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Why Bangladesh May Not Become Sri Lanka

epebble

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Pakistan has a much more diverse economy and bigger source of remittance.

Given its nuclear arsenal - Uncle Sam won’t let it go bankrupt or completely under Chinese control.

With all due respect - no one gives a shit about Sri Lanka.
They look similar, except, PK imports are higher, PK Balance of Trade is worse.

PK:

Exports

$27.3 billion (2020 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Exports - commodities

textiles, clothing and apparel, rice, leather goods, surgical instruments (2019)

Imports

$51.07 billion (2020 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Imports - commodities

refined petroleum, crude petroleum, natural gas, palm oil, scrap iron (2019)


SL

Exports

$19.41 billion (2019 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Exports - commodities

clothing and apparel, tea, used tires, rubber products, precious stones, cinnamon (2019)

Imports

$24.56 billion (2019 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Imports - commodities

refined petroleum, textiles, gold, cars, broadcasting equipment (2019)

 

BananaRepublicUK

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There are more reasons that BD will be another SL in the not-so-distant time.
- Remittances are down. Expatriates prefer sending money by Hundi because they get more than Tk110 to Tk120 for a dollar. The Banks pay less than Tk100.

- Import deficits are $4.5 billion in the first two months of this fiscal.

- The repayment volume of our foreign loans is to go up to $5 billion in 2024 and it will increase year after year after each of the loans gets matured although our big economists in this Forum were expecting free lunch forever.

So when will the bad Wolf turn up?

You have been crying about it for two years!!!! 🥳🤣🤣

Instead of whining - you could make millions by hedging BD debt.

Put your money where your mouth is 🤣🤣🤣

E.g. I firmly believed that Indian Sunak was destroying U.K. economy through his covid giveaway - I decided to move most of my pension portfolio to US dollar based investments.

Now I am sitting pretty!

Unlike you I follow through with my conviction.

Where’s your money Mistri bhai?
 

fallstuff

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The current issue of depleting reserve is mostly from procurement import bills for mega projects that are becoming due and being paid.
However grace period for other sovereign loans are about to end, the spread between Govt dollar value and open market is just too high ( 10-15 TK or so ), and continued high prices for essential imports create a major concern about dollar reserve.

I would use hoondi to get extra 1000 to 1500 TK on $100 remittance. If you consider the case of folks working hard in the Middle East sending their money, I wouldn't be surprised if more and more are choosing hoondi over wire/bank transfer.
 

BananaRepublicUK

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The current issue of depleting reserve is mostly from procurement import bills for mega projects that are becoming due and being paid.
However grace period for other sovereign loans are about to end, the spread between Govt dollar value and open market is just too high ( 10-15 TK or so ), and continued high prices for essential imports create a major concern about dollar reserve.

I would use hoondi to get extra 1000 to 1500 TK on $100 remittance. If you consider the case of folks working hard in the Middle East sending their money, I wouldn't be surprised if more and more are choosing hoondi over wire/bank transfer.

Hoondi system is propping up the taka. I wouldn’t cry too much.

Expats are getting good rates. And the crooks are the ones who are paying it.

Whilst legitimate business people are getting a very good rate from BB.

In summary, expats getting good rates from hoondi crooks. And legitimate businesses getting exceptional rates from BB.

Win, win!
 

fallstuff

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Hoondi system is propping up the taka. I wouldn’t cry too much.

Expats are getting good rates. And the crooks are the ones who are paying it.

Whilst legitimate business people are getting a very good rate from BB.

In summary, expats getting good rates from hoondi crooks. And legitimate businesses getting exceptional rates from BB.

Win, win!
Not exactly win win, cause it is the same source of remittance.
Mr. Bangladeshi in Dubai will choose to send money by hoondi over wire/bank transfer. Increase in hoondi leads to decrease in official money transfer.
 

BananaRepublicUK

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Not exactly win win, cause it is the same source of remittance.
Mr. Bangladeshi in Dubai will choose to send money by hoondi over wire/bank transfer. Increase in hoondi leads to decrease in official money transfer.

Yes! Officially, dollar flow will fall. But unofficially it will not.

In the end, money is ending up in Bangladeshi hands. Albeit, tax receipts will fall slightly.

Gainers are the relatives of ex pats.

Hoondi traders are getting screwed because BB is maintaining a high rate and will only offer it to legitimate businesses.

Hence I wouldn’t cry too much.
 

Bilal9

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Like the video said, the primary barometer is (of course - economic disasters excepted) Debt-to-GDP ratio.

@Destranator, @Homo Sapiens bhais, others, what say you? :-)

1665251210700.png
 

Bilal9

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@Bilal9

Looks like IND, PAK and BRA are goners!

Regards

Not by a long shot. These are all very large economies.

They can withstand a lot of economic shock. But the looting is out of sight in these three countries.

I am surprised that the looting in Bangladesh is not more critical as shown - but govt. in Bangladesh is VERY conservative fiscally speaking.

In India's case, a lot of internal production and consumption, independent of imports.

I'm no economist, but that is my gut feel.
 

bluesky

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The current issue of depleting reserve is mostly from procurement import bills for mega projects that are becoming due and being paid.
However grace period for other sovereign loans are about to end, the spread between Govt dollar value and open market is just too high ( 10-15 TK or so ), and continued high prices for essential imports create a major concern about dollar reserve.

I would use hoondi to get extra 1000 to 1500 TK on $100 remittance. If you consider the case of folks working hard in the Middle East sending their money, I wouldn't be surprised if more and more are choosing hoondi over wire/bank transfer.
The foreign loan burden of Bangladesh is in total $147.8 billion. Guys, please watch the video below:

 
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SoulSpokesman

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@BananaRepublicUK

Dada,

I am just here to learn, I have no wish to dismiss @bluesky as a crank; or either talk BD upto the skies or run it down. I just want to have some independently verifiable facts, figures and analysis and not conspiracy theories.

Regards
 

bluesky

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Neel Akash dada,

The foreign loan burden of Bangladesh is in total $147.8 billion.

Source? A youtube video doesnt qualify as a source.

Regards
People who have discussed the matter are not novices on economic matters. They are economists of the country teaching in the Universities. They have all the necessary information on the matter of national debts. The repayment will exceed $5 BILLION in 2024.

The internet source says that "Bangladesh's External Debt reached 93.2 USD bn in Mar 2022, compared with 90.8 USD bn in the previous quarter. Bangladesh External Debt: USD mn data is updated quarterly, available from Sep 2011 to Mar 2022. The data reached an all-time high of 93.2 USD bn in Mar 2022 and a record low of 22.1 USD bn in Mar 2012".

However, the amount waiting for maturity is another $50+ billion. This will be matured within the next few years making the total $147+ billion.

Also, know that the domestic borrowing is about equivalent to $78 billion.
 
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SoulSpokesman

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@bluesky

Also, know that the domestic borrowing is about equivalent to $78 billion.

India's domestic borrowings would be in the range of maybe USD 3 trillion. Do you see any Indian poster here crying that the sky is going to fall on the head? BD has debt, it also has revenues, it will pay them off.

Regards
 

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