• Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Why are Kashmiris sticking to failed strategies (namely militancy and Indo-Pak war)?

Discussion in 'World Affairs' started by Bharat Muslim, May 23, 2017.

  1. Bharat Muslim

    Bharat Muslim BANNED

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    Why are Kashmiris sticking to failed strategies (namely militancy and Indo-Pak war)?

    They should know that the strategies they have hitherto used have failed. Kashmiris have been trying these two options for 6 decades. It hasn't produced the result. Yet they are sticking to useless plans like hoping for a war and joining militancy in hordes. It doesn't work when Pakistan is so tiny and India is so big. Why then are Kashmiris sticking to failed strategies? Why aren't Kashmiris doing something that works?

    Pakistanis may not agree with this angle but the answer may be that the Kashmiri leadership may be covertly on India's payroll. The likes of popular Kashmiri leaders like Geelani and Yasin Malik may all be India's agents. These Indian agents who are hawks in public might actually be intentionally serving India's interests by misleading the Kashmiri youth and masses into doing something that doesn't work. Just as Gandhi was British agent and was used by British to lead India's entire population astray, Hurriyat and other popular Kashmiri leaders may be Indian agents who might be successfully teaching Kashmiri youth to adopt bad ideas in their struggle.

    How else would you explain that Kashmiris are still into stupid ideas like militancy against the giant country of India and hoping for India-Pakistan war?
     
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  2. sameerin

    sameerin FULL MEMBER

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    why every time you guys live in Hindu/muslim dilemma. actually reality is that religious mind set is destroying yourself , it is not harming india.

    for every single issue, you look from religious angle. then you also know what is happening with you guys from so called muslim brotherhood.

    and lets come on kashmir issue: yes he has very legitimate question from 70 years they are doing again n again same tactics. there is nothing change? so if you have answer then go ahead , if not then ignore. simple is that. it is sad to bring everytime hindu/muslim etc etc.
     
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  3. NakedLunch

    NakedLunch BANNED

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    LOL! What I find insulting is that you expect me to take that seriously. What do you want me to say to that?
     
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  4. abcxyz0000

    abcxyz0000 SENIOR MEMBER

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    So many generations of Kashmiri community have invested their time, energies and lives over this plan. Shouldn't this be a serious matter? And their methods haven't paid off. Why, just why aren't they changing their STRATEGY? Just who is misleading them?
     
  5. 313ghazi

    313ghazi SENIOR MEMBER

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    Actually the strategy works perfectly. If anything it needs to be re-ignited.

    For 40 years we Kashmiri's endured violence and oppression and hoped for a diplomatic solution. There was none. It is clear that we don't have support from the international community for our freedom struggle - other than lip service. As the years have gone by even lip service is disappearing.

    Only in the 80's as a response to extreme violence by the Indian occupiers did Kashmiri's turn to violence. The violence was successful. It pushed Indian occupiers onto the back foot - instead of harming Kashmiri's they were busy looking to protect themselves from freedom fighters. At the turn of the century huge swathes of the Kashmir valley were actually no-go areas for the Indian army. India regularly would call for ceasefires to then sit down at the table and talk. It was only because Pervez Musharraf buckled under pressure that the freedom fighting operations were reduced in scale.

    Conflicts around the world since then have shown how new militant tactics can defeat huge powerful occupying forces. In the past we saw Guerilla tactics successfully defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and Chechnya (even now they only had peace once they did a deal with the father of Ramzan Kadyrov). The same is true of the US defeat in Korea and Vietnam. In the post 911 evolved versions of these tactics have been equally effective in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria.

    The Kashmiri freedom movement doesn't have a salafi flavour to it, you won't see the likes of Al Queda and ISIS attracted towards it, however there is no reason why the use of guerilla tactics cannot cause catastrophic damage to the Indian armed forces in Kashmir, forcing them to come to the negociating table.

    Now those days will return. Why?

    1. The US is defeated in Afghanistan and is no longer a threat to Pakistan
    2. China is investing in Pakistan therefore an attack by the US or India against Pakistan increases the chance of directly harming Chinese interests, risking a wider conflict.
    3. The Russians are wanting to get closer to Pakistan due to CPEC which will mean India is less likely to get political support from them in a conflict with Pakistan.
    4. Indian proxies in Afghanistan are being routed, our western border is becoming safer than ever.

    This means we have time and resource to focus on the east again.

    To win big you need to risk big. 911 was unfortunate for the Kashmiri cause and it resulted in a roll back. That time is over. Tipu Sultan said a day as a lion is better than a life as a jackal, we Kashmiri's have the same mentality. We won't be happy living as second class citizens.
     
