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Why Bangladesh has left India far behind

Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8

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Sea levels won't engulf bhakt countries and cities?

What about denuded mountains, water runoffs and flash floods?

Remember Chennai in 2015?







Don't worry about Bangladeshis, they are a resilient lot and will manage.

deadly-floods-in-india-point-to-a-looming-climate-emergency-in-the-himalayas/

india-among-top-10-countries-most-affected-by-climate-change-germanwatch

india-5th-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change-fallouts-its-poor-the-worst-hit/

east-india-extremely-vulnerable-to-climate-change-analysis-101618725805562.html



we would move to higher ground inland..average height of India is 600+ metres
 

Progressive1

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Human resource Capital of both India and Bangladesh is identical.....Both have the capacity to break the low middle income benchmark ($5,000 per capita nominal) ...May be both can sail past the middle middle income territorry but it's a longshot ($10,000 GDP per capita nominal)...None of them will be able to break the high middle income ($15k GDP per capita nominal) or high income ($20k per Capita nominal) in the forseeable future or the next 100 years


Still this means Bangladesh has very good chance to be a trillion dollar economy and India a 10 Trillion dollar one ...If that happens it happens by 2040 or never....You need a national urge, inertia or momentum to get that level of development done...It just doesnot happen in a business as usual way


Whatever India or Bangladesh achieves in terms of development, the other will achieve too...The only compeition is who reaches the various development milestones first..........


India and Bangladesh are locked in a development race the same way USA and USSR were locked in the space race from end of second world war to early 70s...

And frankly I love it that we have some serious competition in our neighbourhood who will keep us honest....It's very hard to develop if the neighbourhood has underdeveloped economies.....
this hurts me the most , practically speaking no south asian country can break the middle income trap and reach even tier 2 european country level like spain , we have effed up our population to resourece ratio big time , what we can achieve is patches of developed world standards in various parts like we have in eastern china.
 

Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8

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this hurts me the most , practically speaking no south asian country can break the middle income trap and reach even tier 2 european country level like spain , we have effed up our population to resourece ratio big time , what we can achieve is patches of developed world standards in various parts like we have in eastern china.


To be fair All of South Asian countries were underpopulated till late 60s early 70s...if we had moved to a quota system regarding child birth by say 1975....We would have been the Asian Tiger economies (HK,Singapore,Taiwan,South Korea)....the more taxes you give to the government, the more children you are allowed to produce...and every family/woman gets a flat allowance for one child


One thing that may interest you...you donot need to be a tier 2 EU level economy to have near zero corruption...Bhutan is as poor as India, but it is within the top 25 countries in the world in terms of no corruption....beating even many vaunted first world economies and West european countries

Why Sri Lanka has left India far behind?

Sri Lanka bombed itself to pieces in the civil war, and yet, just 10 years after, they overtook the rest of South Asia.

@Uguduwa ?

Sr Lanka was always having better development indices than India....This was commented on by Amartya Sen even before he won the Nobel Prize in 1998...

One thing is that the human resource of Central North India (UP+Bihar) is ABNORMALLY low...and probably holds India back by 30% or more...more due to cultural issues..same may be said for Madhya Pradesh as well...It is due to the parochial culture entrenched there...frankly UP+Bihar are a curse on India
 
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Surya 1

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Why Bangladesh has left India far behind

Ajit RanadeMar 30, 2021, 08:17 IST

In just 10 short years, the country has surpassed its much bigger neighbour on several economic and social development metrics

Just 14 years ago, in 2007, the per capita income of Bangladesh was half of that of India. And last year, it surpassed India. The second decade of the millennium has been a golden one for Bangladesh, which the rest of the emerging market economies can only envy. Remember, in 2010, the world was still trying to recover from the crash-landing of Lehman and the unleashing of a global financial crisis. A year later, the European economies were hit by a crisis of sovereign debt, which might have spilled over into a full-blown banking crisis. As if that wasn’t enough trouble for the global economy, in 2013 we had the famous episode of the ‘taper tantrum’. The word ‘taper’ was uttered rather casually by Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the US, to indicate that the huge monetary expansion in the wake of the Lehman crisis, should now be “tapered”. Mind you, he said taper, ie, only reduce the enormous pace of expansion of money supply.

This mere word sent the world’s financial markets into a spasm, and capital flowed out of emerging market economies in sudden panic. India was counted as one among the “fragile five” economies. Our exchange rate dropped, inflation was in the double digits, interest rates spiked and bank loans were turning bad in big numbers. Bad news for the macroeconomy all round; and to cap it all, was a series of corruption scandals which really soured the mood of investors. Soon after, a new government took office in India, the exchange rate stabilized and foreign money started flowing back in, although in 2016, demonetisation was another avoidable disruptive negative shock. Since then, we’ve had the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax, a new insolvency law and a bunch of other reforms. But the fact is that for the last five years, India’s economic growth rate has continuously declined, and the Covid year has made it go into a deep recession.

