• Friday, December 13, 2019

Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by Carlosa, Mar 14, 2015.

  1. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    March 12, 2015
    Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning
    By David Archibald

    Articles: Why China Will Lose the War It is Planning

    How do we know the war is coming in the first place? Because the advertising for it is out. Amongst plenty of other evidence, one Chinese front organisation conducted a poll on Australian attitudes to the ANZUS treaty and a Chinese attack on Japan. Why would they conduct such a poll unless they are going to attack Japan? Not that they were interested in the results as such. They just wanted to be able to publicize the poll in order to try to keep Australia on the sidelines of their war.

    The war will have two functions for China. Firstly, it will provide legitimacy for the regime as economic growth stalls. Secondly, the Chinese will have pride in humiliating their neighbouring countries, and the United States, by defeating them in battle and creating no-go zones in the oceans which other countries won’t be able to enter without Chinese permission. The war will have nothing to do with oil and gas resources under the seabed and securing sea-lanes. The Chinese have never offered those excuses for their behavior themselves. The excuses are the creation of Western pundits for something that otherwise is stupid, destructive, and primitive.

    Some have seen this war coming well in advance. In 2005, Robert Kaplan wrote an article entitled How We Would Fight China. In it he notes that China will approach the war “asymmetrically, as terrorists do. In Iraq the insurgents have shown us the low end of asymmetry, with car bombs. But the Chinese are poised to show us the high end of the art.”

    To win the war, China has to seize territory and then hold it against the US/Japanese counterattack. There will be two main theatres of operation -- the Senkaku and Yaeyama island chains in the East China Sea and the Paracel and Spratly Islands south of Hainan Island in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea, China claims the uninhabited Senkaku Islands and has made noises about being the rightful owners of the Ryuku and Yaeyama Island Chains. This part of the world is complicated for China in that there are US bases on Okinawa in the Ryukus.

    They could leave the US bases out of their attack in the expectation that President Obama will renege on his commitment to come to Japan’s aid if China attempts to seize the Senkaku Islands. More likely they will attack US bases in the region at least as far out as Guam on the basis that the United States will be entering the war anyway and they are better off getting a surprise attack in first. Also, they can’t be number one on the planet until they have defeated the United States. So their pride will be a big part of it.

    If China is going to seize the Senkaku Islands, it would take only a little bit more effort, morally and militarily, to seize the Yaeyama Islands at the same time. Part of the preparations for this operation includes building the Shuimen airbase on a ridge on the mainland at 26° 56’ N, 120° 05’ E. More recently an expeditionary base for helicopters is under construction in the Nanji Islands at 27° 27’ N, 121° 04’ E. China has been conditioning the Japanese by having their fishing vessels run incursions into Japanese territory with each incursion lasting two hours. In late 2014, the fishing transgressions extended to the Osagawa Islands further east.

    In the East China Sea, China is likely to start the war off with helicopters landing troops on the Senkaku and Yaeyama Islands quickly followed by a swarm of coast guard and commercial vessels to dilute the targeting of the naval vessels among them. They may also use fishing vessels to land Special Forces further east in the Osagawa Islands. These troops would be used sacrificially to dilute the response to the main thrust. That would be why China is conditioning Japan to get used to fishing vessels making incursions in the Osagawas. China would also be attacking US and Japanese bases with intermediate range ballistic missiles -- everything that would throw the Japanese off balance and make the problem of the Chinese attack seem overwhelming.

    The US Marines are confident that they could recapture the Senkaku Islands once control of the sea and air was assured. Japanese and US forces would have no desire to set foot on Chinese territory. After the initial Chinese onslaught, the campaign would settle down to a blockade of shipping to China conducted beyond the reach of Chinese aircraft. China wouldn’t run out of oil because they are building a large stockpile and they could easily cut consumption down to the level of domestic production of 4 million barrels per day. But 26% of the economy is export-related and so economic activity would collapse. The effect of the blockade in the rest of the world would be a major boost to economic activity as companies tried to make good the loss of Chinese supply.

