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Why did pakistani crime rate fall drastically post 2014 ?

313ghazi

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Crimes in Major cities get reported and registered. Those in rural parts rarely gets registered.

I have seen you tube videos of people in pakistan going around with private security carrying machine guns and AK 47 etc. How common is that ?
Rural crime is much less common. Rural communities are very communal and tribal based. Villages will often consist of many members of the same clan, so serious crime is much less likely to occur. Also people are heavily armed, so a home intrusion might result in you getting shot dead - not really worth it to steal someones VCR.

When rural crime does occur it is reported. Cattle theft, motorbike theft, highway robbery is the type of crime that is most likely to happen in rural areas and it is reported as often the criminal gangs have links to the locality and so are easier to track down.

The security guard thing is really based on EGO more than anything else. My neighbour in Pakistan is a political personality and when he returns to the village he brings a convoy with him mostly to show off that he is a political party. Half the village is his cousins and relatives, the other half have very cordial ties with him, he has no threat. There are still guards and stuff outside banks, and big businesses, even some housing complexes.
 

Andhadhun

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It depends on where you are. In Punjab you will rarely see such things. I've seen the president and governor's convoys, even those are only a few cars big in Islamabad and Lahore. However, back when terrorism was high, convoys would be far larger.

In Sindh some landlords or their kids might buy a bunch of cars and guards just to show off. Sometimes their kids use the armed guards to harass and intimidate peasants or ordinary people; this happens in Karachi as well. It is not too dangerous in Sindh and at most you would need 1 car at times. Nawaz Shareef took 40+ cars the last time I remember him visiting Karachi.

In Karachi, armed crime and kidnappings were very common until recently, and whoever was rich enough would get bulletproof cars and armed escorts, especially if they were a high profile target. They were occasionally blackwater cars there and in KP. I've also seen what I think is a CIA car because there was a land cruiser with white people in it and a blindfolded guy at the back. It was escorted by a number plateless vigo with 4 armed guards, with badly faked police uniforms. It was also bulletproof.

In Balochistan, if you're just going to Gwadar then you don't need much security. For the rest of Balochistan most people can't really afford cars. However, if you are a VIP or government official, it is advised to take 1-3 armed bulletproof cars and a jammer in case of an IED attack or ambush.

In AJK and Gilgit Baltistan there is no need for security, maybe an armoured car if you are really paranoid. There is a village in Gilgit-Baltistan that had a 0% crime rate even during peak WoT but I forgot its name.
Great reply. It was very informative.

Politicians needing security is given. Rich kids showing off is also given.

At what point of prosperity do one starts needing guns and bullet proof cars ? For e.g. a very corrupt tax official would need one for his family ? or do they target Private citizens and businessmen ?

Would a very large shop owner need security ?

Would a Bank manager need personal security ? or would a Mall owner need personal security ?

Also looks like the safest place to travel would be AJK and Gilgit Baltistan.
 
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Andhadhun

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Rural crime is much less common. Rural communities are very communal and tribal based. Villages will often consist of many members of the same clan, so serious crime is much less likely to occur. Also people are heavily armed, so a home intrusion might result in you getting shot dead - not really worth it to steal someones VCR.

When rural crime does occur it is reported. Cattle theft, motorbike theft, highway robbery is the type of crime that is most likely to happen in rural areas and it is reported as often the criminal gangs have links to the locality and so are easier to track down.

The security guard thing is really based on EGO more than anything else. My neighbour in Pakistan is a political personality and when he returns to the village he brings a convoy with him mostly to show off that he is a political party. Half the village is his cousins and relatives, the other half have very cordial ties with him, he has no threat. There are still guards and stuff outside banks, and big businesses, even some housing complexes.
Based on your comment, it seems like politics in rural pakistan would be clan politics. Similar to caste politics in India.

Close knit natural communities do tend to have lower crime rate.
 

waz

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No I understand. In India we have Lynching, in pakistan they get shot. Same difference.
Right so the rural part is easy to understand.