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  6. NakedLunch

    NakedLunch BANNED

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    Good post.
     
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  7. Bharat Muslim

    Bharat Muslim BANNED

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    Okay. Tell me one thing. Why is it taking so long for a decisive result to emerge?
    If I am not wrong, the US-Vietnam war was shorter than this, right?
     
  8. scorpionx

    scorpionx PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Bad for them. Had it been an organised, peaceful movement by Kashmiri intelligentsia from both side, our position would have been precarious.
     
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  9. Bharat Muslim

    Bharat Muslim BANNED

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    Wrong. If their methods had been peaceful, Indian intelligence agencies would have bribed Kashmiri leadership and provoked them into militancy. And I think that's what is actually happening. India itself is orchestrating the violence in Kashmir.
     
  10. Talwar e Pakistan

    Talwar e Pakistan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Actually the resistance in Vietnam started in 1887; against all odds in a series of protests, riots, revolts and many 'full rebellions' - they finally achieved total independence.
     
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  11. scorpionx

    scorpionx PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Sorry, I don't believe in conspiracy theories.
     
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  12. Bharat Muslim

    Bharat Muslim BANNED

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    Err. I am scratching my head. I thought US came to Vietnam only after 1950.
     
  13. Talwar e Pakistan

    Talwar e Pakistan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Before that, they had to deal with the French.
     
  14. 313ghazi

    313ghazi SENIOR MEMBER

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    It is not an ideal solution. Bloodshed is the last resort, nobody wants to see young men and women die, to see children orphaned, Indian, Kashmiri, whatever - they are all humans.

    Unfortunately in the absence of any other effective solution, what choice do the people of Kashmir have? Diplomacy has failed time and time again because there is no pressure on India and Pakistan to move this forward.

    If the international community was serious, they could organise a peace keeping force tomorrow and arrange a post by post simultaneous pull back of Pakistani and Indian forces from the LoC and then Kashmir as a wider area. This would then set the platform for all people of Kashmiri origin who can prove their residence from partition to return to Kashmir and then have a referendum on the future of Kashmir.

    They don't get, Kashmiri's are not worth the political capital to the wider world community. Instead our only option is the military approach.

    If we can raise the body count it will make it politically difficult for India to hold onto Kashmir, even more so if the conflict leads to the risk of a wider indo-pak conflict. As the stage sets for nuclear war, the international community will intervene to make both parties back down. It won't help Kashmiri's, only attrition will do that.
     
  15. LeGenD

    LeGenD ELITE MEMBER

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    Militant tactics stand no chance against a military giant in the battlefield; occupation becomes a costly objective over time (on the other hand) due to non-stop flow of investment in logistics, operations and rebuilding effort in a region mired in internal strife and corruption.

    In short, rebuilding effort does not succeeds in a state that is mired in corruption and internal strife. Militancy contributes to its destabilization and cultivates an environment of fear and projection, discouraging foreign investment in this manner. Eventually the occupation is called off.

    Now, some history lessons:

    War in Korea was conventional in nature; US lost in Korea due to full-scale Chinese military intervention at a later stage when US had almost conquered entire Korean peninusula. However, US was able to convert this defeat into a stalemate by pulling out of North Korea but holding its ground in South Korea. Chinese forces could not advance through the border. And contrary to popular belief, North Korea was a powerful state during this time with a highly disciplined and professional army. South Korea stood no chance against North Korea back then.

    War in Vietnam is one of its kind. Terrain in Vietnam is largely unsuited for large-scale conventional thrusts and WW2 era technology was not netting good results there either. On top of this, bureaucratic hurdles, political instability and racial tensions at home had a trickle down effect on the cohesion of US military units. Mounting casualties were not helping the situation either. Conversely, Vietcong was a highly motivated, disciplined and organized resistance movement with full backing of China and USSR. This front against the Communist bloc turned out to be a disaster for the US.

    Heck:

    - France failed in Vietnam
    - US failed in Vietnam
    - China failed in Vietnam

    Vietnam is an Asian tiger in true sense of the word in modern times.

    However, US military is an entirely different beast now. It will soundly defeat Vietnam in a war today.

    Finally, American (conventional) military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have always been success stories. However, occupations did not work out due to reasons cited above.

    Highly organized militant forces like Mahdi Army in Iraq and Taliban in Afghanistan utterly failed to handle US forces in the battlefield and suffered tremendous losses in such campaigns. They simply switched their tactics to sabotaging American rebuilding effort; the regimes that propped up in both states, bore the brunt of such attacks. In this manner, Mahdi Army and Taliban gave the impression that war is far from over in Iraq and Afghanistan respectively and such propaganda convinced American people to push for de-escalation in these fronts.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
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