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All this background is necessary to appreciate just how well Bangladesh has done in this past decade, which culminates with the golden jubilee of its independence. While India’s GDP growth went down from 8 to minus 10 in five years, Bangladesh’s growth rates have been 7.3, 8, 7.9, 8.2 and 4.2. Even in the pandemic year, it will have a positive growth. And next year it will accelerate. During this past decade, high economic growth has made it possible to reduce poverty from 19 to nine per cent, as measured by the World Bank norm. Export growth has been nearly 15 per cent for several years, making it a global leader in garments export, which accounts for nearly 80 per cent of its exports, and provides five million jobs, mostly to women. Its garments exports - at $33 billion - are more in absolute, not relative, terms than India. By contrast India’s merchandise exports have had a cumulative zero growth in the past five years. In this past decade Bangladesh’s IT exports have gone up from $800 million to $5 billion which, adjusted for its population, is equivalent to $35 billion dollars for India. That’s quite amazing for a late starter in IT and software exports. Foreign direct investment during the decade has gone up from less than a billion dollars in 2009 to nearly $4 billion now (equivalent to India getting $28 billion, adjusted for population). Inbound remittances from non-resident Bangladeshis are about $21 billion, which would be $140 billion, proportionately for India. Bangladesh is building a network of 100 special economic zones to enable further FDI. It has nearly completed a 6.15 kilometre multipurpose road and rail bridge over the river Padma which now links 21 southern districts to the capital city of Dhaka. This connectivity alone could add one per cent to GDP growth, as per expectations.

All illustrations: Ajit Ninan

There are other metrics where Bangladesh has done very well. Its female labour force participation rate is 37 per cent, as against 21 per cent for India. In the global hunger index, it is ranked 88, as against India at 102, out of 117 countries. Life expectancy in Bangladesh is 72 years versus India’s 69. In the gender parity index, it is ranked at 50, as against India at 112, out of 154 countries.

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By any measure, these are impressive achievements for a country born out of a violent and bloody civil war in which three million people were killed, and which was written off rather contemptuously and arrogantly by Henry Kissinger as a “basket case”. In its 50th year, not everything is hunky dory of course, and there are serious challenges of corruption, civil liberties and development lying ahead. India would do well to sign a special free trade treaty to exploit mutual growth potential. A recent World Bank report says with an FTA and better rail, road, water and air connectivity, Bangladesh exports to India can rise by 297 per cent, and India’s exports could rise by 172 per cent.

Imagine trucks from Agartala transiting through Bangladesh to reach Kolkata, and thereby cutting the distance by 1,200 km. And if India’s Northeast can access Chittagong port, which is just 200 km away, the potential for increased exports to the rest of the world is huge.

India and Bangladesh have vast synergies to exploit in trade, commerce, investment, energy security (natural gas), logistics and also geopolitics. For the moment, this is Bangladesh’s moment to savour its achievements of a glorious decade.

Ajit Ranade is an economist and writes on the wheels that make Mumbai run — money and economy
(Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's own)

Bangladesh is a proud country with rich cultural harrirage. Best of luck to Bangladesh.
 

Surya 1

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Why Sri Lanka has left India far behind?

Sri Lanka bombed itself to pieces in the civil war, and yet, just 10 years after, they overtook the rest of South Asia.

@Uguduwa ?
How Srilanka has left India behind? They have to mortgage their port to China for just 1 bn USD for 99 years.
 

Type59

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India spent huge amounts of money undermining Pakistan. Today you see many people sharing beds in Indian hospitals. Congratulations on having wrong priorities.
 

Cheepek

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Hahaha, go read the news.. calling me ignorant ? That's rich coming from you.

Now, don't make even more of a joke of yourself, read up, learn and stay quiet.
Believe "news" and your per capita income changes every second! 🤣
What's the size of BD economy for FY ending 31 March 2021?
What's the size of Indian economy for FY ending 31 March 2021?
Let me know which "news" you've read that mentions both the figures.
 

DalalErMaNodi

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Believe "news" and your per capita income changes every second! 🤣
What's the size of BD economy for FY ending 31 March 2021?
What's the size of Indian economy for FY ending 31 March 2021?
Let me know which "news" you've read that mentions both the figures.

What is the Indian population ? What now, cat got your tongue ?



I'm referring to reports, not news unlike some WhatsApp university students here.
 

Valar.

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What is the Indian population ?
1.25 Billion officially?
1.3 Billion unoffiially?
1.39 Billion according to neutral estimates?

What I don't get which figure do they use to calculate per capita income. Difference between 1st and 3rd figure would be more than 10% reducing 2000 dollars to 1800. Also, after contraction of 10% in economy due to covid would also decrease their per captia by anther 10% to 1620 dollars.
 

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