So do upper middle class have gunmen as security in city like Karachi or Lahore ? At what level of prosperity does one being to feel the need of a gunman ?
We're talking about very wealthy, and yes they do. More so in Karachi than Lahore which doesn't have crime as a problem.

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m52k85

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I was going through crime statistics of pakistan and saw that Crime or Crime reporting underwent a drastic fall from 2014 to 2015.

Can anyone tell me the possible reasons for that ?

If you study the Graph we find that this fall is not Natural so either the crime is not being reported, or the police is not registering the crime or some drastic improvement has taken place in the Legal system that deals with crime.

Here is the data,

The reason is know to almost every Pakistani informally, so im not surprised if you couldnt find it online.

The PPP had left power, PPP was involved in major criminal activity (read up on Uzair Baluch), they were so unconcerned that other parties joined in as well (MQM and ANP), karachi business men for getting bhatta parchis from three different gangs every month. Once the government sponsorship went the army moved in and cleared up the mess efficiently and swiftly.
 

IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

That sounds like a reasonable explanation. How long did this operation last ?

Also what is the share of Karachi to the total crime reported in pakistan ?

I think the share of karachi to the GDP of pakistan is around 25%. Would its share in crime be around the same ?
Crimes in Major cities get reported and registered. Those in rural parts rarely gets registered.

I have seen you tube videos of people in pakistan going around with private security carrying machine guns and AK 47 etc. How common is that ?

As a side note, Crime in Bangladesh too seems to have a drastic fall post 2014. That seems like a strange coincidence.



If you look at pakistani and BD crime rate before that, you see some sort of consistency. Post 2014 the change is sudden.
Great reply. It was very informative.

Politicians needing security is given. Rich kids showing off is also given.

At what point of prosperity do one starts needing guns and bullet proof cars ? For e.g. a very corrupt tax official would need one for his family ? or do they target Private citizens and businessmen ?

Would a very large shop owner need security ?

Would a Bank manager need personal security ? or would a Mall owner need personal security ?

Also looks like the safest place to travel would be AJK and Gilgit Baltistan.

So AJK and Gilgit Baltistan is the safest place to travel in pakistan.

Everyone I know personally from karachi was robbed once (usual phone snatching etc). This was before the operation. I personally know businessmen who were paying extortion to the criminals in Karachi before all of this.

The criminals were using funds collected there to further their area of control elsewhere. That changed abruptly after the operation (which seemed to have achieved what everyone considered impossible).



With regards to weapons, not terribly hard to get. I myself have an automatic rifle and a handgun (prohibited bore license). Most of my relatives have weapons at home (we are based in rural areas). There was a time not too long ago you could get grenades and such as well (illegally of course) but not now. People I know had ammo by the bag loads.

There are certain crimes that do happen like theft and highway robbery like usual. However, I know if sexual harassment was part of robbery than they usually kill you if they fi d you so it's fairly rare.

I know someone who was robbed by a group of robbers when their families were at home, the robbers didn't even talk to the women much. Just asked the men of the household to take them aside and calm them.

Anyways, when the operation happened, things changed drastically.

Mostly, it was realised that crime and terrorism were very closely related, both were seriously hit by the operation. I assume that played a major part in the general reduction of crime.
 

Vapnope

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At what point of prosperity do one starts needing guns and bullet proof cars ? For e.g. a very corrupt tax official would need one for his family ? or do they target Private citizens and businessmen ?

Would a very large shop owner need security ?

Would a Bank manager need personal security ? or would a Mall owner need personal security ?

Also looks like the safest place to travel would be AJK and Gilgit Baltistan.
I think guards and guns were a thing back in 90s to show power however things have changed since then. My next door neighbor has 3 armed guards and a dedicated escort car for his protection and he owns one small plaza, however someone who contested election for provincial assembly, has 2 plazas in our city and one in Dubai can be seen without an armed guard.
The show off things is fast waning in Urban Punjab.
 

