and UAE. The Iranians crank up the pressure in Balouchistan, just to remind Pakistan not to get into any misadventure vis a vis Yemen.
Its called leverage, its the curse of our neighbourhood. Problems aren't solved directly, everyone has a proxy.
I don’t think we will ever deploy to Yemen. Again Pakistan relationship with the GCC isn’t as before. Egypt has replaced Pakistan as the security provider especially to the UAE. I heard they UAE even requested them to deploy AD units consisting of their skygaurd systems to defend against Houthi attacks. The only GCC country where we play a prominent role in defence is Qatar, and Iranian and Qatar relations aren’t hostile. Further our role in Saudi is limited to training.

I haven’t seen a single satisfactory response to that explains Iranian rationale yet.

Iranians letting establishment know who is boss in the region.


PA response:

69ns90.jpg
Come on serious response bro. I’m perplexed as to why Iran is doing this.
 

Oom

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Things in Balochistan heated up right after things in Kashmir cooled down, this is Indian pressure to keep us away from Kashmir. There has not been a single major attack in Kashmir since Pulwama, even the reaction after the abrogation of 370 was underwhelming. Pulwama was supposed to be a new chapter in Kashmir, the use of SVBIED was groundbreaking in Kashmir. This is Indian response and they succeeded. Iran does a lot of business with India and it has zero interest in Pakistan's security, they were able to pacify their own Baloch groups and they have done a better job than us fighting Kurd, Baloch and Arab insurgency so they don't care. Unless we can secure our own territory first, Iran or Afghanistan's role is irrelevant. FATF pressure defanged us, thanks to Army's interest in doing business rather than war. That's geo-economics for you.


DHA Quetta will have no terrorism, rest of Balochistan can go to hell.
Right. But it’s widely acknowledged that BLA is operating from Iran, that’s evident when BLA is very active in districts bordering Iran like Panjaur, Kech and Washuk, attack’s have been seen in all three districts.

BLA can’t operate from Iranian Sistan without the sanction of the IRGC. Iran has robust internal security, it’s not one to have ungoverned spaces.
 

ahaider97

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Right. But it’s widely acknowledged that BLA is operating from Iran, that’s evident when BLA is very active in districts bordering Iran like Panjaur, Kech and Washuk, attack’s have been seen in all three districts.

BLA can’t operate from Iranian Sistan without the sanction of the IRGC. Iran has robust internal security, it’s not one to have ungoverned spaces.
They have no reason to fight BLA for us, just like Taliban don't fight TTP for us.
 

Oom

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Persians are not warriors.
at least they haven't been for the past few centuries.
Even the greek defined them as feminine in character.

What they lack in this aspect, they make up with clever mischief.
This is what they have been doing,
That I agree. Now back to the question, why though? Why now?
 

Oom

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They have no reason to fight BLA for us, just like Taliban don't fight TTP for us.
We didn’t have a reason to fight Jundullah either, but we did because we knew if they continued to operate from Pakistan, Iran would use groups such as BLA to target us.

Iranians know perfectly well that Pakistan would respond in kind, if these attacks continued.

So doesn’t make any sense. Not one bit.

Taliban is another story, they are ideological terrorist, who can’t be reasoned with they will never act against their fellow brethren the TTP. Iran has no affiliation with the BLA, and they are quite a rationale state. That’s why the recent up ticks make no sense. Does Iran want to see instability in its own Sistan province, when it has to deal with so many issues on its other borders? Makes absolutely no sense.
 

ahaider97

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We didn’t have a reason to fight Jundullah either, but we did because we knew if they continued to operate from Pakistan, Iran would use groups such as BLA to target us.

Iranians know perfectly well that Pakistan would respond in kind, if these attacks continued.

So doesn’t make any sense. Not one bit.

Taliban is another story, they are ideological terrorist, who can’t be reasoned with they will never act against their fellow brethren the TTP. Iran has no affiliation with the BLA, and they are quite a rationale state. That’s why the recent up ticks make no sense. Does Iran want to see instability in its own Sistan province, when it has to deal with so many issues on its other borders? Makes absolutely no sense.
As long as BLA doesn't operate in Iran it isn't Iran's problem.

Junduallah was our problem because groups like Jundullah were attacking busses full of Shia civilians going to Iran. They were posing a much bigger threat than a simple ethnic insurgency.
 

Oom

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They also make up for it by striking Aramco with missiles.
A bit of a correction. Iran did not support or sanction the recent Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and UAE. Houthi are not completely in control of the IRGC, they are much more independent than other groups that IRGC runs.
 
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