    In the South China Sea, China would declare an Air Defence Identification Zone and enforce it using the airbase they are currently building on Fiery Cross Reef. They may attempt to seize other countries’ bases in the Spratleys or they might just sink their ships and starve them out. The problem for China is that the South China Sea is a natural kill box for Chinese shipping. On the western side, Vietnam has upgraded its radars (with assistance from the French company Thales) and has an inventory of about 500 anti-ship missiles. Singapore’s air force is likely to assist Vietnam and stage through Cam Ranh Bay with their 36 F-15s.

    On the eastern side, the US has plenty of basing opportunities in the Philippines. Once the airfield on Fiery Cross Reef was degraded, Chinese shipping would have to rely upon air cover coming from bases 1,000 km to the northwest. Eventually the Chinese air defences will be worn down and the Chinese ships will be defenseless. Then will come bombardment of the bases they have built and it will be all over. The US Marines now have a base at Oyster Bay on the western side of Palawan Island in the Philippines in preparation for this battle. If the Chinese are particularly intractable, then the US might go on to capture Woody Island in the Paracel Group. That will be a lot tougher in that it is only 300 km from Hainan Island and the depth of Chinese basing behind it on the mainland.

    What if you don’t like the idea of the US being involved in a war with China? Well stop buying anything made in China. The US takes 17% of China’s exports and if that dried up, the Chinese economy would shrink by 4.5%. The social dislocation that would cause might be enough to topple the warhawk who is driving the Chinese aggression, President Xi Jinping. Until President Xi is gone, prepare for war.

    David Archibald, a visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery, 2014)
     
  2. Genesis

    Genesis SENIOR MEMBER

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    I wouldn't say I expects better, but come on man, did you even read the article?

    This is on the table for him.
     
  3. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    That part certainly doesn't make sense, but the article have merits for discussion, why not?
     
  4. Genesis

    Genesis SENIOR MEMBER

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    what about this part?

    lol each time you say this article has merit I'll just quote another part of the article. I mean I can keep going.

    lol

    attack as far as Guam, for the reason he listed, we should attack as far as DC, not Guam.
     
  5. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    I think the description of the military part is what makes it interesting for discussion, the political part will always be one sided.
     
  6. Genesis

    Genesis SENIOR MEMBER

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    fair, but look at the game plan.

    Marines can always take over islands once air and sea superiority has been established. If air and sea superiority has been established that be the end of the war.

    Second, he mentions missile attacks on all bases, where's he getting the fighters from then? Where is he getting the troops from? He mentions 500 anti ship missiles Vietnam have, how many does he think China have, if these missiles are suppose to have the effect he thinks they can have.

    Third, he mentions Philippines as a base, that would take time, time he doesn't have, since this apparently is a premeditated attack.

    Fourth, most navies, even American ones are on the schedule of 1/3 on missions, 1/3 training, and 1/3 under maintenance. America cannot gather it's full strength in any meaningful time and again we be planning, so at least we have 2/3 ready to go.

    This doesn't just apply to the whole of USN, but also to the USN in Asia, meaning that 60% of ships just got down to 40% at best and 25-30% would still be optimistic.


    Whether you like to admit it or not, at current strength, Vietnam + Philippines + ?Singapore?'s navy and airforce togethor cannot handle what China is throwing. China has a complete system, aside from numbers, you guys also lack key systems for war.

    Area air defence, effective submarine warfare, antisub warfare, missile defence, strategic transport, oil and ammunition stockpile, communication satellites, and more that modern warfare needs.
     
  7. Raphael

    Raphael SENIOR MEMBER

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    These war-mongerers always scream that China wants to start a war. Yet they are the only ones gushing out elaborate scenarios of how the war will proceed, how great it is that business will collapse from embargo and civilians will die from starvation. Their dark fantasies that they daydream about down to the most minute detail are seriously perverse. It reminds me about a manifesto I read from a convicted rapist who carefully planned, envisioned, and wrote down his rape fantasies beforehand, and insisted in each scenario that his victim had committed the first "aggression" by refusing his advances, etc.