SABRE

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Crimes in Major cities get reported and registered. Those in rural parts rarely gets registered.

I have seen you tube videos of people in pakistan going around with private security carrying machine guns and AK 47 etc. How common is that ?

As a side note, Crime in Bangladesh too seems to have a drastic fall post 2014. That seems like a strange coincidence.



If you look at pakistani and BD crime rate before that, you see some sort of consistency. Post 2014 the change is sudden.
In Pakistan private security is for being conspicuous. Mainly for portraying oneself as coming from wealth and/or validating oneself as someone important. It seldom has to do with actual security. These guards mostly accompany the kids (boys) of wealthy industrialists, landlords and politicians.
 

TheSnakeEatingMarkhur

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There is a symbiotic relationship between militancy and criminals. Militant networks (some political parties too) were involved in kidnapping, burglaries etc to raise money for their groups. Karachi operation around that time severely impacted these networks. Karachi went from 6th position on World Crime Index in 2014 to 103rd in 2020.
Jnaab kabhi kabhi dikhai dete hain aap 😄
 

TheSnakeEatingMarkhur

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Crimes in Major cities get reported and registered. Those in rural parts rarely gets registered.

I have seen you tube videos of people in pakistan going around with private security carrying machine guns and AK 47 etc. How common is that ?
Machine guns are nowhere but AK47 are common under licence tho and its quite common in central Punjab..

My Mum's uncle has licence to keep largest amount of shotgun slugs (privately) because he is a hunter and got it through few connections ages ago but now even tho they have licence they keep a small quantity.. and before in weddings people did "hawai" firing now one hardly gets green light to do so..
 

arjunk

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Great reply. It was very informative.

Politicians needing security is given. Rich kids showing off is also given.

At what point of prosperity do one starts needing guns and bullet proof cars ? For e.g. a very corrupt tax official would need one for his family ? or do they target Private citizens and businessmen ?

Would a very large shop owner need security ?

Would a Bank manager need personal security ? or would a Mall owner need personal security ?

Also looks like the safest place to travel would be AJK and Gilgit Baltistan.
If you have pissed off some influential people, then you will need security. A very corrupt tax official will need security for his family because he may piss off lots of people, and either they will attack him in a mob or some of them will be influential and dangerous. A very large shop owner may need security outside of Nothern Punjab, again dependent on how many rivals he has and how much he flaunts his wealth. This is not talking about home security, which all of these people MUST have or they are big easy targets for even regular street criminals.

A bank manager would need a bullet proof car and a few guards while travelling.
 

Andhadhun

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If you have pissed off some influential people, then you will need security. A very corrupt tax official will need security for his family because he may piss off lots of people, and either they will attack him in a mob or some of them will be influential and dangerous. A very large shop owner may need security outside of Nothern Punjab, again dependent on how many rivals he has and how much he flaunts his wealth. This is not talking about home security, which all of these people MUST have or they are big easy targets for even regular street criminals.

A bank manager would need a bullet proof car and a few guards while travelling.
What do you mean by "Home security " ?

Also what is the price of a Bullet proof car in pakistan ? How can a bank manager afford one ?
 

Ahmet Pasha

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I was going through crime statistics of pakistan and saw that Crime or Crime reporting underwent a drastic fall from 2014 to 2015.

Can anyone tell me the possible reasons for that ?

If you study the Graph we find that this fall is not Natural so either the crime is not being reported, or the police is not registering the crime or some drastic improvement has taken place in the Legal system that deals with crime.

Here is the data,

Because we were whipping your abba g, mamu and chachus without khatna in Waziristan and Karachi, Interior Sindh and Punjab. Yea Balochistan too. Sai peche danda diya tum logo ko fouj ne.
 

RealNapster

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I have seen you tube videos of people in pakistan going around with private security carrying machine guns and AK 47 etc. How common is that ?
That is more for " a sense of pride and to show strength to people's" than wanting to be secure. A common thing with Pakistani elite.
 

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