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Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing

Homajon

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Why Iran experts are skeptical about the significance of Tehran's new deal with Beijing

Tim O'Donnell
Sat, March 27, 2021


China and Iran struck a deal on Saturday that will last for 25 years. On the surface it seems meaningful; in exchange for a steady supply of oil, Beijing agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran, The New York Times reports. But there's skepticism among Middle East experts about whether it actually signals a significant new phase in Tehran-Beijing relations.

Dina Esfandiary, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and co-author of a book about Iran's relations with China and Russia, told The Wall Street Journal the pact "allows Iran to be a little more intransigent," which could make "Europe and the U.S. a little more nervous because it looks like Iran may have a way out of economic strangulation." But she also tweeted that while it may be a "political and rhetorical win" for Iran, "it doesn't change much in its dealings with China for now." Esfandiary said she concurred with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the founder of the think tank Bourse & Bazaar and a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who argued the $400 billion figure is "completely made up" and "illogical."

In a Bourse & Bazaar article published in September, Jacob Scita, a doctoral fellow at the U.K.'s Durham University, wrote that the $400 billion figure — which is not included anywhere in the official text of the public agreement — came from an unreliable source, reasoning "the pattern of China-Iran trade" suggests such an investment was implausible. It's worth noting, however, that the Times is reporting $400 billion would be invested over the full 25 years, while Scita writes the source claimed the investment would take place over the first five years of a 25-year plan.

Either way, Batmangehlidj doesn't think the agreement, which other scholars agree is "vague" and "aspirational," should be overestimated, even if it is "geopolitically significant." "The framing that Iran is pursuing a unique relationship with China, that opens it to dependency, is incorrect," Batmangehlidj tweeted.



So it remains as before: Only a Resistance economy can save Iran.
 

TheImmortal

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A piece of paper can say anything. Just look at JCPOA. There is no honor in written agreements anymore.

So this so called China-Iran partnership deal is smoke and mirrors until we see concrete results.
 

raptor22

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At best it's a MoU nothing more nothing less for now cno contract or deal has been signed... a roadmap to build up future relation between 2 nations base on it ...
 

Homajon

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mohsen

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Homajon

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Well this links says there will be economic benefits for sure, then expresses it's concerns over possible side effects and how it will be implemented by governments.

Now compare it with skepticism of economic benefits which your sources express. two completely different agendas.
I don't agree totally with the farsnews article, but you wanted a neutral Iranian source, that's why I posted it.
My english article is way better, if you don't think so, ok: show me where in the agreement are the real concrete decisions. I read the agreement and all I see is "we shall do this and that" or "we hope to do" or "we encourage our companies to do".....that's not impressive. The day after in GCC countries China signed real concrete agreements with real numbers, not some vague statements.
Show me this in Irans agreement with China, give me specific numbers, give me specific decisions that will be implemented on a specific date, not some "we encourage" stuff....

And it makes sense: It would be stupid for the Chinese to sign something concrete with a government that only remains in power for a few month to come.

I'm not against the agreement, it is a step forward, its aim is symbolic, but it is not "groundbreaking", it is not "breathtaking"....
 

Dalit

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A western media reporting on western experts' views on Iran and China deal. I expected they will write there is no deal at all.
That is how these Westerners and Indians also obsessively report on China Pakistan matters.

Let me give Iran one advice. Be prepared for mass obsessive reporting by Hindustani and Western media on China Iran cooperation. These people are nuts and extremely obsessive.
A piece of paper can say anything. Just look at JCPOA. There is no honor in written agreements anymore.

So this so called China-Iran partnership deal is smoke and mirrors until we see concrete results.
That is what they all said about CPEC LOL

Have a good look at CPEC today. It began somewhere and the results are mightily visible.
Let me correct you; that's a Full-blooded reformist sh!t.
They always blindly trust west, and are always skeptical and against relations with east, always.

Your source even trusts Netanyahu blindly which is due to their traitorous nature.
We also have an army of traitors. They would lick Western boots all day long. They would gladly serve as a US/Western slave. It is funny they all use Twitter. Sowing doubt and hate.
 
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mohsen

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I don't agree totally with the farsnews article, but you wanted a neutral Iranian source, that's why I posted it.
My english article is way better, if you don't think so, ok: show me where in the agreement are the real concrete decisions. I read the agreement and all I see is "we shall do this and that" or "we hope to do" or "we encourage our companies to do".....that's not impressive. The day after in GCC countries China signed real concrete agreements with real numbers, not some vague statements.
Show me this in Irans agreement with China, give me specific numbers, give me specific decisions that will be implemented on a specific date, not some "we encourage" stuff....

And it makes sense: It would be stupid for the Chinese to sign something concrete with a government that only remains in power for a few month to come.

I'm not against the agreement, it is a step forward, its aim is symbolic, but it is not "groundbreaking", it is not "breathtaking"....
Here is the document:

Yes, there is no number in it, cause it has been initiated by Iranian leader and we had a traitor government which for several months didn't even appoint an ambassador to China! let along signing such an agreement, and I'm sure will delay it's implementation as much as possible.

it's not a deal or contract. it paves the way for future deals which their economic benefits for Iran is definite. for example: "Joint effort to establish a mechanism for stable import of crude oil from Iran", do you need a number to know it has economic benefits for Iran?! actually it is a breakthrough, this very single line alone is equal to whole JCPOA which traitors gave enormous concessions in return.
 

Homajon

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Yes, there is no number in it
And that's the main problem.

it's not a deal or contract.
Correct, it is merely a gesture of goodwill. Not practical, only symbolic.

"Joint effort to establish a mechanism for stable import of crude oil from Iran", do you need a number to know it has economic benefits for Iran?!
This is again a vague statement. What kind of mechanism, how exactly will it look like? I want concrete steps, not "we shall do".

Maybe in future there will indeed be a real agreement with real practical solutions, with specific steps, dates, numbers, etc....but today, right now, at this moment, no, it's not impressive at all, it's merely symbolic, to put a small pressure on US in nuclear negotiations (but the US won't be impressed).
 

mohsen

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Maybe in future there will indeed be a real agreement with real practical solutions, with specific steps, dates, numbers, etc....but today, right now, at this moment, no, it's not impressive at all, it's merely symbolic, to put a small pressure on US in nuclear negotiations (but the US won't be impressed).
Well, there was no practical solution in JCPOA as well, but none of these double face people were skeptical about it back then. and what if there is specific date and numbers in this deal but Chinese side refuse to comply? have you thought about it? all numbers can be voided without a true will.

In your mind, you are comparing this voluntary agreement with JCPOA which was imposed upon Iran, no one is forcing Iran or China to sign such an agreement, the main motive which drives it is the strategic (not tactical) interests of two sides. China is willingly signing it while is aware of US sanctions. this is exactly what their foreign ministry said two days ago "Relations with Iran are strategic".
 

Homajon

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In your mind, you are comparing this voluntary agreement with JCPOA
Aha....

One good thing: while this agreement does not strengthen Iran, it also doesn't make Iran dependent on China or turns Iran into a client of China or what else is said in the media, because again, this is not a concrete deal, it's merely a gesture of goodwill.
 

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