    Anyway, if a war breaks out, it's guaranteed that Viets or Flips will fire the first bullet. China won't start the war because it benefits the most from peace, growing at 7%+ each year, improving its security capabilities, and thereby incrementally closing the window of opportunity that Viets or Flips have of successfully imperializing the region. Even thought China's territorial sovereignty and integrity has been violated by Vietnamese and Filipino sinful expansionism, this is the status quo we have accepted up to the very present. But if, as the author suggests, Viets intend to initiate aggression by invading our Paracel Islands, we will definitely not forgo our right to self-defense.
     
  8. BoQ77

    BoQ77 BANNED

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    It's lucky for the East Asia that Vietnam is still able to hold some grounds in SCS.
    While that is giving less benefit to Vietnam, it helps to keep the ship lanes safer from aggressive China.

    The scenario is started from Japan.

    If China want to invade Taiwan, they must fight Japan too. And they would also meet US intervene.
    Southeast Asia is also the background of Japan manufacturing sites.

    Once the risk of war is clear, China would tighten the shipping lanes to Japan. That's very dangerous to Japan. And China could suddenly occupy the Taiping island - currently occupied by Taiwanese in SCS as throwing stone for pathfinder. ( wondering who would back Taiwan in this case ?)

    China is trying to surround Japan, so does Japan and USA.
    Who succeeded, that's the winner.

    If China is the winner of this war, let's think. What's next ??
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2015
  9. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    You guys, the article is not mine, I just posted it for discussion.

    Myself, I don't see why china would start a war in 2 fronts at once. I think it would be in just one place, in the ECS.

    Going into the military aspects of it, I think the intended western plan would be that they will bring assets to Japan before attempting the assault on those islands. For sure there would be a counter attack on the chinese mainland from bombers and sub, etc launched cruise missiles, again, we don't know how effective that will be.

    Also, its not assured that china will be able to destroy the current assets in Okinawa and Guam, there will be damage for sure, but we don't know how extensive.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2015
  10. Bussard Ramjet

    Bussard Ramjet SENIOR MEMBER

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    This is perhaps the single most foolish article I have ever read.
     
  11. Beast

    Beast ELITE MEMBER

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    You dont just post any random post without analysis. Then you will be equal at fault if criticism comes in.
     
  12. Huaren

    Huaren FULL MEMBER

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    And yet to some such article have "merits" for interesting discussion:lol:
     
  13. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    He didn't include VN or Singapore in the war, he only listed their assets. He said China may attempt to seize some islands of other countries, that's all, so they are optional in this situation. Actually, US have quite a big transportation infrastructure, they can bring a lot of assets to PH and it will take some time, but they will bring them. Another factor also would be US subs which are always present in the area. They will make a difference also as well as air assets which are usually fast to deploy.
     
  14. IsaacNewton

    IsaacNewton FULL MEMBER

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    Pretty stupid article in my opinion.

    China is not planning a war against Japan....
    Also, why would you invade Senkaku/Diao Yu? Land 100 troops on a deserted island in the middle of the nowhere? The soldiers will be bored out of their minds. and probably starve to death once high tide comes.

    There is absolutely no strategical advantage in occupying those islands. It won't change the status quo, and it leaves them too vulnerable to a counterattack.
     
  15. Carlosa

    Carlosa SENIOR MEMBER

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    Where in the article does it say that "Viets intend to initiate aggression by invading our Paracel Islands"? He is talking about US forces attacking the paracels.

    Not really, the article implies not just attacking the senkakus, but also the Yaeyama Islands and those have tremendous strategic importance since that would break the choke points of the first island chain and would allow the PLAN to breakout into the open ocean.